中美商业银行股利分红比较研究

随着资本市场的不断发展,我国证券监管部门和投资者越来越重视上市公司的股利分红问题,尤其是在我国经济中扮演着＂心脏＂角色的银行业的分红问题。然而在我国商业银行中不科学的股利分配现象还普遍存在,如股利支付率低、分红频率不高等。因次,分析我国商业银行的股利分配政策,无论对于银行业本身还是资本市场的发展都具有重要意义。本文通过对比分析中美两国上市商业银行股利分配的差异,探究其原因,并在借鉴美国成熟资本市场的经验下,提出了通过税收政策引导资本市场、推进利率市场化、改变银行盈利模式、建立多元化股权结构等措施完善我国商业银行分红情况的政策建议。     

The Dutch East-India Company and accounting for social capital at the dawn of modern capitalism 1602–1623

Capitalism’s profound effect on society has encouraged economic and accounting historians to hypothesise about the importance of double entry bookkeeping to its development. According to Sombart the continual reinvestment of the profits earned depended on the existence of a capitalist form of double-entry bookkeeping that would allow investors and managers to measure the return on investments as a means of making rational business decisions. More recently, with particular reference to the English East-India Company Bryer has argued that the adoption of the capitalist form of double-entry bookkeeping was essential to resolving the social conflict between investing capitalist classes that arose with the rise of industrial capitalism in England in the late 17th and 18th centuries by providing the means to calculate the rate of return on socialised capital. This paper widens the historical context of these debates to The Netherlands in the early 17th century by examining accounting practices of the Dutch East-India Company, the epitome of modern capitalism in motives, organization and funding. It establishes that, although the 17th century Dutch were pre-eminent in Europe in their knowledge of the capitalist form of double-entry bookkeeping, at no time during the period covered by the first charter (1602–1623) of the Dutch East-India Company, or thereafter, did the domestic operations of the Company use this form of bookkeeping across all chambers. This meant that the investors did not have the necessary information that would have allowed them to calculate the return on their investments. Indeed, the Company’s investors neither expected nor demanded information to calculate the return on their investments and, hence, double-entry bookkeeping was not a necessary condition for Dutch capitalism in the manner suggested by Sombart, Weber and Bryer. Instead, the form which capitalism developed in The Netherlands recognised the social and economic impact of its unique geography which produced a society characterised by a monetary economy, a long tradition of joint ownership, and a free market for assets and capital rights.     

Financial Institutions and Non‐Governmental Organizations: An Advocacy Partnership for Sustainable Capital Markets?

In this article, the Chief Responsibility Officer for Aviva Investors examines the potential for financial institutions (FIs) to work in partnership with non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) in advocating changes to public policy that promote sustainable capital markets. Many NGOs have argued that the current form of global economic growth is unsustainable—and they routinely engage in public policy advocacy. However, such advocacy has generally proved ineffective, in large part because most NGOs have a very limited understanding of how capital markets function. Investors, for their part, are increasingly recognizing that key aspects of the global economy are on an unsustainable footing. And some are concerned about the negative implications for the long‐term value of their assets. But with a few notable exceptions, they have not made systematic efforts to work with governments to correct the market failures. NGO‐FI advocacy partnerships could identify specific cases of systemic or sectoral market failures, and recommend long‐term changes to the sectoral operating environment that would affect the cash flows and values of companies operating within that sector in ways designed to “internalize” the effects of negative social and environmental externalities. To foster the development of such partnerships, there is a need for academia to develop learning forums that stimulate the exchange of ideas between the executives within NGOs and FIs in an environment of mutual trust and respect.     

晚清中央银行法律制度发展论——以政府主导下的制度生成过程为视角

在世界近现代经济发展中,与自由商品经济同步发展而来的近现代金融制度,对资本主义经济的快速扩张起到了原生动力的作用,而中央银行控制全国信用市场调节经济发展速率的功能,自1920年布鲁塞尔国际金融会议以来在世界各国更是备受关注。中央银行制度既然成为了经济发展中宏观控制体系中的核心模块,在考察近现代中国金融制度发展史时,晚清中央银行法律制度的发展变迁也就不能被忽视。     

Public Investment Criteria in Overlapping Generations Models of Open Economies

This paper derives criteria for worthwhile public investment in an overlapping generations model of an “almost small” open economy- an economy with access to external funding at a given interest rate, but with some influence over its temporal terms of trade. If the economy is dynamically efficient (i.e. the interest rate exceeds the growth rate), committed to free trade, public investment is debt financed and lump sum taxes are feasible, two results follow. First, the “social opportunity cost of public funds” will exceed the government's borrowing rate because of the adverse effect of government borrowing on the terms of trade. Second, the marginal rate of return on worthwhile public investment will be greater than the social opportunity cost of public funds if public and private investment are complements (substitutes) and the tax on capital is below (above) the rate that minimizes the steady state burden of servicing the debt. JEL Code: F21, H43     

中国货币政策通过资本市场传导到实物经济有效性的实证分析

本文运用时间序列分析的方法,研究在中国人民银行间接调控货币政策的新时期,在中国资本市场规范成长的新阶段,中国货币政策通过中国资本市场传导到中国实物经济的有效性.实证分析表明:中国货币政策能够通过中国资本市场传导到中国实物经济.     

Public capital, public pension, and growth

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations, whose engine of economic growth is productive public capital. We investigate a public policy under which the government allocates tax revenue between investment in public capital accumulation and public pension provision. We show that increasing the share of spending on public pensions always reduces economic growth. However, we show numerically that public pension provision improves social welfare and there exists an optimal share of spending on public pension provision unless the value of the time discount factor of the government is sufficiently high. Moreover, we show that in an economy facing an aging population, an increase in social security provision for the old rather than an increase in public investment can be preferable from the viewpoint of social welfare.     

On the deflationary effect of government's indexed bonds

We consider government intervention in the capital market by selling indexed bonds and buying non-indexed bonds of equal value. If the profits or losses of this operation are transmitted to the public which takes this into consideration then the government's intervention may have no effect on the economy. Insofar as the assumptions of the model permit real effects of the foregoing policy the impact on the economy tends to be deflationary. In analyzing this tendency a distinction is made between the case where the government intervenes in an existing market and the case where it creates a new market for indexed bonds.     

民间资本参与社会养老服务提供的制度政策分析

我国人口老龄化发展速度加快,社会养老服务供需不平衡的矛盾凸显。机构养老的“补充”地位已经远远不能满足养老服务的实际需求。民间资本在市场需求和政府政策激励下,正越来越多地投入到社会养老服务提供中。但民间资本在参与养老服务提供的过程中面临一系列制度和政策方面的问题,影响了其参与养老服务提供的积极性。本文在对内蒙古部分民办养老机构实地调查的基础上,对相关问题进行了分析,并提出了一些对策和建议。     

Banking competition and welfare

We develop a simple general equilibrium model in which investment in a risky technology is subject to moral hazard and banks can extract market power rents. We show that more bank competition results in lower economy-wide risk, higher social welfare, lower bank capital ratios, more efficient production plans and Pareto-ranked real allocations. Perfect competition supports a second best allocation and optimal levels of bank risk and capitalization. These results are at variance with those obtained by a large literature that has studied a similar environment in partial equilibrium, they are empirically relevant, and carry significant implications for policy guidance.     

美国货币政策溢出效应、中国资产价格波动与资本账户管理

本文以2016年美国加息事件为背景,研究美国货币政策对中国资本流动、资产价格和宏观经济的影响。基于小国开放动态随机一般均衡模型,本文梳理了美国货币政策溢出效应的具体传导渠道,发现国外利率升高后,资本流动具有外部性,导致国内资产价格下跌,其通过金融加速器进一步使国内投资下降、资产价格进一步下跌,从而使得国内资产预期回报进一步下降,加剧资本外流。基于政策和福利分析,本文发现资本账户管理可以有效缓解国外利率冲击对经济波动的影响,同时会提高货币政策的独立性,但也会影响国民财富的最优配置。因此,最优的资本账户管理应同时兼顾宏观审慎和效率两个方面。     

Whither Capitalism?*

The global financial crisis and policy responses to it have led many to question their fundamental belief in market‐based capitalism. In the U.S., the epicenter of the crisis and poster child of capitalism, signs of creeping nationalization of the financial system have raised fears that the basic model is being turned inside out. In this essay, the author argues that, with more than 90% of the U.S. private sector still operating “largely as a free‐enterprise system,” concerns about nationalization and government involvement in the marketplace are greatly exaggerated. More troubling are the diminishing prospects for a prompt post‐crisis normalization of fiscal and monetary policy, and for a decisive and transparent exit strategy from the present “policies of crisis containment.” In the absence of such decisiveness and transparency, the debate over the efficacy of market‐based capitalism will continue. The longer‐run challenge is to learn from the crisis and take measures designed to limit risk‐taking to acceptable levels in today's global financial environment, with its continuous cross‐border flow of information, trade, and human as well as financial capital. Making Wall Street the villain is the path of least resistance in a politically charged environment, but any fix must be grounded in shared responsibility. As the author says in closing, “Governance, or the lack thereof—both within the private sector as well as by those charged with regulation and oversight—proved to be the weak link in the chain. Fix that, and capitalism will be just fine.”     

Capitalism's renaissance? The potential of repositioning the financial ‘meta-economy’

This paper examines whether the prevailing model of capitalism with its hallmark financial markets is the most productive and stable investment system to underpin the global economy into the future. It returns to the creation of the stock market in 1602 to examine the stock market's origin without the presumption of its respectability. Often considered the genesis of modern corporations and contemporary financial markets, its venerable status is questioned. The instability of the system, established incidental to the Dutch East India Company's solution for financing East Indies voyages and never intended as a model for global capitalism, is found to be insurmountable. Rather than extrapolating the current trajectory of capitalism, an alternative future based on the expansion of productive primary economic activity, is considered. A movement that is evolving spontaneously around innovative lending to expand business enterprises in the primary economy offers the possibility of this alternative future with goals other than amassing capital, more akin to the economic model that originally funded the Renaissance.     

社会保障的外部风险探析

如果把社会保障子系统在社会系统环境因素（如腐败、资金市场、通货膨胀、老龄化、体制转型等）的影响和干扰下出现的风险称为社会保障的＂内部风险＂的话,那么社会保障子系统自身的运行会对社会系统造成某些损失和不确定性就可称为社会保障的＂外部风险＂。这种＂外部风险＂类似于经济学所说的＂负外部性＂,具体包括：社会保障政策出台的风险,因而需要在做出这些政策决策之前先进行政策的社会稳定风险评估;社会保障设施特别是＂邻避＂型设施建设的风险,因而需要加强＂邻避＂风险治理和＂邻避＂事件治理;社会保障待遇承诺的风险,因而急需完善社会保障立法,克服社会保障的＂碎片化＂和＂短期化＂。     

Assessing Systemic Risk Exposure from Banks and GSEs Under Alternative Approaches to Capital Regulation

A key function of capital regulation is to mitigate the potential for systemic financial risk by maintaining public confidence in the ability of regulated market participants to honor their financial obligations in times of market stress. While it is well known that the portfolios of banks and non-banks, especially those intermediaries specializing in mortgage securitization or in specialized mortgage lending, differ in important respects, debate over alternative capital regulations has yet to recognize the implications of these differences, despite the increasing importance of non-bank intermediaries in risk-sharing markets. This paper uses a simple two-date discrete state space exchange economy with opportunities for moral hazard on the part of financial intermediaries to investigate the design of capital regulations to control systemic risk. Holding constant asset risks, we show that intermediaries that issue contingent liabilities may exhibit low or no risk of insolvency while holding significantly less capital than deposit-taking institutions because banks primarily issue claims that promise fixed payments in all states of nature. We also show that, rather than raising capital requirements, the control of systemic risk may involve lowering capital requirements and extending guarantees to liability-holders, without a necessary increase in expected subsidy payments, if such requirements account for shareholder incentives. Specifically, we analyze an example of regulatory policy in which lower capital requirements and an ex post penalty schedule reduce systemic risk by increasing the volume of tradable securities exchanged and by offering a credible mechanism by which intermediaries can signal the true riskiness of their portfolios to liability-holders.     

经常账户冲击、资本账户管理与中央银行货币政策操作

经常账户负向冲击及引发的宏观变量联动性通常对各经济体央行货币政策操作构成挑战。本文构建了融入经常账户冲击的小型开放经济DSGE模型,比较了采取不同资本账户管理工具(数量型和价格型)情景下,央行执行数量型货币政策规则、盯住CPI通胀泰勒规则、盯住PPI通胀泰勒规则下,经常账户负向冲击对货币政策操作的异质性影响及传导机制,并进行了福利分析。主要结论如下:第一,经常账户负向冲击将对本国央行货币政策操作构成一定影响;第二,资本账户管理可以成为缓冲经常账户负向冲击的防火墙,价格型资本账户管理工具与盯住PPI通胀泰勒规则相结合造成的福利损失较小;第三,经常账户贸易端与收益端双重负向冲击对一国货币政策操作的影响更大,但公众预期到的经常账户恶化对货币政策操作的影响将有所减弱。本文认为,转型经济体央行应倾向于执行价格型货币政策规则,最优货币政策应在稳定价格水平与缓释风险方面进行权衡,适度降低对名义汇率的关注度,稳慎推进资本账户开放进程,并可优先选择价格型资本账户管理工具。     

社会保障可持续发展的理论要义与复杂性视阈

从社会学角度理解社会保障可持续发展,往往是将社会保障与社会稳定、社会秩序、社会公平等联系在一起;从经济学角度认识社会保障可持续发展,将收入分配、国民储蓄、财政与金融政策、资本市场、人口老龄化与经济增长等变量与社会保障联系在一起;从政治学角度研究社会保障可持续发展,更多考虑的是社会保障责任政府、政府社会保障职能等问题。社会保障可持续发展的目标是要使全体人民的福祉不断得到改善与发展。社会保障能否可持续发展？需要我们从复杂性视阈的角度进行动态评估,以追求社会保障科学、务实与健康的发展。     

Adjustment Costs and Capital Asset Pricing

Discrete-time models of asset pricing have hitherto generally avoided studying the relationship between the underlying technology inherent in the economy and the determinants of the price of capital. A fully articulated economy is constructed in which there is a nontrivial technology for producing capital. The existence of adjustment costs in augmenting the quantity of capital has interesting implications for the stochastic properties of asset prices, as well as other macroeconomic variables. Examples of such economies are used to illustrate this point.     

从镀金时代的美国看垄断对社会矛盾的激化

“镀金时代”即美国19世纪后期，这是美国从自由资本主义向垄断资本主义过渡的时期。美国资本主义从自由竞争到垄断的过程，是经济发展和市场竞争的结果，总体上看利大于弊，应视为历史的进步。但与此同时，垄断导致了诸多社会问题，工人、农民和消费者受害尤深，反抗运动此起彼伏，是镀金时代美国社会矛盾激化的最主要原因之一。目前，中国经济中的垄断现象也很突出，而且同样在激化社会矛盾，镀金时代的美国经验可资借鉴。     

社会保险市场上的逆向选择与公共政策干预:国际研究动态述评

随着社会经济的进步与发展,提供社会保险日益成为现代政府的重要任务,而信息不对称带来的逆向选择这一市场失灵问题是政府提供社会保险的主要经济依据之一。由此,近年来国际学术界涌现出一大批关于社会保险市场上逆向选择与公共政策干预问题的研究文献,在将理论与数据相结合以分析公共政策的福利影响方面出现了很多研究进展。本文就尝试对这一领域的研究进行总结与分析,为国内学术研究的开展与公共经济政策的设计提供有益借鉴。