利用因子分析法评价商业银行效率

一、引言根据我国加入世界贸易组织的承诺,中国将于2006年取消对外资金融机构所有权、经营和设立形式的非审慎性措施,中国的商业银行要与外资金融机构在市场中激烈竞争,因此我国商业银行必须加强自己应对市场竞争的能力,学习发达国家管理的先进方法,提高管理水平。有必要对商业银行的经营状况进行全面合理的评价,以便认清差距和不足,有针对性的提高。实际中有多种方法可供选择,因子分析法是一种较为科学的方法。因子分析可以看成是主成分分析的一种推广。它的基本目的是,用少数几个因子F1、F2、…去描述许多变量之间的关系。被描述的变量X1、X2、…是可以观测的随机变量,即显在变量。而这些因子是不可观测的潜在变量。因子分析的     

进退亚洲区 外资行的野心与无奈

<正>近年来多家外资银行遭遇本土经营亏损,迫使其剥离不赚钱的业务,通过收缩中国网点和业务规模、内部整合或者转让出售等方式,集中核心业务投身核心战场。外资行在中国区的业务正处于新一轮的整合重组之中。10月31日,澳新银行抛售亚洲五个市场的财富管理与零售银行业务,星展银行接手。事实上,关闭网点、出售业务、抛售股权成为不少外资行的选择。在分析人士看来,外资行的进退有自身战略调整、国内市场环境等多重因素的作用。10月31日,星展银行宣布将以高于账面价值约1.1亿新加坡元收购澳新银行在亚洲五     

金融机构的对内开放

金融机构是经营金融产品以获取收益的企业法人，也是提供金融服务的基本主体。金融机构的状况如何，不仅直接关系到中国境内的金融服务状况、金融市场状况和金融效率状况，也不仅关系着金融对外开放的程度、中资金融机构与外资金融机构的竞争格局以及外资金融机构在中国境内的发展前景，而且关系着中资金融机构“走出去”战略的实现、中国金融融入全球金融(包括资本账户开放)的进程。一个耐人寻味的说法是：加入世贸组织以后，在金融业中的国民待遇是指，外资金融机构与中资金融机构享受同等的制度待遇，由此，只要继续贯彻对中资金融机构的…     

浅析商业银行信贷资产转让

信贷资产转让是国内商业银行近年发展起来的一项资产业务创新，是商业银行金融创新的一个亮点。它是指金融机构（如银行、信托投资公司、资产管理公司、财务公司等）之间，根据协议约定转让在其经营范围内、自主、合规发放尚未到期信贷资产的融资业务。其中，金融机构将其持有的信贷资产出售给其他金融机构并一次融入资金被称为信贷资产出让业务；金融机构受让其他金融机构出售的信贷资产并融出资金被称为信贷资产受让业务。     

资产评估的不确定性分析

评估师的工作就是为客户提供有关资产的最有价值的信息.而在目前的评估报告中,评估结果仍以一个单一的评估价值来表示,并且只附加了简单的解释,这种评估对客户的来说使用价值相当有限,由于客户不知道单一的评估价值所处的合理价值范围以及相应的概率,在做出投资决策时选择余地很少,有时甚至会产生误导.资产评估中不可避免会存在一定程度的不确定性,当市场和资产条件未发生变化时,评估师本可以做出正确的估价,但当条件变化时,他无法对评估结果的准确性及可靠性发表意见.本文主要探讨的是"正常的不确定性",亦可以简称为"不确定性".不确定性是评估中普遍存在的一种现象,不确定性的描述和鉴别对客户会有很大的帮助,同时也可以提升评估师工作的可信度.     

是否收购:目标企业核心竞争力与收购企业能力

本文在不完全契约环境下考虑收购方企业与目标企业之间的并购博弈,分析目标企业的核心竞争力对于收购方企业的收购动机和收购价格的影响。结果表明:(1)收购方企业是否对目标企业报高价,取决于收购方企业自身的相对能力,而不是目标企业的核心竞争力,收购方企业自身相对能力越强,越有可能对目标企业报高价。(2)目标企业没有很强的核心竞争力时,更有可能发生收购。(3)尽管知道高价收购目标企业很可能是不值得的,但一些具有高能力的收购方企业仍然愿意高价收购目标企业。     

2007年期货全行业盈利各类机构“入主”期货公司

刚刚过去的2007年，期货市场成交金额突破40万亿元，与2006年相比几乎实现了翻番。177家期货公司分享了全行业增长所带来的果实，业务量在短短的一年之内也近乎翻倍。与此同时，以券商、信托、外资为首的金融机构纷纷斥资收购期货公司股权，多达数十家期货公司控股权转移至券商“手中”。至此，期货公司“券商系”和“传统系”两大阵营逐渐形成。新生血液的注入不仅改变了期货公司的经营理念，也改变了原有的生态环境，期货公司层次体系开始丰富。     

非流通股转让与上市公司控制权

本文分析了非流通股协议转让中收购方的动机以及股权转让的市场反应。通过分析1997年到2003年间发生的307次非流通股协议转让交易,本文发现收购方收购大量非流通股是为了获得上市公司的控制权。当收购方在交易后成为公司第一大股东时,转让价格相对于账面净资产的溢价较高。市场对股权协议转让有正面的反应,并且公司流通股的超额回报仅当收购方在交易后成为第一大股东时才存在。这说明市场认为只有具有控制权的收购方才能提高公司价值。收购方的控制总体上有利于被收购的上市公司及其流通股股东。     

金融综合化经营仍然是大势所趋

国际金融危机再次引发了国内外金融界关于综合经营与分业经营孰优孰劣的争论.反对综合经营的观点认为,在综合经营的情况下,金融市场和商业银行之间的防火墙被打破,投资银行激进的风险文化向风险厌恶的商业银行渗透,加大了金融机构的道德风险;支持金融综合经营的观点认为,在这次金融危机中,以雷曼兄弟为代表的顶级投资银行相继陷入倒闭或被综合化经营的商业银行收购的境地,说明实施综合化经营的一些大型商业银行受到的冲击较小.     

强化我国商业银行新产品开发功能的探讨

市场经济条件下商业银行的竞争在相当程度上表现为产品的竞争。目前我国商业银行的产品状况虽然比前几年有很大改进和提高,但是从总体上看尚不能满足市场需求,与国外同业相比还有相当大的差距,主要表现为产品种类少、功能单一、技术含量低、附加价值小等缺点,究其原因是我国商业银行的新产品开发功能还十分薄弱。因此,研究如何强化我国商业银行新产品开发功能、提高其新产品开发创新能力具有十分重要的意义。转变经营观念,增强新产品开发创新意识。当前我国商业银行要进一步树立以市场为导向、以客户为中心的经营理念。加强对市场状况和市场…     

Crises,Liquidity Shocks,and Fire Sales at Commercial Banks

If liquidity shortages cause financial crises, a lender of last resort can provide funds to banks facing potential fire sales. However, if funding problems primarily occur at banks with existing solvency problems, then government liquidity programs may not spur bank lending. We find that commercial bank funding does not typically dry up in a crisis, not even during the subprime crisis. Rather, weak banks are more likely to borrow less. Furthermore, banks rely more on deposits and newly issued equity than fire sales. When they do sell assets, they cherry pick assets in order to alleviate pressure from capital regulations.     

Asymmetric information and the mode of entry in foreign credit markets

In a newly liberalized credit market, foreign banks with cost advantages are likely to be less informed than domestic banks that hold information on credit risks. These relative advantages may generate incentives for a foreign bank to negotiate acquisition of a domestic bank in order to capture information endowments. However, if it is difficult to assess the value of information held by banks, the foreign bank will face important choices about the optimal mode of entry and what acquisition price to pay. These choices have implications for the survival of domestic banks and how capital is allocated after liberalization.     

金融产品持股与银行系统性风险——兼论《商业银行股权管理暂行办法》的影响

基于金融机构通过金融产品增持上市银行股份现象日益普遍的背景,本文运用2011-2019年上市银行数据,采用系统GMM和合成控制法(SCM),分析金融产品持股¹对银行系统性风险的影响及其异质性,并探讨《商业银行股权管理暂行办法》(以下简称《股权办法》)限制金融产品超比例持有上市银行股份规定的效果。结果表明:(1)当单家金融产品股东的持股比例均低于5%²时,其会利用专业优势更好地监督银行行为,金融产品总持股比例有助于降低银行系统性风险。(2)当第一大金融产品股东的持股比例超过5%时,其会利用话语权为自身牟利,导致银行系统性风险增加,削弱金融产品总持股比例对银行系统性风险的降低作用。(3)由于保险产品持股在金融产品总持股中占主导地位,其对银行系统性风险的影响与金融产品持股的作用一致;保险产品以外的其他金融产品总持股比例会降低银行系统性风险。(4)《股权办法》的实施有助于约束持股比例超过5%的机构投资者的冒险行为,进而降低相应银行的系统性风险。     

Investment Bank Reputation,Information Production,and Financial Intermediation

We model reputation acquisition by investment banks in the equity market. Entrepreneurs sell shares in an asymmetrically informed equity market, either directly, or using an investment bank. Investment banks, who interact repeatedly with the equity market, evaluate entrepreneurs' projects and report to investors, in return for a fee. Setting strict evaluation standards (unobservable to investors) is costly for investment banks, inducing moral hazard. Investment banks' credibility therefore depends on their equity-marketing history. Investment banks' evaluation standards, their reputations, underwriter compensation, the market value of equity sold, and entrepreneurs' choice between underwritten and nonunderwritten equity issues emerge endogenously.     

Financing Shipping Companies and Shipping Operations: A Risk‐Management Perspective

Shipping has always been a volatile and cyclical business. The extreme changes in revenues, operating cash flows, and asset values during the recent financial crises have upset the usual means of financing shipping companies. While bank debt will remain important in the future, the new regulatory environment has been forcing shipping banks to shift these risks from their balance sheets to capital markets through instruments such as loan securitization. As a result, the shipping industry will increasingly look to capital markets for external funds. And shipping banks are likely to change from being commercial bank lending institutions to becoming more like investment banks that arrange a variety of financing solutions, including high yield bonds or public equity. Risk management will be central to shipping companies in this new environment. Shipping companies can manage their own risks by modifying operations, employing freight and vessel price derivatives, or adjusting their capital structures. To arrive at the value‐maximizing combination of these three basic methods, they must decide which risks to bear, which to manage internally, and which to transfer to the capital markets. These decisions require shipping financial managers to assess the effect of each risk on firm value, understand how each contributes to total risk, and determine the most cost‐effective way to limit that risk to an acceptable level.     

Corporate Taxes and Securitization

Most banks pay corporate income taxes, but securitization vehicles do not. Our model shows that, when a bank faces strong loan demand but limited deposit market power, this tax asymmetry creates an incentive to sell loans despite less‐efficient screening and monitoring of sold loans. Moreover, loan‐selling increases as a bank's corporate income tax rate and capital requirement rise. Our empirical tests show that U.S. commercial banks sell more of their mortgages when they operate in states that impose higher corporate income taxes. A policy implication is that tax‐induced loan‐selling will rise if banks’ required equity capital increases.     

中国银行业引进外资银行的若干思考

在经济全球化和金融全球化迅速发展的背景下，银行业开放是一种普遍现象。我国商业银行引入外资基本上达到了改革目的。对于引进外资的必要性、金融控制权、同业竞争、股权转让价格等问题应有一个正确认识。     

How to get banks to take less risk and disclose bad news

There is wide agreement that before the recent financial crisis, financial institutions took excessive risk in their investment strategies. At the same time, regulators complained that banks did not reveal the extent of their difficulties in a timely fashion thus reducing the effectiveness of government intervention to prevent or mitigate the deleterious effects of the financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how regulators can best use certain tools at their disposal to motivate banks to take less risk and to provide adverse information to regulators early. We argue that two tools, namely (i) allowing bank payouts to equity holders even when banks report they are in trouble and (ii) constraining banks’ future investment strategy when they are in trouble can achieve both goals. We show that, in some cases, it is optimal to use both of these tools in combination. That is, in such cases it is optimal to allow equity payouts when banks report they are in trouble, even though such payouts increase the incentive for banks to take excessive risk and even though these payments are financed by taxpayers. We also show that the more socially costly is constraining the bank’s portfolio selection or the more complex are the bank’s assets, the more likely it is that allowing larger payouts and fewer constraints is optimal. Finally we discuss how changes in bank capital requirements interact with inducing disclosure and preventing excessive risk taking.     

银行价格竞争、融资约束与企业研发投资——基于“中介效应”模型的实证研究

近年来我国利率市场化改革积极推进,实体经济发展积极向创新驱动转型,一个亟须研究厘清的关键问题是,银行业竞争如何驱动企业创新活动？本文关注银行价格竞争对企业创新的影响,以2013—2018年沪深两市的上市企业为样本,采用“中介效应”因果分析模型,实证检验了银行价格竞争对企业研发投资的影响,并识别出以融资约束为中介渠道的作用机制。研究发现,银行价格竞争不仅会提高银行的风险容忍度,直接增加R&D投资的信贷供给意愿,而且还会通过降低贷款价格和增加贷款可得性来缓解企业整体的融资约束,间接促进企业创新活动。这一机制在解除贷款利率管制之后以及在民营企业层面体现得更加明显。本文的研究结果对于深化金融市场化改革、改善金融服务实体经济效果以及实施经济创新驱动发展战略,具有明确的政策启示。     

银行权益资本使用及其对规模经济测度的影响

将所有者权益的作用嵌入银行技术模型,测算中国十六家上市商业银行满足成本最小化时的所有者权益影子价格,并以成本最小化为标准评价权益资本使用情况。研究发现,五家国有大型商业银行持有高于最小化成本水平的所有者权益;其余大部分股份制商业银行的权益资本低于成本最小化要求。进一步测算规模经济,发现所有者权益进入成本方程后计算出的规模经济效应比仅以所有者权益为条件调节项和使用标准成本方程估计出的规模经济结果都要高,说明规模经济的轨迹将依赖于银行对负债与所有者权益相对信任度,即提高存款和所有者权益的相对成本及所有者权益资本以多大程度进入到成本函数设定中。