论我国人民币汇率对国内通货膨胀的影响

本文将人民币名义有效汇率(NEER)和海外人民币无本金交割远期汇率(NDF)引入分析国内通货膨胀的框架中,对中国的通货膨胀进行研究分析.结论认为:人民币即期汇率和预期汇率都对国内通货膨胀具有一定的传导机制,并且人民币预期汇率对通胀的影响比即期汇率大得多.文章的结论启示我们:当前治理通货膨胀不应对升值人民币即期汇率期望过高,而应更多的将注意力放在如何稳定和调节人民币升值预期上.     

论我国人民币汇率对国内通货膨胀的影响

本文将人民币名义有效汇率（NEER）和海外人民币无本金交割选期汇率（NDF）引入分析国内通货膨胀的框架中，对中国的通货膨胀进行研究分析。结论议为：人民币即期汇率和预期汇率都对国内通货膨胀具有一定的传导机制，并且人民币预期汇率对通胀的影响比即期汇率大得多。文章的结论启示我们：当前治理通货膨胀不应对升值人民币即期汇率期望过高。而应更多的将注意力放在如何稳定和调节人民币升值预期上。     

人民币汇率变动与通货膨胀的动态关系

文章试图研究通货膨胀与汇率变动两者间的关系。通过分析1998—2010年期间中国通货膨胀的动态传导机制和驱动因素,文章发现,人民币升值带来的流动性过剩所导致的通胀效应远超过升值对通胀的抑制作用。为应对通货膨胀,我国需要有针对性的对当前的货币政策体系进行变革,从过度依赖数量性政策工具向以汇率和数量性政策工具并重的政策体系过渡。     

人民币汇率变动对国内通货膨胀率的传递效应分析

在当前通货膨胀预期不断增强的背景下,如何稳定物价总水平已成为央行金融宏观调控的重要目标.2010年6月份我国重启人民币汇率改革,人民币汇率弹性增强.本文运用VAR模型研究了人民币汇率变动对以CPI为衡量指标的我国通货膨胀水平的影响,结果验证了学界关于人民币汇率升值能够通过传递效应降低国内的通货膨胀压力的观点,并提出相关政策建议.     

人民币汇率变动与通货膨胀——兼论新汇制对货币政策的改善效应

本文通过构建人民币汇率与通货膨胀率的传导模型,探讨汇改前后两个时期人民币汇率与通货膨胀的动态相关性。实证研究显示,短期内人民币汇率对通货膨胀有一定的逆向冲击,这种逆向冲击的强度在汇改后表现得更强,从长期来看,两者协整且呈显著的正相关性,但短期内人民币升值带来的通货膨胀抑制效应弱于长期内人民币升值对通货膨胀的驱动效应。从这个角度来看,新汇制对我国货币政策绩效的改善效应并不明显。     

人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响

改革开放以来,我国凭借国内生产的成本优势在国际贸易中获取了大量利益。出口刺激了经济的快速增长,然而持续顺差带来的本币升值问题却成为我国经济发展中的两难。虽然汇率升值可能造成出口部门竞争力下降,但是,理论上讲,汇率的升值也能够缓解国内通货膨胀的压力,并且能够降低进口原材料价格,从而降低国内的生产成本。然而,自汇改以来,人民币的升值并没有减缓通胀压力,相反的,升值一直伴随着物价的上涨,于此同时,人民币汇率、国内资产价格和物价之间的联动越来越明显。本文从人民币汇率预期、资产价格和物价的关系入手,研究人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响。结果表明,人民币升值预期会导致我国国内生产成本的上涨,即成本优势的丧失。     

财经视窗

人民币汇率正在稳中趋升人民币汇率问题专家陈全庚认为，从长期趋势看，未来人民币有可能对美元保持稳中趋升的走势。据统计，从１９９４年汇率并轨时算起，如果考虑通货膨胀因素，人民币对美元汇率升值了４０％多，远高于名义升值５％的幅度。根据国际货币基金组织的测算，人民币汇率的综合实际升值２０％多，并且这种升值伴随着中国外汇储备的大幅增加。主要原因：（１）中国目前总储蓄大于投资，国内资源尚未得到充分利用，经济增长低于潜在的水平。从长远看，中国经济发展还有相当大的潜力。（２）中国经济规模已名列世界前茅，国内市场…     

升值对抑制通胀有多大影响？

关于人民币升值能否缓解日益严峻的通胀压力,舆论界和学界存在很大争议。本文认为虽然从长期来看,人民币升值无疑会抑制通货膨胀,但从短期来看,由于价格传导机制不畅、进出口刚性和汇率政策的外部效应,人民币升值对通货膨胀的影响将十分有限     

股票市场、人民币汇率与中国货币需求

本文在开放经济条件下考察了1999年1月至2010年5月期间中国货币需求函数的特征。研究结果表明通胀预期、股票价格波动和人民币汇率是影响长期货币需求的重要因素。股票收益率和通胀预期都是衡量企业和居民持有货币的重要机会成本变量,但通胀预期占主导地位。人民币升值和升值预期通过货币替代效应和国际资本流动效应增加了长期实际货币余额需求。研究结果还表明在样本期间人民币汇率波动的短期国际资本流动效应是造成中国A股市场动荡加剧的重要原因之一。这意味着中国货币政策的制定与实施应该至少关注资产价格波动和考虑人民币汇率因素,尤其是当前应特别注重稳定人民币升值预期。     

人民币汇率政策：挑战与取向

人民币汇率政策面临的挑战 在持续不断的人民币升值预期的驱动下，境外投机性热钱大量流人中国。除了国际收支账户中错误项和遗漏项数额增大外，通过报高出口价格通过贸易项下流入的热钱也大幅度增加。这种状况致使中国外汇储备急剧增加，人民币汇率政策面临着严峻的挑战。     

Ireland's innovative governmental policies promoting internationalisation

The importance of innovation is reflected in the policy strategies that have been adopted by countries that have gained competitive advantage over the last two decades. In today's competitive global economy, Ireland has been acknowledged for its governmental policies and policy dynamics that have created a competitive market site for FDI. These policies have been based on continual policy innovation. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the governmental policies and policy dynamics within the Irish context of internationalisation. From this analysis a model of government influence on FDI in Ireland is developed. The main conclusions are that the success of the Irish model of internationalisation can be attributed to its innovative character. If Ireland's success is to extend into the future, it will have to continue to pursue innovation in the approach it adopts to internationalisation.     

Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it?

A large sample of developed and emerging economies is utilized to investigate import exchange rate pass-through. Panel models reveal that various economic aspects of the destination country can explain about one third of the total variation in pass-through elasticities and the remaining variation comes largely in the form of unobserved country-specific effects. Inflation, exchange rate volatility, openness and relative wealth play a clear role as drivers of emerging markets’ pass-through whereas the output gap and protectionism appear influential more generally. Nonlinearity regarding large-versus-small changes in the exchange rate is quite pervasive. Our evidence challenges the widely-held view that pass-through has been universally falling in developed markets and that it is higher for emerging markets. The economic drivers are shown to play a role as out-of-sample predictors of pass-through. The findings confirm pricing-to-market theories and have implications for the optimal conduct of monetary policy.     

Financial flows,financial crises,and global imbalances

In this lecture I document the proliferation of gross international asset and liability positions and discuss some consequences for individual countries’ external adjustment processes and for global financial stability. In light of the rapid growth of gross global financial flows and the serious risks associated with them, one might wonder about the continuing relevance of the net financial flow measured by the current account balance. I argue that global current account imbalances remain an essential target for policy scrutiny, for financial as well as macroeconomic reasons. Nonetheless, it is critically important for policymakers to monitor as well the rapidly evolving structure of global gross assets and liabilities.     

Structural breaks in volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non-OECD real exchange rates

This paper attempts to determine whether or not nominal exchange rate regimes affect the volatility of bilateral and effective real exchange rates. To that end, we examine the real exchange rate behaviour for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries during the 1960–2006 period, therefore covering both the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973. We make use of an econometric methodology based on the Hansen's (Hansen, B.E., 1997. Approximate asymptotic P values for structural-change tests. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15 (1), 60–67) approximation to the p-values of the supreme, exponential and average statistics developed by Andrews (Andrews, D., 1993. Test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica 61 (4), 821–856) and Andrews and Ploberger (Andrews, D., Ploberger, W., 1994. Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica 62 (6), 1383–1414). This methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p-values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates. Results suggest that there is clear evidence in favour of the non-neutrality of nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility for developed countries, but not in the case of developing or emerging countries.     

Have domestic or foreign factors driven European external imbalances?

This paper examines whether domestic or foreign net saving predominantly influences an economy’s international borrowing and lending with reference to the experience of western European economies that have had sizable current account surpluses and deficits since the turn of the century. It proposes that if an international lender country’s current account surplus is positively (negatively) related to its real long term interest rate, then foreign (domestic) factors are driving its external imbalance. On the contrary, for a foreign borrower country if its current account deficit is positively (negatively) related to its real long term interest rate, domestic (foreign) factors drive its external imbalance. On this basis, it shows econometrically for major European lender economies, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Sweden, that external imbalances this decade were mainly determined by foreign factors, though by domestic factors for Norway. For major borrower economies, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and the United Kingdom, the results were not significant implying that neither domestic nor foreign factors predominated over this time.     

A portfolio balance approach to the Canadian-U.S. exchange rate

An empirical portfolio balance model based on Branson and Henderson [Branson, W. H., & Henderson, D. W. (1985). The specification and influence of assets markets. In: Jones R. W., Kenen, P. B. (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics, Volume 2, Elsevier, Amsterdam] is specified for the Canadian-U.S. exchange rate over the floating exchange rate period. Empirical implementation reveals two cointegrating vectors that closely, although not perfectly, match the home and foreign asset demands of the theoretical model. Furthermore, the exchange rate is important in the error correction process. Finally, although the significance is quantitatively and statistically modest, a simplified version of the empirical model resulting from general-to-specific procedures is able to beat a random walk at some out-of-sample forecast horizons.     

Noneconomic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties

We examine the role of noneconomic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as environmental treaties, environmental engagement tends to encourage international lending. Countries with such noneconomic partnerships also find it easier to engage in economic exchanges since they face the possibility that debt default might also spill over to hinder their noneconomic relationships. We present a theoretical model of these ideas and then verify their empirical importance using a bilateral cross-section of data on international cross-holdings of assets and environmental treaties. Our results support the notion that international environmental cooperation facilitates economic exchange.     

Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes—A Trap?

We analyze the role of an exchange rate peg as a commitment mechanism to achieve inflation stability when multiple equilibria are possible. We show that there are ex ante large gains from choosing a more conservative regime not only in order to mitigate inflation bias from time inconsistency but also to avoid high inflation equilibria. In these circumstances, using a pegged exchange rate as an anti-inflation commitment device can create a "trap" whereby the regime initially confers gains in anti-inflation credibility but ultimately results in an exit occasioned by a big enough adverse real shock that creates large welfare losses to the economy.     

Do improvements in government quality necessarily reduce the incidence of costly sudden stops?

Sudden stops have been linked to a number of financial crises in emerging market countries. While a large literature has developed emphasizing the importance of institutions and governance in reducing economic volatility, this paper finds that the effect of government quality on the incidence of sudden stops is non-linear. Initial improvements in governance actually increase the incidence of costly sudden stops. A possible explanation is that improved governance encourages capital inflows that can overwhelm banking systems in countries with weak institutions. What is striking is that this result holds for a large number of countries including those with average levels of institutional quality that already receive considerable inflows. Eventually, however, improving institutions does reduce the frequency of sudden stops, allowing countries to enjoy the benefits of financial globalization with fewer risks.     

Globalization,exports, and effective exchange rate indices

This paper offers a new way of compiling effective exchange rate indices, which is then shown to perform generally better in prototype equations explaining total real exports than other published indices. Researchers can use this method to compile effective exchange rates, real or nominal, readily for any country. The generally superior performance, based on cointegration tests using data from four major economies, four Latin American countries, and four South East Asian countries, suggests the proposed index which uses GDP weights rather than trade weights, is more appropriate in a highly globalized world. Intensified globalization in the past two decades appears indicated by the higher elasticities of exports with respect to the real effective exchange rate over time.