Future generations and nuclear power—A pluralistic economic appraisal

Nuclear power is a growth industry despite the unresolved problem of waste management. This paper considers the case of Turkey which has a fast growing economy, and where the government has given permission to a Russian company to build a large plant in Mersin, Southern Turkey. Nuclear projects have unique features such as expensive set-up costs, long and expensive decommissioning processes (much longer than construction periods) and the issue of safe disposal of large quantities of highly radioactive wastes, some of which will remain active for many thousands of years, that may create environmental problems especially for future generations. The main focus in this paper is on the role of discounting in economic appraisal of nuclear projects in Turkey and elsewhere. Here we use three discounting methods in economic appraisal of the Turkish plant; standard discounting, the UK government’s method of declining discount rate and the intergenerational discounting method. The first two tend to yield somewhat favourable results under the assumption of no interruption in supply due to technical reasons or a major accident. The intergenerational discounting method, on the other hand, which treats all generational cohorts involved equitably, does not yield results as favourable as the other criteria.     

The Role of Real Options in Capital Budgeting: Theory and Practice1

Most discussions of capital budgeting take for granted that discounted cash flow (DCF) and real options valuation (ROV) are very different methods that are meant to be applied in different circumstances. Such discussions also typically assume that DCF is “easy” and ROV is “hard”—or at least dauntingly unfamiliar—and that, mainly for this reason, managers often use DCF and rarely ROV. This paper argues that all three assumptions are wrong or at least seriously misleading. DCF and ROV both assign a present value to risky future cash flows. DCF entails discounting expected future cash flows at the expected return on an asset of comparable risk. ROV uses “risk‐neutral” valuation, which means computing expected cash flows based on “risk‐neutral” probabilities and discounting these flows at the risk‐free rate. Using a series of single‐period examples, the author demonstrates that both methods, when done correctly, should provide the same answer. Moreover, in most ROV applications—those where there is no forward price or “replicating portfolio” of traded assets—a “preliminary” DCF valuation is required to perform the risk‐neutral valuation. So why use ROV at all? In cases where project risk and the discount rates are expected to change over time, the risk‐neutral ROV approach will be easier to implement than DCF (since adjusting cash flow probabilities is more straightforward than adjusting discount rates). The author uses multi‐period examples to illustrate further both the simplicity of ROV and the strong assumptions required for a typical DCF valuation. But the simplicity that results from discounting with risk‐free rates is not the only benefit of using ROV instead of—or together with—traditional DCF. The use of formal ROV techniques may also encourage managers to think more broadly about the flexibility that is (or can be) built into future business decisions, and thus to choose from a different set of possible investments. To the extent that managers who use ROV have effectively adopted a different business model, there is a real and important difference between the two valuation techniques. Consistent with this possibility, much of the evidence from both surveys and academic studies of managerial behavior and market pricing suggests that managers and investors implicitly take account of real options when making investment decisions.     

VALUING REAL OPTIONS: CAN RISK‐ADJUSTED DISCOUNTING BE MADE TO WORK?

This paper examines three alternative approaches to valuing real options: (1) the standard option pricing technique using "risk-neutral" probabilities; (2) the use of risk-adjusted discount rates; and (3) discounting certainty-equivalent values with a riskless discount rate. As suggested by the title, a question of particular interest is whether an approach based on risk-adjusted discount rates can be "made to work" for valuing options. The answer is yes. Indeed, the authors show that any of the three approaches will provide a correct valuation if properly employed.
Nevertheless, there are important differences in the information requirements associated with each of the three methods. Another important issue is the relative degree of difficulty in calculating the correct option value. When these two considerations are taken into account, the risk-neutral option pricing procedure generally proves to be the preferred method. It tends to be computationally more convenient—often much more convenient—and to require less information than either the risk-adjusted discounting or certainty-equivalent procedures.     

Discounting and intergenerational equity

In this article, the author discusses three criteria for decision making in issues involving intergenerational social choice. He describes the implications of the adoption of each of these criteria, using the analogy of different voting methods. The discounting method is relegated to a comparatively humble role, that of eliminating intergenerationally inefficient programmes ; the actual choice of a programme, in those areas in which a decision may have very long-term, intergenerational effects, will be made by reference to equity criteria. The author argues that, in questions of intergenerational equity, the real work begins where discounting ends.     

Discounting and the Treatment of Taxes in Impairment Reviews

Abstract:  IAS 36 requires an asset's recoverable amount to be measured by discounting its pre-tax rather than post-tax cash flows. Although defined so as to produce the same value, the pre-tax approach is claimed to be simpler and more reliable. The paper demonstrates that an appropriate pre-tax discount rate varies between assets with different tax depreciation schedules and that it changes over time. Hence, pre-tax discounting is likely to become complex. The paper advocates an amendment of the standard such that value in use is measured by company-specific after-tax cash flows, and such that deferred taxes are included in the impairment review.     

Executable declarative business rules and their use in electronic commerce

Business rules are statements which are used to run the activities of an organization. In the era of electronic commerce it is important for these rules to be represented explicitly, and to be automatically applicable. In this paper we argue that methods from the field of knowledge representation can be used for this purpose. In particular, we propose the use of defeasible reasoning, a simple but efficient reasoning method based on rules and priorities. We motivate the use of defeasible reasoning, give examples, describe two case studies, and outline current and future work in our research. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time Discounting and of the Cost of Capital in Government

The literature on public sector discounting has brought important insights, but there remain wide differences on some fundamental issues. This paper reviews the main conflicts and the reasons underlying them. It suggests practical procedures for discounting in government which are consistent with most of the literature but not with the ‘efficient market’ thesis that financial markets provide all the information needed to define these procedures.     

An overview of the valuation of collateralized derivative contracts

We consider the valuation of collateralized derivative contracts such as interest rate swaps or forward FX contracts. We allow for posting securities or cash in different currencies. In the latter case, we focus on using overnight index rates on the interbank market. Using time varying haircuts, we provide an intuitive way to derive the basic discounting results, keeping in line with the most standard theoretical and market views. In a number of cases associated with margining with major central counterparties, pricing rules for collateralized trades remain linear, thus the use of (multiple) discount curves. We also show how to deal with partial collateralization, involving haircuts, asymmetric CSA, counterparty risk and funding costs. We therefore intend to provide a unified view. Mathematical or legal details are not dealt with and we privilege financial insights and easy to grasp concepts and tools.     

Admissible uncertainty in the intertemporal asset pricing model

We embed the Sharpe-Lintner, two-parameter asset pricing theory in an intertemporal general equilibrium model. The investment opportunity set changes stochastically over time; in general the short-term and long-term interest rates and the distribution of the rate of return of the market portfolio are non-stationary. This non-stationarity, which is admissible in the Sharpe-Lintner model, has two implications: First, it may bias econometric methods which fail to explicitly take into account the non-stationarity. Second, the sequential application of the Sharpe-Lintner model in the discounting of stochastic cash flows becomes computationally complex and of little practical use.     

An empirical analysis of audit fee price competition after the Korean 1999 Omnibus Cartel Repeal Act

This study examines the audit service market in Korea after the 1999 Omnibus Cartel Repeal Act to determine if increased competition has led to audit fee discounting. Until 19 December 2001, when the Korean government enacted The Financial Supervisory Regulations, researchers could not address questions related to price competition in the Korean audit market due to data limitations. The new regulations allow researchers to examine audit effort for the first time because both audit hours and audit fees are now recommended disclosures. We use audit fee data of Korean companies for the 6-year period 1999–2004, and find evidence that total audit fees paid have been increasing but audit fees per hour have been decreasing. We also find that Big 5 auditing firms’ fees per hour are significantly lower than non-Big 5 auditing firms and are decreasing across time. These price pressures should be of concern to regulators and investors because prior research has demonstrated that price competition leads to discounting, which can result in unrealistically low audit fees and poor audit quality. Finally, as in previous research, we also find discounting of initial audit engagements in the Korean market.     

Unemployment insurance: Risk sharing versus efficiency

Two models of spot labor markets are presented in which labor suppliers have heterogeneous attitudes towards effort and in which uncertainty prevails on labor productivity and growth. The problem of selecting efficient rules to manage unemployment insurance (UI) systems is considered. We show that there does not exist any system which combines an efficient allocation of labor with an efficient allocation of risks among employees, unemployed workers and capital-owners. Pareto-efficient policy rules are a best compromise between these two conflicting objectives. It implies that productive efficiency could be improved in periods of mass unemployment by reducing UI benefits. That would be at the expense of more inefficiencies in the sharing of macroeconomic risks. At the optimum, the UI benefit is positively correlated to growth and it is negatively correlated to labor productivity.     

The discounting controversy of deferred income taxes

This article examines the controversy related to discounting deferred income taxes. A brief background is provided and then the controversy surrounding discounting is analyzed. It is concluded that discounting is too burdensome to consider implementing, and the FASB needs to look at the discounting issue more extensively.     

Misspecified Recovery

Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of those states as used by investors. To better understand the challenge in distinguishing investors' beliefs from risk‐adjusted discounting, we use Perron–Frobenius Theory to isolate a positive martingale component of the stochastic discount factor process. This component recovers a probability measure that absorbs long‐term risk adjustments. When the martingale is not degenerate, surmising that this recovered probability captures investors' beliefs distorts inference about risk‐return tradeoffs. Stochastic discount factors in many structural models of asset prices have empirically relevant martingale components.     

Martingales in life insurance

Abstract

This paper presents a general probabilistic model, including stochastic discounting, for life insurance contracts, either a single policy or a portfolio of policies. In § 4 we define prospective reserves and annual losses in terms of our model and we show that these are generalisations of the corresponding concepts in conventional life insurance mathematics. Our main results are in § 5 where we use the martingale property of the loss process to derive upper bounds for the probability of ruin for the portfolio. These results are illustrated by two numerical examples in § 6.     

Revisiting the Illiquidity Discount for Private Companies: A New (and “Skeptical”) Restricted‐Stock Study

Data from restricted‐stock studies are routinely used by business‐valuation analysts and small‐business appraisers to estimate discounts for lack of marketability, or DLOMs, which are then applied in the valuation of private companies. The rationale for the use of such DLOMs is that, even after an investor is compensated for the risk associated with holding an asset, an asset held unwillingly (due to illiquidity) must be worth less than if the asset were held by choice. But the same rationale can also be applied to the DLOM on riskless assets (such as Treasuries), and the evidence is consistent with a DLOM on such assets of only about 2.5%. This in turn suggests that any DLOM larger than 2.5% amounts to a second round of discounting for risk (where the first round occurs in a DCF or similar core valuation). Discounting with conventionally measured DLOMs is likely to be redundant because liquidity or marketability is highly correlated with company size, and size is already an important determinant of discount rates. Existing evidence suggests that, before DLOMs are applied, real‐world valuations of small businesses typically include discounts of as much as 50% for lack of size. And given that restricted‐stock studies are routinely used to support DLOMs of 20% to 40%, the valuation discounts resulting from this procedure are likely to be much too large. In contrast to industry practice, the author's study of a large sample of private placements of equity produces evidence consistent with use of a DLOM no greater than 5% or 6%.     

Kritische Betrachtung marktorientierter Kapitalkostenbestimmung bei der Bewertung von Versicherungsunternehmen

Increasingly modern discounted cash flow approaches are used for valuing insurance companies. An essential feature of these approaches is the discounting of prospective cash flows with an interest rate deduced from capital markets. Due to its generality and objectivity such an interest rate is preferred. However this article demonstrates that operationalizing this interest rate is highly subjective, preventing the goal of objectivity from being achieved.     

金融机构票据融资发展问题探析及建议

近几年,我国票据市场的票据签发量和贴现量均大幅增加,整体呈现快速发展趋势。但票据量及价格的大幅、频繁波动,也影响了票据融资功能的正常发挥。本文通过实证分析发现,贴现余额增量与实际信贷余额增量以及货币供应量M1余额增量均呈反向变化趋势,表明贴现量变化对货币供应量的调控产生了一定的负面影响。其主要原因在于,信贷考核指标中包含了票据贴现数量,票据贴现成为贷款数量调节器。为此,文章就如何完善金融机构票据管理,进而促进票据市场健康发展提出了相关建议。     

Are audit fees discounted in initial year audit engagements?

Many studies report that audit fees are discounted in the year of an auditor change and regulators have long been concerned that such fee discounting could impair audit quality. We find significant bias in the way studies have tested for fee discounting. The bias exists because interim procedures are usually performed by both the predecessor and successor auditors but only the successor's fee needs to be disclosed. Accordingly, the disclosed fee during the auditor change year usually relates to a partial year of auditing services. We find that the evidence for fee discounting disappears after correcting for this measurement bias.     

A Generalized Method for Detecting Abnormal Returns and Changes in Systematic Risk

We generalize traditional event-study techniques to allow for event-induced parameter shifts, shifting variances, and firm-specific event periods. Our method, which nests traditional methods, also permits systematic risk to change gradually during the event period and exit the period at higher or lower levels. We use our approach to study 123 banks that acquired other institutions between 1989 and 1995. We find a significant change in the systematic risk of the acquiring firms, significant ARCH effects, and an event period that ends before the date of the announcement. None of these results is detectable using conventional methods.     

Equity,efficiency, and discounting : The reasons for discounting intergenerational effects

Confusion between the ethical norm of intergenerational equity and the practical technique of discounting only obscures the basic issues of efficiency and equity. The author distinguishes between the discounting approach and the equity argument, and explains their essentially complementary roles in long-term investment decisions. He argues that the discounting method is an important tool in the achievement of intergenerational equity since it can determine the amount of compensation to be paid to future generations, a sum which by definition will compensate them for the damage our action has caused.