PRICING AND HEDGING SHORT STERLING OPTIONS USING NEURAL NETWORKS

This paper compares the performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) with that of the modified Black model in both pricing and hedging short sterling options. Using high‐frequency data, standard and hybrid ANNs are trained to generate option prices. The hybrid ANN is significantly superior to both the modified Black model and the standard ANN in pricing call and put options. Hedge ratios for hedging short sterling options positions using short sterling futures are produced using the standard and hybrid ANN pricing models, the modified Black model, and also standard and hybrid ANNs trained directly on the hedge ratios. The performance of hedge ratios from ANNs directly trained on actual hedge ratios is significantly superior to those based on a pricing model, and to the modified Black model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved method for static replication under the CEV model

This paper studies the hedging performance of static replication approach proposed by Derman, Ergener, and Kani (DEK, 1995) for continuous barrier options under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model of Cox (1975) and Cox and Ross (1976), and then focuses on how to improve the DEK method. Given the time-varying volatility feature of the CEV model, I show that the DEK static hedging portfolio exhibits serious mismatches of the theta values on the barrier, particularly when one of the component options of the portfolio is around the neighborhood of expiration, which primarily explains why static portfolio values are greater than zero on the barrier except at the matching points. The DEK method (hereafter, the improved DEK method) is improved by re-forming a static replication portfolio consisting of plain vanilla options and cash-or-nothing binary options with different maturities to match both the value-matching condition and the theta-matching condition on the barrier. The numerical analyses indicate that under the CEV model, the improved DEK method significantly reduces replication errors for an up-and-out call option.     

A generalized approach to optimal hedging with option contracts

In this paper, we develop a theoretical model in which a firm hedges a spot position using options in the presence of both quantity (production) and basis risks. Our optimal hedge ratio is fairly general, in that the dependence structure is modeled through a copula function representing the quantiles of the hedged position, and hence any quantile risk measure can be employed. We study the sensitivity of the exercise price which minimizes the risk of the hedged portfolio to the relevant parameters, and we find that the subjective risk aversion of the firm does not play any role. The only trade-off is between the effectiveness and cost of the hedging strategy.     

股指期货与股指期权套期保值组合的Delta中性动态模拟——基于沪深300股指期货仿真交易的分析

沪深300股指期货的推出,在为市场提供套保工具和流动性的同时,也带来新的风险。本文运用同一指数的股指期权与股指期货组成多种动态套期保值组合,分析股指期货的风险对冲策略。结果表明所构造的组合都能为股指期货提供有效的套期保值;不论多头股指期货还是空头股指期货,保护性策略的风险控制能力更强。     

Optimal static quadratic hedging

We propose a flexible framework for hedging a contingent claim by holding static positions in vanilla European calls, puts, bonds and forwards. A model-free expression is derived for the optimal static hedging strategy that minimizes the expected squared hedging error subject to a cost constraint. The optimal hedge involves computing a number of expectations that reflect the dependence among the contingent claim and the hedging assets. We provide a general method for approximating these expectations analytically in a general Markov diffusion market. To illustrate the versatility of our approach, we present several numerical examples, including hedging path-dependent options and options written on a correlated asset.     

Analysing multi-level Monte Carlo for options with non-globally Lipschitz payoff

Giles (Oper. Res. 56:607–617, 2008) introduced a multi-level Monte Carlo method for approximating the expected value of a function of a stochastic differential equation solution. A key application is to compute the expected payoff of a financial option. This new method improves on the computational complexity of standard Monte Carlo. Giles analysed globally Lipschitz payoffs, but also found good performance in practice for non-globally Lipschitz cases. In this work, we show that the multi-level Monte Carlo method can be rigorously justified for non-globally Lipschitz payoffs. In particular, we consider digital, lookback and barrier options. This requires non-standard strong convergence analysis of the Euler–Maruyama method.      

Exchange options under clustered jump dynamics

Exchange options are one of the most popular exotic options, and have important implications for many common financial arrangements and for implied beta as a measure of systematic risk. In this study, we extend the existing literature on exchange options to allow for clustered jump contagion dynamics in each single asset, as well as across assets, using the Hawkes jump-diffusion model. We derive the analytical pricing formulae, the Greeks, and the optimal hedging strategy via Fourier transforms. Using an illustrative numerical analysis, we present the relationship between the exchange option price and clustered jump intensities and jump sizes in the underlying assets. We discuss the managerial insights on financial arrangements with exchange option characteristics. Furthermore, we discuss the implications of incorporating clustered jumps into the estimation of implied beta with exchange options, in which the applications can be insightful and useful in finance practice.     

Profit Possibilities in Currency Markets: Arbitrage, Hedging, and Speculation

This paper reviews and extends the existing literature on covered arbitrage, delineates the conditions for profitable arbitrage with the hedging instruments of forward and options contracts in the foreign exchange markets, and defines the maximum possible profits out of a given market environment. Next, the simple rules on speculation are articulated with and without transaction costs, and then we show how speculation can be covered with options and forwards. Finally, speculation is integrated with arbitrage and hedging, and further compounding of profit possibilities is illustrated.     

Sub-Replication and Replenishing Premium: Efficient Pricing of Multi-State Lookbacks

The direct valuation procedure of performing discounted expectation to obtain the prices of multi-state lookback options may lead to insurmountable complexity and numerical difficulties. The computation may require numerical differentiation of the joint distribution function of the extremum values, then followed by numerical integration over a semi-infinite domain. In this paper, we illustrate the use of an alternative approach that significantly simplifies the calculations of multi-state lookback option prices. The financial intuition behind the new approach involves the choice of a sub-replicating portfolio and the adoption of the corresponding replenishing strategy to achieve the subsequent full replication of the derivative. The replenishing premium is obtained by performing the integration of an appropriate distribution function over the range of asset price within which under replication occurs. The sub-replication and replenishment procedures may be utilized as hedging strategies for the lookback options. The pricing and hedging properties of multi-state lookback options are also discussed. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Managerial Stock Options and the Hedging Premium

Previous studies have found mixed evidence on whether hedging increases firm value. Some studies have shown that managerial incentives may influence firm hedging. In this paper we provide evidence that when hedging is based upon incentives from managers' options, firm value decreases.     

Financial contagion and asset pricing

Asset market interconnectedness can give rise to significant contagion risks during periods of financial crises that extend beyond the risks associated with changes in volatilities and correlations. These channels include the transmission of shocks operating through changes in the higher order comoments of asset returns, including changes in coskewness arising from changes in the interaction between volatility and average returns across asset markets. These additional contagion channels have nontrivial implications for the pricing of options through changes in the payoff probability structure and more generally, in the management of financial risks. The effects of incorrectly pricing risk has proved to be significant during many financial crises, including the subprime crisis from mid 2007 to mid 2008, the Great Recession beginning 2008 and the European debt crisis from 2010. Using an exchange options model, the effects of changes in the comoments of asset returns across asset markets are investigated with special emphasis given to understanding the effects on hedging risk during financial crises. The results reveal that by not correctly pricing the risks arising from higher order moments during financial crises, there is significant mispricing of options, while hedged portfolios during noncrisis periods become exposed to price movements in times of crises.     

Dynamic hedging of single and multi-dimensional options with transaction costs: a generalized utility maximization approach

We propose a new methodology for discrete time dynamic hedging with transaction costs that has three key performance features. First, the methodology can accommodate the use of a wide range of objective functions, from the use of many types of utility functions to the more traditional objectives of hedging error minimization. Second, our methodology can significantly outperform traditional dynamic hedging methodologies across a range of objective functions. Third, our methodology can be applied to both single and multi-dimensional options while analytical methods typically can only be applied to single dimensional options.     

Financial Leverage,CEO Compensation,and Corporate Hedging: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This paper studies the determinants of corporate hedging practices in the REIT industry between 1999 and 2001. We find a positive significant relation between hedging and financial leverage, indicating the financial distress costs motive for using derivatives in the REIT industry. Using estimates of the Black–Scholes sensitivity of CEO’s stock option portfolios to stock return volatility and the sensitivity of CEO’s stock and stock option portfolios to stock price, we find evidence to support managerial risk aversion motive for corporate hedging in the REIT industry. Our results indicate that CEO’s cash compensation and the CEO’s wealth sensitivity to stock return volatility are significant determinants of derivative use in REITs. We also document a significant positive relation between institutional ownership and hedging activity. Further, we find that probability of hedging is related to economies of scale in hedging costs.

Pricing by hedging and no-arbitrage beyond semimartingales

We show that pricing a big class of relevant options by hedging and no-arbitrage can be extended beyond semimartingale models. To this end we construct a subclass of self-financing portfolios that contains hedges for these options, but does not contain arbitrage opportunities, even if the stock price process is a non-semimartingale of some special type. Moreover, we show that the option prices depend essentially only on a path property of the stock price process, viz. on the quadratic variation. We end the paper by giving no-arbitrage results even with stopping times for our model class.      

Calibration and hedging under jump diffusion

A jump diffusion model coupled with a local volatility function has been suggested by Andersen and Andreasen (2000). By generating a set of option prices assuming a jump diffusion with known parameters, we investigate two crucial challenges intrinsic to this type of model: calibration of parameters and hedging of jump risk. Even though the estimation problem is ill-posed, our results suggest that the model can be calibrated with sufficient accuracy. Two different strategies are explored for hedging jump risk: a semi-static approach and a dynamic technique. Simulation experiments indicate that each of these methods can sharply reduce risk exposure. JEL Classification G12 · G13     

Selective hedging strategies for crude oil futures based on market state expectations

This paper studies the ex-ante selective hedging strategies of crude oil futures contracts based on market state expectations and compares the hedging performances to the traditional minimum variance routine hedging strategies. The main advantage of the proposed method is that it achieves a trade-off between return and risk, rather than hedges risk at all costs. Specifically, we first use a multi-input Hidden Markov Model(HMM) to identify the market state, assess the market’s herding impact, and then integrate the findings of identification and measurement to forecast the price trend. We offer an adjustment criterion for the hedge ratios driven by GARCH²-type models based on the anticipated market state. We conducted an empirical analysis to examine the hedging effect of WTI and Brent crude oil futures, the results indicate that the proposed state-dependent hedging strategies are superior to the traditional model-driven hedging strategies concerning the hedged portfolio based on four criteria. The robustness check reveals that the proposed hedging strategies still outperform in different market situation. The findings can help traders in the crude oil markets, and the methodology can be applied to other energy markets.     

Financial Regulation,Exchange Rate Exposure,and Hedging Activities: Evidence from Korean Firms

ABSTRACT

In this article, we attempt to estimate whether firm-specific exchange rate exposures affected by hedging activities can be improved through financial regulation or supervision. To analyze this, we compose three-step estimations by using a sample of KOSPI 200 firms during 1,803 trading days between 2005 and 2012. We first estimate the relationship between exchange rate exposure and hedging activities and see whether financial regulation had any effect on hedging activities. Furthermore, using TSLS analysis, we estimate the effect of hedging activities on exchange rate exposure, which is caused by tightened financial regulation in the form of corporate governance. We report the following findings. First, firms are less likely to be exposed to exchange risk with more hedging activities. Second, corporate governance has a strongly positive effect on the hedging activities. Firms use more hedging tools when they have a strong structure of shareholder’s protection, clear outside ownership, and a better monitoring system; but the relationship becomes weaker in times of crisis.