操作风险损失的广义帕累托分布参数估计及其应用

极值理论表明大于某一阀值的样本服从广义帕累托分布,该结论在金融风险计量和保险精算中有着广泛的应用。然而,由于其参数没有可接受的估计方法,致使其应用受到限制。论文在推导出广义帕累托分布的条件矩的基础上,研究了基于操作风险损失的广义帕累托分布的参数估计问题。并且基于我国商业银行1994~2008年的操作风险损失数据对经济资本配置进行了算例分析。     

尖峰厚尾巨灾损失数据的组合分布模型

具有尖峰厚尾特征的巨灾损失数据,通常的损失分布模型很难对其进行拟合,这给巨灾风险管理带来了极大挑战。近几年,关于组合分布模型的研究为巨灾损失数据的拟合提供了一种新的建模思路。组合分布模型是两个普通损失分布的平滑组合。本文将逆威布尔分布分别与帕累托分布和广义帕累托分布进行组合,构建了三个新的组合分布模型,即固定权重的逆威布尔-帕累托组合分布模型、可变权重的逆威布尔-帕累托组合分布模型以及可变权重的逆威布尔-广义帕累托组合分布模型。与现有的组合分布模型相比,这三个组合分布模型结构更加简洁,为拟合尖峰厚尾的巨灾损失数据提供了新的备选模型。     

极值理论在金融风险度量中的应用——基于沪深300指数的实证研究

如何准确度量金融市场风险在金融风险管理中扮演着重要角色,而极值理论能对极端风险进行较准确的度量。通过对沪深300指数的实证研究表明,广义帕累托分布能够很好地拟合极端日收益率数据,从而用建立在广义帕累托分布基础上的POT模型来度量投资者所面临的市场风险是合适的。结果显示:基于正态分布假设得到的风险值小于POT模型的风险值。     

对基层行费用资源优化配置的探析

一、资源配置的经济效率与帕累托最优理论资源配置效益,是指资源配置结构变动所产生的经济效益,有两层含义:一是在资源投入一定的情况下,如何配置资源使产出最大;二是在产出一定的情况下,如何配置资源,使投入最小。什么样的资源配置最优?西方经济学中“帕累托最优”就是指资源分配的一种理想状态,假如固有的一群人和可分配的资源,从一种分配状态到另一种状态的变化中,在没有使任何人境况变坏的前提下,使得至少一个人变得更好,这就是帕累托改进或帕累托最优化。帕累托最优的状态就是不可能在有更过的帕累托改进的余地;换句话说,帕累托改进是…     

帕累托最优在我国义务教育资源配置中的应用研究

帕累托最优是经济学中的一个重要概念,在其它领域也有应用,本文主要分析了帕累托最优在义务教育资源配置方面的应用研究。首先,解释了帕累托最优、义务教育资源、义务教育资源配置的概念与内涵;其次,分析我国义务教育资源配置的现状;第三,分析帕累托最优在我国义务教育资源配置上的应用;第四,给出了对策和建议。     

金融支持建设节约型社会的思考

追求帕累托最优,从金融的角度讲,一方面是提高金融资源的配置效率,另一方面是金融引导其它资源提高配置效率.本文通过对淄博市近年来的信贷总量、结构变化趋势与经济增长的相关性分析,从实现帕累托最优的角度,对金融支持建设节约型社会问题进行了探讨.     

中国股市收益的尾部分布特征分析

资产收益分布是金融研究和实践的一项极其重要而又十分基础的工作。鉴于难以对资产收益的全局分布进行建模,研究者转而集中关注其尾部行为特征的研究。本文同时利用广义极值分布和广义帕累托分布对我国3个指数收益序列的尾部特征进行研究,研究结果表明,3个指数收益序列均具有厚尾特征,而且右尾部比左尾部更厚,沪深300指数的左右尾部均是最薄的。     

地震指数保险的帕累托最优赔付比例研究——以EQⅡ产品为例

EQⅡ是一种利用地震指数确定共同保险赔付比例的新型地震指数保险产品。本文基于巨灾经济损失分解的观点,推导出了帕累托最优EQⅡ保单设计的必要条件,并在CARA效用假设以及地震损失中个体差异的影响为伽马分布的条件下,得出了EQⅡ的帕累托最优赔付比例与地震指数之间的具体函数关系。最后利用中国大陆历年地震损失数据,分别对以地震震级和震中烈度作为指数的EQⅡ产品进行帕累托最优赔付比例体系的设计及定价。本文的研究结果表明,当前EQⅡ产品的保单设计符合帕累托最优的必要条件,并且风险管理能力稍弱的机构也可以根据自身风险偏好设计并发售满足帕累托最优条件的EQⅡ产品。此外,EQⅡ产品的帕累托最优赔付比例设计与地震区划中各区域的地震灾害特点和潜在的目标客户数量有关,因此本文建议EQⅡ的赔付比例应根据各区域地震灾害的具体情况分别进行设计。     

帕累托哲学

帕累托80/20定律又称“帕累托法则”、“帕累托定律”、“不平衡原则”。意大利经济学家帕累托于1897年在从事经济学研究时，发现19世纪英国总收入和财富在总人口之间分布是不平衡的，大约占总人口数20%的族群，享有80%的社会总收入或财富。尤其是，这种不平衡模式在不同时期、不同国家都普遍存在，而且数学关系上的精确度较高。进一步地，就可以推测，其中10%的人拥有约65%的财富，而50%的财富是由5%的人所拥有。问题的关键不完全在于百分比是多少，而是在于财富在人口之间的分配是不均衡的。后来，人们将这种不平衡关系称为帕累托80/20定…     

极值风险价值和预期损失的估计应用:以影子银行和A股市场为例

在检测金融时间序列极值的风险价值和预期损失时,由于金融时间序列具有尖峰和厚尾的特征,首先利用广义帕累托分布的安全阈值模型Hill图观测.当样本数据不多时,利用Gibbs抽样和蒙特卡洛模拟马尔科夫链来检验参数的拟合效果.最后,对从Hill图观测出的极值情况基于MCMC和MLE方法估计其风险价值和预期损失.本文以中国的影子银行规模、上证指数、上证成交量时间序列为例,检测了三者的极值风险值和预期损失,经过比较发现:上证成交量极值风险更大,影子银行极值风险相对较小.     

土地财政收入、生产性支出和经济增长研究——基于省际面板数据的非线性阈值分析

构建含土地财政收入的内生经济增长模型,从理论上证明土地财政收入对经济增长存在非线性影响,而且会因财政支出结构的变化而对经济增长产生不同的非线性影响。并以2000-2017年省级面板数据对上述假说进行实证检验。结果显示：在东部和西部地区,土地财政收入相对GDP的占比对经济增长确实先有促进作用,后出现抑制作用,呈现出较明显的倒“U”形特征。同时,土地财政收入对经济增长的影响会因财政支出结构的变化而出现阈值效应,过高的生产性支出比重将减弱土地财政收入对经济增长的促进作用。     

Optimal allotment policy in central bank open market operations1

This article derives a central bank's optimal liquidity supply towards a money market with an unrestricted lending facility. We show that when the effect of liquidity on market rates is not too small, and the monetary authority is concerned with both interest rates and liquidity conditions, then the optimal allotment policy may entail a ‘discontinuous’ reaction to initial conditions. In particular, the model predicts a threshold level of liquidity below which the central bank will not bail out the banking system. An estimation of the liquidity effect for the euro area suggests that the discontinuity might have contributed to the Eurosystem's tight response to occurrences of underbidding during the period June 2000 through March 2004.     

Should smart investors buy funds with high past returns?

We fully characterize the equilibria in a gme between a fundmanager of unknown ability who control the riskiness of hisportfolio and investors who only observe realized returns. Wederive two types of equilibria. The first one is such that (i)investors invest in the fund if the realized return falls withinsome interval, i.e., is neither too low nor too high, (ii) agood manager picks a portfolio of minimal riskiness and (iii)a bad manager picks a portfolio with higher risk, "gambling"on a lucky outcome. The second type of equilibrium is more traditional:(i) investors invest in the fund if the observed return is largerthan some threshold, and (ii) good and bad managers choose thesame risk level.     

外商直接投资会导致东道国环境污染吗？ —来自长江经济带的经验证据

环境污染已成为制约经济发展的重要瓶颈，推动生态文明建设，实现绿色发展是 构建高质量发展的必然要求。文章基于2003-2016年长江经济带数据，采用固定效应和门槛模 型对“污染光环”假说进行检验。研究结果表明：外商直接投资能有效抑制废水排放量，有利 于改善环境质量，从而验证了“污染光环”假说；同时，FDI对废水排放的减排效果存在显著 差异性，一方面废水减排效果会受到FDI规模影响，FDI规模过大或过小对抑制废水排放都存 在帕累托改进，另一方面FDI对废水排放的抑制作用依赖于城市化进程、产业结构、技术进步 和环境规制的水平，存在显著的门槛特征。此外，当前经济发展水平与废水排放量呈现显著的 倒“U”型关系，验证了EKC曲线假说。因此，在扩大开放的基础上，要重视FDI质量、优化产 业结构、加快科技成果转化等措施，实现经济与环境的可持续发展。     

Trade costs and multimarket collusion

Contrary to conventional wisdom, this article argues that trade liberalization may facilitate collusion and reduce welfare. With the help of a duopoly model in which firms interact repeatedly in multiple markets, we first show that, if trade costs (i.e., tariffs/transport costs) and discount factors are not too high, efficient cartel agreements necessitate the cross‐hauling of goods, as that entails lower deviation incentives. In this setting, we then demonstrate that reciprocal trade liberalization always raises total output when trade costs are within a range whose lower bound exceeds a threshold level, but may reduce total output (and thus be pro‐collusive) when trade costs are below that threshold level.     

Bailouts,the incentive to manage risk,and financial crises

A firm's termination leads to bankruptcy costs. This may create an incentive for outside stakeholders or the firm's debtholders to bail out the firm as bankruptcy looms. Because of this implicit guarantee, firm shareholders have an incentive to increase volatility in order to exploit the implicit protection. However, if they increase volatility too much they may induce the guarantee-extending parties to “walk away.” I derive the optimal risk management rule in such a framework and show that it allows high volatility choices, while net worth is high. However, risk limits tighten abruptly when the firm's net worth declines below an endogenously determined threshold. Hence, the model reproduces the qualitative features of existing risk management rules, and can account for phenomena such as “flight to quality.”     

技术追赶机制研究——一个基于吸收能力与R&D的理论模型

以Abramovitz的追赶假说为基础,构建一个包含后进地区技术吸收能力和自主R&D的技术追赶理论模型,研究表明,吸收能力的高低直接决定了技术追赶速度的快慢,过弱的吸收能力会使经济陷入进一步技术落后的状态。另一方面,当吸收能力不强时,如果后进地区能加强自身的研发积累,也能维持一定速度的技术追赶。     

金融改革对收入不平等的影响研究——理论解释与实证分析

采集55个新兴市场国家的非平衡面板数据,使用动态门限面板模型实证结果表明,金融改革与收入不平等间存在明显的门限效应,当金融改革水平低于门限值时,金融改革会扩大收入差距;当金融改革水平越过门限值时,金融改革有利于收入差距的缩小.多数新兴市场国家金融改革对降低收入不平等已经发挥正向效应,为缩小新兴市场国家收入差距,必须进一步深化金融改革.     

运营时滞、债务协商和可转债融资企业投资决策研究

在运营时滞的背景下,将债务协商机制引入到利用股权和可转债融资的上市企业,建立动态模型分析企业的投资问题。数值分析表明：在相同的运营时滞下,如果股东谈判能力较弱（强）,相比于破产清算,债务协商会加速（推迟）投资;项目首次投资成本和股东谈判能力会同时影响运营时滞与企业投资水平之间的关系。当首次投资成本低时,随着运营时滞增加,较强（弱）的股东谈判能力会推迟（加速）投资;当首次投资成本较高时,运营时滞增加会推迟投资,但股东谈判能力越强,推迟程度越小;债务协商可以提高实物期权价值,并且实物期权价值和股东谈判能力成正比,和运营时滞成反比。     

IPO market timing. The evidence of the disposition effect among corporate managers

Until now, IPO market timing has been mostly associated with a varying number of IPOs in certain periods of “hot” and “cold” issue markets. We would like to offer a different perspective. We focus on a speed of the IPO process, after the decision to go public was actually made. Our hypothesis is that in “hot market” managers will tend to minimize the time necessary to go public in order to take advantage of high valuations as quickly as possible. On the contrary, if the firm is not ready with the IPO on time and in the meantime the market falls during the going-public process, managers will tend to delay the IPO hoping that the good market conditions will come back soon. We argue that such a behavior might be attributed to the disposition effect among firms' managers.We find a statistically significant negative correlation between the market return and the speed of the IPO process. The absolute correlation coefficient is higher when the market return is calculated 90 days prior to the Approval Date of the prospectus than when it is calculated 90 days after the Approval Date. Hence, a vast part of the market influence on the speed of the offering process has its origin at the time when offering is formally not possible yet. External factors occurring after the Approval Date seem to be less important than the managerial decision influenced by observation of the market situation prior to the Approval Date.We also find that for firms débuting faster than the median of our sample, the average market return in the period between the IPO date and the median is positive. On the other hand, in the group of slower firms, the average market return in the period between the median and the IPO date is negative. There is an analogy between firms – débuting too fast in bullish market and too slow in bearish market, and investors – selling winning stocks too quickly and keeping falling stocks for too long in their portfolios. Both managers and investors seem to be biased by the S-shape utility function, as predicted by the prospect theory of Kahnemann and Tversky (1979).