“理性预期失灵”:立论、逻辑梳理及其“供给管理”矫正路径

理性预期理论素有"经济学上第六次革命"之称。本文在对理性预期理论进行简要回顾的基础上,提出了"理性预期失灵"这一命题。所谓理性预期失灵,是指市场主体在对未来事件进行预测时,由于不完全信息等原因,不可能形成完全准确的预期并据此调整自己的行动;相反,由于存在各类非理性因素,市场主体基于个体的"理性"行动有时会造就疯狂和失控,对经济系统产生破坏性影响。本文阐述了理性预期失灵的概念与形成机制,并结合中国经济实践对此进行了初步证实,在此基础上提出应结合政府可发挥作用的理性的供给管理来矫正理性预期失灵,实现经济体系的动态平衡与稳定。     

建国以来我国会计学术研究的阶段性特征

会计理论是人们对会计实践的经验总结，是在理性高度上对会计实践规律的认识。它一旦形成，便反过来指导和影响会计实践。从中华人民共和国成立至今，我们已走过了半个世纪的历程。回顾我国会计理论在这一历史时期中的发展，我们认为，同样离不开这一历史时期的会计实践活...     

从前景理论看纳税遵从决策与征管策略选择

本文认为,以理性和自利为假设前提的预期效用理论虽然可以解释一般的纳税遵从决策,却无法解释那些并不完全理性、自利的遵从行为,20世纪80年代以来前景理论的引入弥补了这方面的不足。前景理论的反射性效应、确定性效应和分离性效应原理解释了纳税人的实际决策与理性决策相偏离的现象,为税收征管策略的选择提供了重要的理论基础和政策启示。     

公众预期与我国扩张性政策绩效

以理性预期理论为背景，分析我国扩张性政策实施中预期的作用，在博弈论和信息经济上探讨和何引导公众预期。     

标准金融与行为金融的融合及创建新金融理论的构想

2002年诺贝尔经济学奖授予卡恩曼教授，这仅仅是表明了主流金融理论愿意接纳行为金融理论的一种姿态，但是，标准金融与行为金融基于在出发点理性与非理性的鸿沟以及由此造成的整个体系的对立并没有消除，金融学界在迫切地期待着两大理论的融合并在融合的基础上创立新的金融理论。因此，两大理论的融合已经成为金融理论最前沿的课题。本文是作者以博弈中理性异化的角度为切入点，在将标准金融和行为金融理性和非理性概念重新界定的基础上，进行标准金融与行为金融两大理论融合和创建新金融理论的一个尝试。[编者按]     

理性预期下经济政策的有效性分析

理性预期革命在当代经济学界产生了深远的影响,以理性预期为基础的新古典宏观经济学和新凯恩斯主义已成为当代宏观经济学的主流。本文从理性预期的视角探讨公众的理性预期在经济活动中的作用及对经济政策的影响,并结合国际金融危机背景下我国经济政策调控的实践,分析理性预期条件下宏观经济政策的有效性,从而使我们更好地引导微观经济主体的行为,实现宏观经济调控的目标。     

行为财务学述评及其发展趋向

传统财务理论支持效率市场假设,假设人们的行为符合主观预期效用理论扣理性.20世纪80年代后期,行为财务学以期望理论为基础,加上其他心理学与行为学对于投资者行为模式的发现,来取代现代财务模型中的理性行为假设,进一步解释了传统财务理论所无法解释的实证发现,从而对市场效率性进行了与过去截然不同的诠释,丰富了财务理论的内涵.     

从商业性贷款理论的实践看农行信贷管理改革

在西方商业银行几百年的发展历程中，历来奉行资产管理理论，这是因为银行的利润主要来自于资产业务，银行能够主动加以管理的也是资产业务；而负债则主要取决于客户的存款意愿，银行对此是被动的。于是，银行经营管理的重点就放在资产方面，并致力于在资产上协调盈利性、流动性和完全性。资产管理经营环境的变化经历了几个发展阶段，相继出现了商业性贷款理论、资产转移理论、预期收入理论等。商业性贷款理论，也称为真实票据理论。该理论从银行资金大量来源于活期的存款这一客观现实出发，着眼于保持资产流动性需要，认为银行只应发放短期的与商品周转相联系或与生产物资储备相适应的自偿性贷款，由于放款与商品周转相联系，故期限短，同时，放款以商业行为为基础，并有真料商业票据为凭证，一旦不能偿还贷款，银行可以处理所抵押的商, 回贷款，这既符合流动性的需要，又适当考虑一以盈利性，随着资本主义经济的发展，加之理论本身的缺陷，相继出现了资产转移理论和预期收入理论，资产转移理论的依据是：银行持有短期国库券和其他证券的增加，资产流动性的高低在于其变现能力，预期收入理论的依据是：商业银行的放款标准不能仅仅停留在期限方面，而要更多地放在贷款和投资项目的预期收入方面。     

股指期货理论与模拟实践

模拟实践是培养和提高学生综合素质的一个重要方面，尤其是金融类院校，根据专业人才培养的要求与自身教学的特点，有针对性地加强模拟实践教学，将理论教学和实践教学有机结合，也是目前进行教学改革的重要内容。本就我校10年来开展模拟股指期货交易活动进行了理性的思考。     

应该重视调控中的预期干扰

1．政策是如何失效的？2003下半年以来旨在调控房价的政策效果为何不明显，除了政策设计的本身缺陷外，还有“思想的力量”的原因。这就是经济学上所说的预期，准确地说是理性预期的影响。该理论的核心是假定人们在看到经济即将变化时，就要做出合理的反应，从而使政府的政策失效。这种现象可以归入“政府失灵”的一种表现形式，其原因来自各个主体出于自身利益，对政策的反应、决策和行动——即理性预期，从而抵消了政策效应。     

A volatility model based on adaptive expectations: An improvement on the rational expectations model

Investment expectations affect stock price volatility, making asset pricing more difficult. Correctly capturing investment expectations can help alleviate this problem. In this paper, we analyze the rational expectations properties of existing volatility models. Second, we explore a volatility model based on adaptive expectations by using mathematical methods and the applicable conditions and continuity feature of the adaptive expectations volatility model. Third, under the assumption of adaptive expectations, we construct adaptive expectations GARCH (ADGARCH) and LSTM-ADGARCH models. Using daily trading data from the Shanghai stock index and SPX500 for the period 2015–2021, we find that the volatility model based on adaptive expectations has more explanatory power than one based on rational expectations.     

Rational expectations and corporate dividend policy

The problem of expectations formation has been either ignored or treated with very restrictive assumptions in traditional dividend adjustment models. Since these models are typically used to explain the dividend decisions of individual firms, a more satisfactory treatment of the process of expectations formation is needed. In order to analyze the dynamic dividend adjustment process, this article proposes a model, more general than previous ones, that is consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. A nonlinear regression method is used to estimate the parameters of the model and to test the validity of the rational expectations hypothesis in dividend decisions making. The partial adjustment model with rational expectations explains dividend adjustments reasonably well. The overall results suggest that firms make use of available earnings information to form optimal future earnings forecasts; specifically, a firm's dividend adjustment process is completed in about two and a half quarters. This article also finds that the fourth-order serial correlation problem disappears after a generalized Tobit model is used for the parameter estimation.     

Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning

The impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations is considered. Agents are assumed to combine limited structural knowledge with a standard adaptive learning rule. These issues are analyzed using two well-known set-ups, an endowment economy and the Ramsey model. In our scenario there are important deviations from both rational expectations and purely adaptive learning. The approach could be applied to other frameworks.     

A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies

Rational expectations are often used as an argument against policy activism, as they may undermine or neutralize the policymaker’s actions. Although this sometimes happens, rational expectations do not always imply policy invariance or ineffectiveness. In fact, in certain circumstances rational expectations can enhance our power to control an economy over time. In those cases, policy announcements can be used to extend the impact of conventional policy instruments. We present a general forward-looking policy framework and use it to provide a formal rationale for testing when policymakers can and cannot expect to be able to manage expectations. To describe the relevance of our results applications are shown for policy design in small-open economies. Those are the cases where domestic policies are at their weakest and our ability to influence expectations most constrained.     

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND THE DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT OF SECURITY ANALYSTS' FORECASTS TO NEW INFORMATION

We report the results of unbiasedness tests of security analysts' earnings forecasts. By examining how analysts incorporate new information into their updated earnings forecasts we can analyze directly the effect of new information on analysts' forecast revisions and evaluate whether these revised forecasts converge to rational expectations forecasts. The forecasts made by security analysts participating in the Institutional Brokers Estimate System (IBES) database are analyzed. Using standard statistical tests, we reject the simple form of the rational expectations hypothesis. However, by extending the standard tests used in previous studies, we obtain results that suggest that analysts' earnings forecasts conform to a dynamic form of rationality. The tendency of revised forecasts to converge stochastically toward the rational expectations forecast cautions against the rejection of more complicated forms of rationality.     

Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models

This paper illustrates how to use instrumental variables procedures to estimate the parameters of a linear rational expectations model. These procedures are appropriate when disturbances are serially correlated and the instrumental variables are not exogenous. We compare our procedures to some alternative estimators that estimate free parameters from restrictions implied by the Euler equations. The procedures are applicable to a variety of linear rational expectations models, several examples of which we cite.     

关于通胀预期形成模式及其管理对策的研究

该文在对通胀预期三种形成方式进行比较分析的基础上，认为不完全理性预期是较为符合实际的预期形成方式；而通货膨胀持久性、经济主体获得信息并进行有效分析的能力、中央银行信誉是影响不完全理性预期的主要因素。中央银行应在货币政策目标上赋予币值稳定更高的权重，并通过进一步加强与公众的沟通，尽量向公众提供能使其形成合理预期所需的信息量等方式来管理通货膨胀预期。     

Time-varying term premium in T-bill futures rate and the expectations hypothesis

This paper examines time-varying term premium in the T-bill futures rate to determine its significance for the expectations hypothesis (EH). Similar to previous studies on the T-bill forward rates, our data reject the joint hypothesis of the EH and the rational expectations hypothesis (RE). Under the assumption of zero rational expectational error, we find a substantial variation of term premium in the futures rate over time. Furthermore, the lower bound of the expected term premium variance is significantly positive when the rational expectational error is allowed to be nonzero. These findings are inconsistent with the EH. In addition, a relatively high ratio of the lower bound of the expected term premium variance to the prediction error variance implies that the poor predictive power of the futures rate should not be attributed mainly to the market's rational expectational errors.     

NEW EVIDENCE CONCERNING THE EXPECTATIONS THEORY FOR THE SHORT END OF THE MATURITY SPECTRUM

This paper re-examines the evidence rejecting the expectations theory of the term structure. Weekly, monthly, and quarterly data on three- and six-month interest rates are employed for five subperiods—1910–1914, 1919–1933, 1934–1959, 1959–1978, and 1979–1989. Econometric techniques are used to correct standard errors for overlapping data and for heteroscedasticity. Findings indicate that the weekly and monthly data are consistent with a weak form of the expectations hypothesis in which the yield curve has substantial predictive power for short rates for each subperiod except 1934–1959 and 1979–1989. Results for the period before the founding of the Federal Reserve indicate that a strong version of the expectations hypothesis cannot be rejected in which the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and expectations theory is hypothesized. The use of cointegration tests and an error-correction model framework to determine whether short and long rates have a common stochastic trend indicates that long and short rates are cointegrated.     

Is the foreign exchange market ‘risky’? Some new survey-based results

In this paper we examine the evidence in favour of time-varying risk premia for four foreign exchange markets. The main novelty in our work is that we use survey-based expectations data to generate risk premia, rather than exploiting the rational expectations assumption. In contrast to the perceived wisdom on the existence of a foreign exchange risk premium, we present positive evidence for the view that risk is an important variable in foreign exchange markets.