Reversal of 3‐day losers and continuation of 3‐day winners on the NASDAQ

Using only the 200 large-cap securities that make up the NYSE 100 and NASDAQ 100, this study investigates 130 randomly selected formation periods from January 2000 through December 2012. During these formation periods, the three worst and three best performing stocks (based on excess return) are flagged. Once flagged, the subsequent 10-day holding period excess returns are calculated. Results indicate that NYSE securities demonstrate significant return reversal, but not return momentum. Conversely, the worst performing NASDAQ securities demonstrate return reversal, whereas the best performing NASDAQ securities demonstrate return momentum. Results are robust to the number of best and worst stocks that are flagged. Results are also robust to other combinations of formation and holding period lengths.     

Consumption growth predictability and asset prices

We derive and test a consumption-based intertemporal asset pricing model in which an asset earns a risk premium if it performs poorly when expected future consumption growth deteriorates. The predictability of consumption growth combined with the recursive preference delivers news about future consumption growth an additional risk factor, in addition to news about current consumption growth. We model the consumption growth dynamics using a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure with a set of instrumental variables commonly used for forecasting future economic growth. Our VAR estimation provides strong empirical support for future consumption growth predictability. The cross-sectional test shows that the model explains reasonably well the dispersion in average excess returns of 25 portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market, as well as 25 portfolios sorted on size and long-term return reversal. Growth stocks and long-term winners underperform value stocks and long-term losers, respectively, because growth stocks and long-term winners hedge adverse changes in the future consumption growth opportunities.     

Time series reversal in trend-following strategies

This paper empirically studies the reversal pattern following the formation of trend-following signals in the time series context. This reversal pattern is statistically significant and usually occurs between 12 and 24 months after the formation of trend-following signals. Employing a universe of 55 liquid futures, we find that instruments with sell signals in the trend-following portfolio (‘losers’) contribute to this type of reversal, even if their profits are not realised. The instruments with buy signals in the trend-following portfolio (‘winners’) contribute much less. A double-sorted investment strategy based on both return continuation and reversal yields to portfolio gains which are significantly higher than that of the corresponding trend-following strategy.     

Fundamental strength and short-term return reversal

We document that the fundamental strength (FSCORE) of a firm exerts a significant influence on the performance of short-term reversal strategies. Past losers with strong fundamentals significantly outperform past winners with weak fundamentals. Our FSCORE approach is complementary to Da et al. (2014) cash flow news metrics based on analysts’ forecast revisions in that many firms do not have analyst following. Our approach also seems capable of capturing the lagged effects from past fundamental news shocks. After controlling for fundamental strength, we find that investor sentiment plays a more dominant role than do liquidity shocks in explaining return reversal.     

An examination of the relation between asymmetric risk measures,prior returns and expected daily stock returns

We use a sample of individual firm stock returns over the 1988–2009 time period to determine whether: (1) expected daily returns are related to asymmetric risk measures, (2) expected daily returns are related to the directional change of the prior day's price, and (3) our results are robust to the addition of firm size, book-to-market equity and liquidity. We find that investors are compensated for asymmetric risk; however, the positive risk–return relation is present only for our smallest firm quintile. We find a short-term return reversal present in all subgroups, except for the largest firms in our sample. We also document that the low volatility anomaly may be related to firm size and liquidity.     

A conditional multifactor analysis of return momentum

Although the Fama–French three-factor model captures most CAPM anomalies, it still fails to explain return momentum. This paper shows that the incorporation of conditioning information into an asset-pricing model is one way to capture return momentum. Results from the conditional regression with linear exposures in the instruments show clear evidence that both small minus big (SMB) and high minus low (HML) risks are time varying and that momentum and reversal return patterns have different time-varying risk characteristics. The conditional Fama–French regression model seems, however, to remain misspecified. Conversely, when the linearity assumption is relaxed and cross-sectional restrictions are imposed, the conditional pricing model appears to capture both short-term momentum and long-term reversal.     

Cashflow risk,systematic earnings revisions,and the cross-section of stock returns

The returns of stocks are partially driven by changes in their expected cashflow. Using revisions in analyst earnings forecasts, we construct an analyst earnings beta that measures the covariance between the cashflow innovations of an asset and those of the market. A higher analyst earnings beta implies greater sensitivity to marketwide revisions in expected cashflow, and therefore higher systematic risk. Our analyst earnings beta captures exposure to macroeconomic fluctuations and has a positive risk premium that provides a partial explanation for the value premium, size premium, and long-term return reversals. From 1984 to 2005, 55.1% of the return variation across book-to-market, size, and long-term return reversal portfolios is captured by their analyst earnings betas.     

Reversal and momentum patterns in weekly stock returns: European evidence

We analyze short‐term reversal and medium‐term momentum patterns in weekly stock returns in Europe. Focusing on raw and stock‐specific returns, our empirical results show for both return specifications (a) a negative relation between weekly past returns and future returns in the short run and (b) a positive relation in the medium run. However, returns from reversal and momentum strategies based on stock‐specific returns are less volatile. In further analyses, we find short‐term reversal and medium‐term momentum patterns to be connected to stock characteristics. Looking at the potential causes of these effects, our results do not support the idea that short‐term reversal in weekly stock returns is due to an over‐ or underreaction to firm‐specific news nor that it is mainly driven by illiquidity. Medium‐term momentum in weekly stock returns, on the other hand, can be connected to behavioral biases. Our concluding tests confirm that our findings are robust among industries, in subperiods, for the January effect and in varying market states. Finally, while medium‐term momentum strategies remain profitable after accounting for transaction costs, short‐term reversal strategies can be mainly explained by transaction costs due to their high turnover.     

Profitable candlestick trading strategies—The evidence from a new perspective

This paper aims to investigate the profitability of two-day candlestick patterns by buying on bullish (bearish) patterns and holding until bearish (bullish) patterns occur. Our data set includes daily opening, high, low, and closing prices of component stocks in the Taiwan Top 50 Tracker Fund for the period from 29 October 2002 through 31 December 2008. We examine three bullish reversal patterns and three bearish reversal patterns. We find that three bullish reversal patterns are profitable in the Taiwan stock market. For robustness checks, we evaluate the applicability of our results to diverse market conditions, conduct an out-of-sample test and employ a bootstrap methodology.     

Risks and rewards for momentum and reversal portfolios

Rational asset pricing implies a positive relation between the expected risk-adjusted return and the volatility of a factor-mimicking portfolio. The relation for the momentum portfolio is weak after its return is adjusted for the risks associated with the market return, the size factor, and the book-to-market factor. However, the relation is significantly positive and captures most of the average return on the momentum portfolio after the return is adjusted for the market return and the risk associated with the short-term reversal portfolio return. The result supports the hypothesis that there is a common factor underlying both momentum and short-term reversal. The dynamics of the factor loadings and the correlation structure of the underlying factors have important implications for the risk prices associated with the factor-mimicking portfolios and the risk–return trade-off for momentum and reversal portfolios.     

Are return seasonalities due to risk or mispricing?

Stocks tend to earn high or low returns relative to other stocks every year in the same month (Heston and Sadka, 2008). We show these seasonalities are balanced out by seasonal reversals: a stock that has a high expected return relative to other stocks in one month has a low expected return relative to other stocks in the other months. The seasonalities and seasonal reversals add up to zero over the calendar year, which is consistent with seasonalities being driven by temporary mispricing. Seasonal reversals are economically large and statistically highly significant, and they resemble, but are distinct from, long-term reversals.     

A股个股回报率的惯性与反转

本文在已有文献基础上系统研究A股个股回报率的惯性与反转现象。本文发现,A股个股回报率在多个时间频率上存在明显的反转,而惯性仅在超短期的日回报率和特定时段的周回报率上存在。本文还发现,交易量对于惯性和反转有显著影响,反转发生的时间有缩短的倾向,且价格变化的速度有随时间推移而加快的倾向。上述发现表明我国A股市场不满足弱有效市场假说,但是表现出一些不同于发达国家市场的规律,且规律随着时间而变化。     

Dissecting the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly

The idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) anomaly, documented in Ang, et al. (2006), has garnered a great deal of attention in the literature. Yet questions remain regarding the robustness and pervasiveness of the IVOL anomaly, with a particular concern that the IVOL anomaly might simply be the manifestation of market microstructure effect. In this paper, we show that the IVOL anomaly is strong and pervasive after we exclude stocks most susceptible to market microstructure noise — such as microcap stocks, penny stocks, and stocks with strong short-term return reversal. These results are robust to equal-weighting or value-weighting stocks in the IVOL portfolios. Our findings suggest that rather than being the cause of the anomaly, market microstructure noise actually weakens the IVOL anomaly.     

Risk diversification gains from metropolitan housing assets

The study analyzes the roles of metropolitan housing assets in risk diversification by assessing intertemporal hedging demands for multi‐asset portfolios, which include metropolitan houses, REITs, stocks, bonds, and riskless assets. Investors substitute housing assets in high‐population MSAs with those in low‐population cities, and they switch their holdings of housing assets to less risky bonds in the 2007–2008 housing bust. The findings from the multi‐period portfolio choice problem provide evidence for momentum reversal since forward‐looking investors substitute bottom metropolitan housing assets for top ones in the housing boom, and the GTTB index and the lagged REIT price return have negative impacts on various asset returns.     

Momentum strategies in commodity futures markets

The article tests for the presence of short-term continuation and long-term reversal in commodity futures prices. While contrarian strategies do not work, the article identifies 13 profitable momentum strategies that generate 9.38% average return a year. A closer analysis of the constituents of the long–short portfolios reveals that the momentum strategies buy backwardated contracts and sell contangoed contracts. The correlation between the momentum returns and the returns of traditional asset classes is also found to be low, making the commodity-based relative-strength portfolios excellent candidates for inclusion in well-diversified portfolios.     

Loss persistence and returns in the UK

In this study, we examine whether estimated loss reversal probabilities are fully reflected in UK stock market prices. Overall, we provide evidence of varying degrees and types of loss firm mispricing with respect to estimated loss reversal probabilities. In particular, a significant and positive relationship between loss reversal probability and annual returns is found only for firms with higher trading costs. When looking at monthly returns, however, especially for the financial statement release month subsequent to the loss year, a significant and positive relationship is found for all firms. Thus, the evidence is consistent with UK market participants not fully incorporating relevant information into the pricing of loss firms and, as a consequence, being surprised by the content of the earnings for many or all UK loss firms.     

Up and down together? On the linkage of momentum and reversal

This paper presents evidence of momentum and reversal being related phenomena in the German stock market. This finding contrasts Conrad and Yavuz's (2017) results for the US stock market. In the German stock market, the linkage of both phenomena is documented to be more pronounced after the turn of the millennium. In particular, low-risk stocks produce momentum, and high-risk stocks generate return reversal in momentum portfolios. Short-run momentum is consistently generated by the long winner leg, whereas long-run return reversal is due to the short loser leg of long-short portfolios in the German stock market.     

Momentum in stock returns: evidence from an emerging stock market

This study examines the presence and sources of momentum profits in the Dhaka stock exchange (DSE). Although the short-term reversal and intermediate-term momentum are found to be evident, short-term reversal is not as consistent and significant as intermediate-term momentum. Further examination shows that momentum profits in the DSE cannot be explained by the rational source like market factor but can be explained by the size factor. We argue that presence of large number of small stocks and lack of arbitrage opportunity could be the possible causes of momentum effect in the DSE.     

Does the Prohibition of Long-lived Asset Impairment Reversals Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from a Quasi-experiment in China

China modified the asset impairment standard in 2007, prohibiting long-lived asset impairment reversal, which it had previously allowed. Using this setting as a quasi-experiment, we investigate how the prohibition of long-lived asset impairment reversal affects corporate technological innovation. Our empirical results demonstrate that the prohibition of impairment reversal has negative impacts on corporate innovation outputs. Further analyses reveal that the negative effect of this prohibition on corporate innovation is more prominent in companies with high discretionary accruals, high shareholding ratios for the largest shareholders, and companies in highly competitive markets.     

Connected Stocks

We connect stocks through their common active mutual fund owners. We show that the degree of shared ownership forecasts cross‐sectional variation in return correlation, controlling for exposure to systematic return factors, style and sector similarity, and many other pair characteristics. We argue that shared ownership causes this excess comovement based on evidence from a natural experiment—the 2003 mutual fund trading scandal. These results motivate a novel cross‐stock‐reversal trading strategy exploiting information contained in ownership connections. We show that long‐short hedge fund index returns covary negatively with this strategy, suggesting these funds may exacerbate this excess comovement.