Do Chinese firms speculate during high economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from wealth management products

It has been well-documented that policy-related uncertainty has significant economic consequences. Studies show that US firms tend to delay investments and be conservative during periods of high economic policy uncertainty (EPU), but findings regarding Chinese firms suggest that they seem to act speculatively. This study examines the impact of policy uncertainty on firms' bank wealth management product (WMP) purchasing and helps better understand firm behaviour during high EPU. Using Chinese listed firms' bank WMPs purchasing data, we find that high EPU is associated with a higher probability of bank WMPs being purchased. Moreover, a 100% increase in EPU is associated with an 11.14% increase in average bank WMP holdings in the sample. We provide evidence that Chinese firms are not speculative, but prudent, and use bank WMP holdings to hedge the risk of policy uncertainty. Additionally, we show that financial constraints are the channels through which EPU affects bank WMP holdings.     

Economic policy uncertainty and corporate inventory holdings: evidence from China

We investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on corporate inventory holdings in China over the period 2007–2017. We find that EPU leads firms to significantly reduce inventory holdings and this effect is particularly pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises. The adjustment of inventory holdings enhances firms’ operating and market performance consequently. In addition, firms with greater financial constraints or stronger external governance are more affected by EPU. Further exploration shows that EPU induces high precautionary cash holdings, which crowds out inventories. Our results illustrate that firms reallocate between inventories and cash to cope with uncertainty associated with economic policy changes.     

Economic policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China

Using a quarterly sample of Chinese non-financial listed firms from 2007 to 2020, we find a U-shaped relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and corporate financialization. When economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is in an appropriate range, the increase of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is unlikely to make firms increase financial assets investment. In contrast, the operational risk induced by too high economic policy uncertainty (EPU) will make firms more willing to invest in financial assets. Additionally, we show that the effect is more noticeable when firms are non-state-owned, have lower financing constraints, or are located in lower marketization regions. The results are robust after various specifications of variables, possible endogeneity issues, and sub-samples are considered.     

Zero-leverage policy and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Korea

This study examines the difference in stock price crash risk between zero-leverage and non-zero-leverage firms. We find that zero-leverage firms have a significantly higher future stock price crash risk than non-zero-leverage firms. Next, we find that the positive relation between zero-leverage policy and future stock price crash risk is more pronounced when firms have higher controlling shareholders' ownership and foreign ownership. We also find that the positive relation is more pronounced for firms with low cash holdings than for those with high cash holdings. Further, we find that the positive relation is stronger for dividend-paying firms than non-dividend-paying firms. Our results are robust to alternative estimation specifications and endogeneity concerns. Overall, our findings shed light on the extent to which extreme corporate financial policy has an impact on future stock price crash risk. Our empirical evidence also provides meaningful implications for how stakeholders (especially investors) predict stock price crash risk in the context of extremely conservative capital structure.     

Bank competition and corporate financial asset holdings

This paper investigates how bank competition measured by the geographical distribution of bank branches impacts the financial asset holdings of nonfinancial firms. By using a sample of listed nonfinancial firms in China between 2007 and 2019, we find that intensified bank competition caused by the increase in the number of bank branches around firms significantly increases their noncash financial asset holdings, especially for the firms with a higher level of credit constraints or a greater degree of information asymmetry. The result implies that achieving higher yields is the underlying motive for firms to hold noncash financial assets. Moreover, the competition among non-state-owned banks shows a greater impact on corporate financial asset holdings, and the impact of bank competition on noncash financial asset holdings is more pronounced for non-state-owned firms. Our findings provide insight into the determinants of noncash financial asset holdings of firms in a transitional economy.     

Does takeover activity affect stock price crash risk? Evidence from international M&A laws

We exploit the staggered initiation of merger and acquisition (M&A) laws across countries as a plausibly exogenous shock to the threat of takeover to examine whether the market for corporate control has a real effect on firm-level stock price crash risk. Using a difference-in-differences regression on a large sample of firms from 32 countries, we find that stock price crash risk significantly decreases following the passage of M&A laws. This effect is stronger for firms domiciled in countries with poorer investor protection and information environments and for firms with weaker firm-level governance. Further, financial reporting opacity and overinvestment significantly decrease in the post-M&A law periods. Our study suggests that an active takeover market has a disciplining effect on managerial bad news hoarding and leads to lower future crash risk.     

Economic policy uncertainty,institutional environments,and corporate cash holdings

We investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on corporate cash holdings using a large sample of international firms. EPU intensifies concerns of investors on managerial self-dealing and political extraction. Consequently, the potential cost of cash holdings (i.e., expropriation) outweighs its benefit (i.e., precautionary motives), and the optimal amount of cash holdings decreases. We find supportive evidence that firms hold less cash when EPU is high. We further show that the market discounts excess cash holdings under high policy uncertainty, but this negative effect is mitigated by stronger investor protection, better freedom of press, and better government quality.     

The spillover effect of shareholder activism: Evidence on firm reporting

This study examines the spillover effect of shareholder activism against target firms on financial reporting by non-target firms in portfolios held by the same activist shareholders. We find that firms that are not the target of institutional shareholders’ activism campaigns report more positive abnormal accruals. Cross-sectional tests indicate that the effect is more pronounced i) for firms that have more opportunities to engage in upward earnings management, or for firms with less effective alternative monitoring forces, and ii) when investors are more sensitive to good news. We also find that the effect is stronger when activist shareholders are more experienced, are waging more confrontational campaigns against target firms, and have larger holdings in non-target firms. We further find that non-target firms tend to report lower magnitude of asset write-downs, are more likely to restate financial statements and meet or beat earnings benchmarks, and exhibit a more optimistic tone in their 10-K/10-Q filings. Overall, our findings suggest that firms tend to window-dress their mandatory reporting to preempt possible shareholder activism against them.     

金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。     

金融同业活动与实体企业经营风险——来自地区层面同业存单业务的证据

本文研究了地区层面金融同业活动对实体企业经营风险的影响。基于各省份金融机构开启同业存单业务的研究表明,地区层面金融同业活动显著提升了当地上市企业股价大幅下跌的风险。进一步研究表明,随着同业存单业务的发展,当地上市企业债务融资成本和风险水平有所上升,而业绩表现和市场价值有所下降。上述发现表明,企业融资链条变长后,信贷市场道德风险上升,部分企业因风险偏好增强导致经营风险上升,更容易突然出现负面事件而导致股价大幅下跌。本文的发现揭示了金融同业活动存在监管规避的可能性及其影响实体企业的潜在路径,凸显了完善金融监管以更好服务实体经济发展的重要现实意义。     

Bank discrimination, holding bank ownership, and economic consequences: Evidence from China

This paper finds that compared with Chinese state-owned firms, non-state-owned firms have a greater propensity to hold significant ownership in commercial banks. These results are consistent with the notion that because non-state-owned firms are more likely to suffer bank discrimination for political reasons, they tend to address their financing disadvantages by building economic bonds with banks. We also find that among non-state-owned firms, those that hold significant bank ownership have lower interest expenses, and are less likely to increase cash holdings but more likely to obtain short-term loans when the government monetary policy is tight. These results suggest that the firms building economic bonds with banks can enjoy benefits such as lower financial expenses and better lending terms during difficult times. Finally, we find that non-state-owned firms with significant bank ownership have better operating performance. Overall, we find that firms can reduce discrimination through holding bank ownership.     

Foreign shareholders,relative foreign policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings

Studies have shown that foreign investors hedge risks stemming from economic and political uncertainty in the home country through outward investment. This paper studies how foreign investors' home country risk affects their overseas investment and the host country firms' corporate cash holdings. We find that relative foreign EPU, defined as the difference between foreign investors' home country EPU and the host country of investment EPU, negatively impacts the host country firms' cash holdings through their influences on managerial decision-making. This negative relationship arises from firms' precautionary and transaction motives as foreign investors perceive lower corporate risk and better investment opportunities in the host country firms. Good corporate governance is also instrumental in yielding this negative relationship. The reduction in cash holdings due to high relative foreign EPU is more pronounced if foreign investors' home country legal environment is weaker, the two countries are further apart, and there is little trade partnership between them.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment decisions: Dilemma or opportunity?

In an environment of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), how to improve efficiency and optimize the scale of firm investment is an important topic worthy of attention. This paper examines the impact of EPU on firms' investment decisions, using Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2019 as a research sample. The study finds that macro EPU inhibits the increase of firms' investment scale and efficiency while exacerbating the risk of overinvestment or underinvestment. Local EPU enhances a firm's investment scale but simultaneously exacerbates the risk of over- or underinvestment, which in turn inhibits investment efficiency. The mechanism test shows that, first, macro EPU promotes firms' R&D investment but inhibits their green investment. In contrast, local EPU inhibits R&D investment and promotes green investment. Second, macro EPU has a significant negative effect on firms' business performance, while local EPU has a smaller effect. Therefore, in an uncertain environment, the government should actively stabilize the macroeconomic environment, and firms should actively optimize investment structures and improve their risk prevention mechanisms.     

Do bankers on the board reduce crash risk?

Commercial banker‐directors (CBDs) bring both financial expertise in risk management and conflicts of interest between shareholders and debtholders. The burgeoning literature on stock price crash risk generates important questions of whether CBDs reduce crash risk. Using BoardEx data from 1999 to 2009, we find supporting evidence that the firms with CBDs experience lower stock price crash risk. Moreover, the reduction of crash risk is more pronounced for high‐risk firms under the monitoring of affiliated banker‐directors. The results of this study are robust to the Heckman selection model, propensity score matching, and alternative measures of crash risk.     

Share pledging,payout policy,and the value of cash holdings

Share pledging for insiders’ personal bank loans is associated with the agency problems of insider risk aversion and stock price crash risk. We examine the relation between insider share pledging and the value of cash holdings using the pledging data of listed firms in Taiwan. We find that the value of cash holdings is lower for pledging firms, especially for those that are relatively more risk averse. Pledging firms that repurchase shares have a higher marginal value of cash than those with other payout methods, likely due to the role of repurchases in reducing the stock price crash risk. Our results show how insiders’ personal financing incentives arising from share pledging would affect the value of cash holdings from the perspective of agency problems and payout policy.     

Social trust and corporate financial asset holdings: Evidence from China

This study examines the impact of social trust on firms’ holdings of non-currency financial assets using a large sample of firms in China’s real sector. We find that firms in regions of the high social trust hold fewer financial assets, consistent with the notion that credibility in high-trust regions reduces information asymmetry and transaction cost among market participants. This leads to better access to formal and informal financing and higher profitability for the real economy, eventually depressing firms’ financial asset allocations. We also find that the negative effect of social trust on financial asset holdings is more prominent for private firms and firms with weak internal monitoring from large shareholders, suggesting that corporations rely more on trust in these cases; it is less pronounced when firms are in regions with good legal systems, proving social trust to be a substitute for formal institutions.     

Overinvestment and the Operating Performance of SEO Firms

Prior studies have documented that firms' operating performance deteriorates following seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). This paper proposes and empirically tests the hypothesis that this poor performance is the result of managers' overinvestment. I find that, subsequent to the offering, SEO firms tend to invest more heavily than nonissuing control firms that are in the same industry and have enough financial slack and similar investment opportunities. More importantly, I find a negative correlation between postissue investment and operating performance, controlling for investment opportunities and preissue performance. Overinvestment results in a reduction in asset productivity and is more severe for firms with relatively fewer investment opportunities.     

Cash holdings and earnings quality: evidence from the Main and Alternative UK markets

In this paper we investigate the importance of earnings quality as a determinant of cash holdings by companies, exploring among other factors the nature of earnings (positive or negative) and the level of financial disclosure, proxied by the market where firms are listed (Main or AIM-Alternative Investment Markets in the United Kingdom). Based on a sample covering the period of 1998–2015, we provide evidence that as earnings quality decreases, firms tend to hold more cash except when firms are facing losses in both Main and AIM markets. In addition, we document that information conveyed by earnings quality is a more important determinant of cash reserve levels for Main Market than for AIM firms (where the level of financial disclosure and oversight is lower). Overall, our evidence suggests that cash balances are positively influenced by the presence of greater information asymmetries arising from poor earnings quality but also from the existence of lower levels of regulatory oversight and the occurrence of losses, both of which reduce the importance of earnings quality as a determinant of cash levels. Our results also imply that companies with higher levels of earnings opaqueness seem to benefit from having higher cash holdings so as to avoid dependence from costly external funding.     

Large blockholders and stock price crash risk: An international study

This study examines the relationship between large blockholders and stock price crash risk across 44 countries. Based on the results, firms held by large blockholders have a lower firm-specific crash risk than widely held firms. In this case, the higher the proportion of voting rights, the lower the risk. In addition, the negative association is more pronounced in firms undertaking overinvestment activities. The findings also suggest that large shareholders serve as monitors in firms, reducing agency costs and leading to lower stock price crash risk. Meanwhile, this mitigating effect is stronger in firms held by a family, another widely held corporation, and the state. Conversely, the results show no such effect in firms held by a large institutional investor. Finally, the relationship is more pronounced in developed countries and in English common law and German civil law countries, thus highlighting the role of large blockholders as a complementary governance mechanism, rather than a substitutive one.     

Debt,Diversification, and Valuation

The separate associations between financial leverage and valuation and between diversification and valuation have been widely researched. The joint function of leverage, diversification, and valuation, however, has received much less attention. Previous research shows that compared to specialized firms, diversified firms tend to have higher free cash flows and fewer high net present value investment opportunities. Consequently, the agency costs associated with potential overinvestment are greater for diversified firms. The literature also proposes that financial leverage should reduce agency costs. Consequently, we expect that the values of diversified firms increase with leverage. Our tests provide strong support for the hypothesis that the values of diversified firms increase with leverage. This tendency is not observed for specialized firms.JEL Classification: