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1.
For a firm financed by a mixture of collateralized (short-term) debt and uncollateralized (long-term) debt, we show that fluctuations in margin requirements, reflecting funding liquidity shocks, lead to increasing the firm’s default risk and credit spreads. The severity with which a firm is hit by increasing margin requirements highly depends on both its financing structure and debt maturity structure. Our results imply that an additional premium should be added when evaluating debt in order to account for rollover risks, especially for short-matured bonds. In terms of policy implications, our results strongly indicate that regulators should intervene fast to curtail margins in crisis periods and maintain a reasonably low margin level in order to effectively prevent creditors’ run on debt. 相似文献
2.
We study the effect of rollover risk on the risk of default using a comprehensive database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986–2013. Dependence on bank financing is the key driver of the impact of rollover risk on default risk. Default risk and rollover risk present a significant positive relation in firms dependent on bank financing. In contrast, rollover risk is uncorrelated with default probability in the case of firms that do not rely on bank financing. Our measure of rollover risk is the amount of long-term debt maturing in one year, weighted by total assets. In the case of a firm that depends on bank financing, an increase of one standard deviation in this measure leads to a significant increase of 3.2% in its default probability within one year. Other drivers affecting the interaction between rollover risk and default risk are whether a firm suffers from declining profitability and has poor credit. Additionally, rollover risk's impact on default probability is stronger during periods when credit market conditions are tighter. 相似文献
3.
JEROME S. FONS 《The Journal of Finance》1987,42(1):81-97
The development of organized markets for speculative-grade corporate debt has provided financial researchers with an opportunity to examine the pricing of default risk. By incorporating previous work on the default experience of low-rated corporate debt, this paper presents an introduction to risk-neutral models of risky-bond pricing and uses these to examine the relationship between the default premium embodied in bond yields and actual default rates. The contribution of macroeconomic information to the default premium is also examined. The author finds that holders of low-grade bonds have, on average, been compensated for losses due to default. 相似文献
4.
Liquidity and Credit Risk 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
We develop a structural bond valuation model to simultaneously capture liquidity and credit risk. Our model implies that renegotiation in financial distress is influenced by the illiquidity of the market for distressed debt. As default becomes more likely, the components of bond yield spreads attributable to illiquidity increase. When we consider finite maturity debt, we find decreasing and convex term structures of liquidity spreads. Using bond price data spanning 15 years, we find evidence of a positive correlation between the illiquidity and default components of yield spreads as well as support for downward‐sloping term structures of liquidity spreads. 相似文献
5.
The pricing and control of firms debt has become a majorissue since Mertons (1974) seminal article. Yet Mertonas well as other recent theories presume that the asset valueof the firm is independent of the debt of the firm. However,when using debt finance, firms may have to pay a premium foran idiosyncratic default risk and may face debt constraints.We demonstrate that firm-specific debt constraints and endogenousrisk premia, based on collateralized borrowing, affect the assetvalue of the firm and, in turn, the collateral value of thefirm. In order to explore the interdependence of debt financeand asset pricing of firms, we endogenize default premia andborrowing constraints in a production-based asset pricing model.In this context then the dynamic decision problem of maximizingthe present value of the firm faces an additional constraintgiving rise to the debt-dependent firm value. We solve for theasset value of the firm with debt finance by the use of numericaldynamic programming. This allows us to solve the debt controlproblem and to compute sustainable debt as well as the firmsdebt value. 相似文献
6.
Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds? 总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12
This article provides an empirical decomposition of the default,liquidity, and tax factors that determine expected corporatebond returns. In particular, the risk premium associated witha default event is estimated. The intensity-based model is estimatedusing bond price data for 104 US firms and historical defaultrates. Significant risk premia on common intensity factors andimportant tax and liquidity effects are found. These componentsgo a long way towards explaining the level of expected corporatebond returns. Adding a positive default event risk premium helpsto explain the remaining error, although this premium cannotbe estimated with high statistical precision. 相似文献
7.
Robert J. Bianchi Michael E. Drew Eduardo Roca Timothy Whittaker 《Accounting & Finance》2017,57(2):373-400
This study examines the risk factors in Australian bond returns. The study quantifies bond liquidity and estimates a liquidity risk factor in the Australian setting. We develop a three‐factor asset pricing framework that uses term, default and liquidity risk factors to explain the variation of Australian bond returns. Our findings corroborate the US evidence on the pervasiveness of these risk factors faced by bond investors. The three‐factor model developed in this study has practical applications when calculating the cost of debt, evaluating the performance of an active bond fund manager and hedging underlying risk in a bond portfolio. 相似文献
8.
DAVID CASHIN ERIN E. SYRON FERRIS ELIZABETH KLEE 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2023,55(6):1475-1506
Treasury securities enjoy a “money premium” because they are ultra-safe and liquid. However, during debt limit impasses, the safety and liquidity of Treasury securities temporarily deteriorate, eroding the money premium. Using past impasses, we find the money premium eroded by roughly six basis points across all Treasury securities and up to 50 basis points for the shortest maturities at the greatest risk of a delayed principal payment. Safety and liquidity each accounted for about half of the erosion. The deterioration of safety and liquidity also appears to interact, consistent with theories of default-driven liquidity risk and the information sensitivity of debt. 相似文献
9.
Ronald W. Spahr Robert G. Schwebach Mark A. Sunderman 《The Journal of risk and insurance》2002,69(4):489-516
We investigate whether primary market, original‐issue risk premiums on speculative‐grade debt are justified solely by expected defaults or whether these risk premiums also include other orthogonal risk components. Studies of secondary‐market holding period risk and return have hypothesized that risk premiums on speculative‐grade debt may be explained by bond‐ and equity‐related systematic risk and possibly other types of risk. Using an actuarial approach that considers contemporaneous correlation between default frequency and severity and first‐order serial correlation, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the entire original‐issue risk premium can be explained by expected default losses. This suggests that speculative‐grade bond primary markets efficiently price default risk and that other types of risk are priced as coincident as opposed to orthogonal risks. 相似文献
10.
Viewing equity as a call option on the firm’s assets with a strike price equal to contractual debt obligations yields an asymmetric
prediction on how debt and equity markets view sustained growth. Debt holders are expected to benefit from sustained growth
when the default risk is high, while equity holders value such growth when risk is low. Using Altman’s z-score and debt ratings as alternative proxies for the default risk, we document a negative association between bond yield
spreads and sustained growth in earnings for firms with high risk only. In sharp contrast, using earnings multiples from returns-earnings regressions as a proxy for equity market rewards,
we find that earnings multiples are larger when earnings growth is sustained for the low risk sample only. Decomposing earnings growth into revenue and nonrevenue growth, we find that the debt market rewards for
firms with revenue growth are confined to the high risk sample only, while nonrevenue growth firms are not rewarded for either
sample. Equity investors value revenue-led earnings growth for low and high risk samples while nonrevenue growth is rewarded
for the low risk sample only. Our study adds to our understanding of how changes in firm value from sustained earnings and
revenue growth are divided between key providers of capital and how default risk plays an instrumental role in this valuation
process. 相似文献
11.
MICHAEL SCHWERT 《The Journal of Finance》2017,72(4):1683-1722
This paper examines the pricing of municipal bonds. I use three distinct, complementary approaches to decompose municipal bond spreads into default and liquidity components, and find that default risk accounts for 74% to 84% of the average spread after adjusting for tax‐exempt status. The first approach estimates the liquidity component using transaction data, the second measures the default component with credit default swap data, and the third is a quasi‐natural experiment that estimates changes in default risk around pre‐refunding events. The price of default risk is high given the rare incidence of municipal default and implies a high risk premium. 相似文献
12.
We derive an equilibrium asset pricing model incorporating liquidity risk, derivatives, and short‐selling due to hedging of nontraded risk. We show that illiquid assets can have lower expected returns if the short‐sellers have more wealth, lower risk aversion, or shorter horizon. The pricing of liquidity risk is different for derivatives than for positive‐net‐supply assets, and depends on investors' net nontraded risk exposure. We estimate this model for the credit default swap market. We find strong evidence for an expected liquidity premium earned by the credit protection seller. The effect of liquidity risk is significant but economically small. 相似文献
13.
Deterioration in debt market liquidity reduces debt values and affects firms' decisions. Considering such risk, we develop an investment timing model and obtain analytic solutions. We carry out a comprehensive analysis in optimal financing, default, and investment strategies, and stockholder–bondholder conflicts. Our model explains stylized facts and replicates empirical findings in credit spreads. We obtain six new insights for decision makers. We propose a ‘new trade-off theory’ for optimal capital structure, a new tax effect, and new explanations of ‘debt conservatism puzzle’ and ‘zero-leverage puzzle’. Failure in recognizing liquidity risk results in substantially over-leveraging, early bankruptcy or investment, overpriced options, and undervalued coupons and credit spreads. In addition, agency costs are surprisingly small for a high liquidity risk or a low project risk. Interestingly, the risk shifting incentive and debt overhang problem decrease with liquidity risk under moderate tax rates while they increase under high tax rates. 相似文献
14.
We show that the prospect of a debt renegotiation favorable to shareholders reduces the firm's equity risk. Equity beta and return volatility are lower in countries where the bankruptcy code favors debt renegotiations and for firms with more shareholder bargaining power relative to debt holders. These relations weaken as the country's insolvency procedure favors liquidations over renegotiations. In the limit, when debt contracts cannot be renegotiated, equity risk is independent of shareholders' incentives to default strategically. We argue that these findings support the hypothesis that the threat of strategic default can reduce the firm's equity risk. 相似文献
15.
Håkan Jankensgård 《实用企业财务杂志》2010,22(4):103-109
This article presents the outline of a framework for evaluating liquidity risk (at the corporate level) with risk measures that are intuitive and economically relevant. In particular, the risk measures are designed explicitly to show the effectiveness of a company's risk management program in helping the firm to (1) avoid financial distress or default and (2) ensure its ability to undertake all strategic investments. For managers attempting to quantify liquidity risks, this paper proposes that the risk measures have two important features: One is to make the liquidity risk estimate depend on some measure of the firm's balance sheet strength, one that reflects the role of the balance sheet as a risk buffer. The second is to provide a useful estimate of the opportunity costs associated with a given liquidity shortage—one that reflects the value of the investment opportunities that liquidity problems could jeopardize. The author illustrates the application of the proposed risk measures with an example of a company evaluating a hedging strategy designed to accompany a substantial increase in its investment budget. Using the risk measures discussed in this paper, the author shows how to assess the effectiveness of a proposed hedge in terms of its expected ability to reduce costly cash shortfalls in scenarios in which the firm's debt capacity is also expected to be depleted. 相似文献
16.
We examine optimal liquidity (retained earnings) and dividend choice incorporating debt financing with risk of default and bankruptcy costs as well as growth options under revenue uncertainty. We revisit the conditions for dividend policy irrelevancy and the broader role of retained earnings and dividends. Retained earnings have a net positive impact on firm value in the presence of growth options, high external financing costs and low default risk. High levels of retained earnings enhance debt capacity but have a negative effect on equity value due to the likelihood of losing accumulated cash balances in case of default, unless offset by high external financing costs. Opposite directional effects of retained earnings on equity and debt create a U-shaped relation with firm value. The framework is extended to analyze management-shareholder conflicts, demonstrating that managers accumulate higher than optimal cash. 相似文献
17.
We examine optimal liquidity (retained earnings) and dividend choice incorporating debt financing with risk of default and bankruptcy costs as well as growth options under revenue uncertainty. We revisit the conditions for dividend policy irrelevancy and the broader role of retained earnings and dividends. Retained earnings have a net positive impact on firm value in the presence of growth options, high external financing costs and low default risk. High levels of retained earnings enhance debt capacity but have a negative effect on equity value due to the likelihood of losing accumulated cash balances in case of default, unless offset by high external financing costs. Opposite directional effects of retained earnings on equity and debt create a U-shaped relation with firm value. The framework is extended to analyze management-shareholder conflicts, demonstrating that managers accumulate higher than optimal cash. 相似文献
18.
In this paper, we analyse the restructuring of debt in the presence of debt overhang. The firm starts out with a debt liability and an investment opportunity. Then with unrestructured debt, the firm maintains the current borrowing payments until default or investment. If the creditors allow the parties to restructure the debt with exchange offers, then the borrowing payments change as well as the default and investment points. We find that there is a unique optimal restructuring path which maintains debt at positive levels but defers default indefinitely. This path is optimal regardless of whether the debt holders or the firm control the process through superior bargaining power. Moreover, a debt-for-equity exchange to remove all existing debt takes place just before investment that is followed by the issue of an optimal amount of new debt as part of the funding for the investment cost. The optimal investment trigger is higher along the optimal restructuring path than it is for an unlevered firm. We discuss the findings in the light of existing empirical evidence. 相似文献
19.
Research shows that by enhancing visibility, advertising improves stock liquidity and returns. Unlike stock holders, bond holders may view advertising skeptically. Without proven effectiveness in improving revenues, large pre-interest advertising expenditures can be seen as eroding a firm's ability to meet its debt service obligations. We find that although greater advertising by a firm improves liquidity of its bonds in the market, it does not lower the firm's cost of debt. However, firms with ineffective advertising experience reduced bond market liquidity and a higher cost of debt. Without a real positive economic impact, advertising has little or no value for bond investors. 相似文献
20.
Ernst Eberlein 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(5):709-724
When firms access unbounded liability exposures and are granted limited liability, then an all equity firm holds a call option, whereby it receives a free option to put losses back to the taxpayers. We call this option the taxpayer put, where the strike is the negative of the level of reserve capital at stake in the firm. We contribute by (i) valuing this taxpayer put, and (ii) determining the level for reserve capital without a reference to ratings. Reserve capital levels are designed to mitigate the adverse incentives for unnecessary risk introduced by the taxpayer put at the firm level. In our approach, the level of reserve capital is set to make the aggregate risk of the firm externally acceptable, where the specific form of acceptability employed is positive expectation under a concave distortion of the cash flow distribution. It is observed that, in the presence of the taxpayer put, debt holders may not be relied upon to monitor risk as their interests are partially aligned with equity holders by participating in the taxpayer put. Furthermore, the taxpayer put leads to an equity pricing model associated with a market discipline that punishes perceived cash shortfalls. 相似文献