基于CHFS数据的家庭人口结构与住房需求的实证研究

本文选取2011年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,利用probit模型分析家庭人口特征与住房需求之间的关系,实证结果显示:一个家庭中14岁及以下少儿人口数量和65岁及以上老年人口数量与住房需求均呈反比,说明少儿人口的增加和人口老龄化会抑制居民对住房的需求;30-45岁人口数量与住房需求呈正比,说明劳动人口的增加能促进住房需求,家庭规模的扩大也有助于增加住房需求;城市地区和农村地区住房需求城乡差异较为明显.     

中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给

本文研究了自1980年代后期中国城镇住房商品化以来城镇居民住房的需求与供给。我们从耐用消费品需求与供给的标准理论出发,在联立方程框架下估计城镇住房的需求与供给方程,得到了需求的收入与价格弹性及供给的价格弹性的估计值。通过对1987～2006年全国城镇总体水平年度数据的分析,我们发现城镇住房价格的快速上涨主要可由需求与供给的作用解释,即人均收入和建筑成本的变化决定了房价的整体趋势。城镇住房需求的(长期)收入弹性约为1,需求的价格弹性在0.5到0.6之间。住房存量总供给的价格弹性约为0.83。     

关于我国住房价格变动因素的实证分析——基于住房的供给与需求

本文基于我国2005～2014年十年间的住房供给与需求的数据,运用实证分析方法,将这十年间的住房供需数据进行比较,并与当下我国住房价格变动的实际情况相结合,分析得出影响我国住房价格变动的因素:外部投资与居民购买力。     

房地产市场、人口结构与居民杠杆率——基于省际动态面板数据

本文基于31个省份2007～2017年的动态面板数据,采用系统GMM估计方法研究我国居民杠杆率快速上升的影响因素。实证结果表明,住房价格、住房需求与居民杠杆率存在较强的正相关关系,同时随着人口老龄化加剧,居民杠杆率也将进一步上升。因此,维护房地产市场的稳定和缓解人口老龄化负面影响,对遏制居民杠杆率的快速上升至关重要。     

中国住房市场需求特征分析

住房制度改革深化以来,我国住房市场需求呈现快速上涨趋势,由于短期内供给缺乏弹性,因此住房价格走势与市场需求密切相关。本文分析了这一阶段中国住房消费市场和资产市场的内部需求特点,指出了不同需求群体行为特点对住房市场所造成的影响,针对住房市场需求实际,提出了当前进行需求调控的相关建议。     

住房价格对城镇居民消费影响的再检验

住房价格较高与国内消费不足是现阶段我国亟需解决的两个问题,在中国经济进入新常态的背景下,理清住房价格对于城镇居民消费的影响具有现实指导意义。鉴于此,本文利用中国31个省(市、自治区)2003~2013年数据,基于面板门槛模型,对住房价格与城镇居民消费的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:(1)现阶段我国住房市场总体呈现出"财富效应";(2)住房价格对于城镇居民非居住消费影响具有参数异质性,两者之间存在非线性关系;(3)伴随房价的上涨,房价对城镇居民非居住消费影响的弹性系数从0.0635降至0.0482,"财富效应"有所减弱。     

中国住房供给价格弹性的区域差异及影响因素——基于面板数据的实证分析

近年来,中国城镇化进程加快及经济保持平稳较快发展,带动了住房价格的快速上涨。为遏制房价过快上涨,我们有必要研究住房供给价格弹性及区域差异,为制定差异化的房地产调控政策提供依据。本文对1998～2010年各省份房价及相关数据,建立了固定影响变系数和变截距模型,对中国及各省份的住房供给价格弹性进行实证研究。研究发现,住房供给价格弹性存在显著的区域差异,这主要由土地供给、房地产行业竞争环境以及潜在住房需求等因素决定。最后,我们对各区域的房地产调控重点提出了政策建议。     

人口年龄结构、家庭资产结构与住房财富效应

本文基于中国省级年度面板数据,对住房财富效应与人口年龄结构、家庭资产结构之间的关系进行实证研究。结果发现:我国大部分地区存在正向住房财富效应,且人口年龄结构对各省市住房财富效应的边际影响为正,但老龄人口比重比少年人口比重的边际影响更大;住房资产占比对大部分省市住房财富效应的边际影响为负且影响程度较小;此外,随着老龄人口比重的增加其边际影响呈现下降趋势,而少儿人口比重的增加会导致其边际影响逐步上升,住房资产占比的提高会使其负向边际影响逐渐增大。     

住房价格、房屋购买与中国家庭杠杆率

本文基于中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据以及相匹配的城市层面的住房价格数据,从住房购买需求的角度,给出了一个近年来家庭杠杆率急剧上升的解释。利用中国家庭追踪调查的微观数据探讨了房价上涨对家庭杠杆率的作用机制以及潜在影响。结果表明,住房价格的快速上涨推动了家庭杠杆率的急剧攀升,从数量上看,房价每上涨1倍,样本期间的家庭贷款数额将会增长288.1%,家庭杠杆率将上升39.2%,而此部分贷款的增加主要来源于银行贷款而非私人借贷,由房价导致的家庭借贷数额和杠杆率的上升大概占到购房家庭总体借贷数额和杠杆率上升的90%左右。机制分析表明,住房价格的快速上涨刺激了家庭必需型和投资型住房需求,并提高了家庭的借贷意愿和风险偏好。分样本的探讨发现,这一效应对于非农户口家户以及有配偶和子女家户的影响更为明显。     

基于需求特征分析的住房消费市场需求调控策略选择

住房制度改革深化以来,我国住房市场需求呈现快速上涨趋势。由于短期内供给缺乏弹性．因此住房价格走势与市场需求密切相关。本文分析了这一阶段我国住房消费市场的内部需求特点,指出了不同需求群体行为特点对住房市场的影响。最后针对住房消费市场需求实际,提出了当前进行需求调控的相关建议。     

收入差异下的住房财富效应分化——基于283个地级市数据和CHFS家庭微观数据的实证分析

本文将收入分配结构因素纳入LC-PIH模型,试图从收入分层角度寻找我国住房市场弱财富效应的根源。基于283个地级市的面板数据和CHFS家庭微观调查数据的实证研究表明:房价对消费的影响具有门限特征,中等收入城市的住房财富效应最为明显;收入作用下的家庭住房财富效应也呈现倒U形。总体上,我国住房财富效应较弱源于收入的结构性差异,中等收入群体比重偏低可能导致房价上涨对消费的促进作用被低收入阶层和高收入阶层的挤出作用抵消。     

银行信贷、房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系研究——基于省际面板平滑转换模型的实证检验

选用中国2000~2014年31个省的面板数据,以银行信贷为转换变量,通过构建面板平滑转换模型对我国房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系进行考察。研究发现：当信贷增长率低于28.74%时,房价增长率对经济增长产生比较显著的正向影响;当信贷增长率高于28.74%时,房价增长率对经济增长起到了明显的阻碍作用。因此,为了实现“稳定房价和保持经济平稳增长”的目标,央行应将信贷增速维持在低增长体制的最优区间中。同时,央行还应该改善信贷结构,鼓励和引导金融资源进行合理配置。     

Demographic Change and Pharmaceuticals' Stock Returns

We analyse how demographic change affected profits and returns across pharmaceutical industries over the last 20 years. Fluctuations in different age group sizes influence the estimated demand changes for age‐sensitive drugs, such as antibacterials for young, antidepressants for middle‐aged, and antithrombotics for old people. These demand changes are predictable as soon as a specific age group is born. We use consumption and demographic data to forecast future consumption demand growth for drugs caused by demographic changes in the age structure. We find that long‐term forecast demand changes predict abnormal annual pharmaceutical stock returns for more than 60 firms over the time period from 1986 to 2008. An increase by one percentage point of annual demand growth due to demographic changes predicts an increase in abnormal yearly stock returns in the size of 3–5 percentage points. Short‐term forecast demand changes does predict negative abnormal stock returns for a time horizon below 5 years. A trading strategy taking advantage of the demographic information earns a significant abnormal return between 6 and 8 percentage points per year. Our results are consistent with the model by DellaVigna and Pollet (2007) , where investors are inattentive with extrapolation in the distant future and overreact to information in the near future.     

The relationship between rents and prices of owner-occupied housing in Taiwan

This article analyzes the changes of equilibrium rent and equilibrium price of owner-occupied housing in Taiwan, and also computes the rent multiplier and its trend in the past ten years in Taiwan to show how the housing consumption and housing investment change. A hedonic rent equation and a hedonic housing price equation are built first. Then, we apply the Housing Survey Report data from 1979 to 1989, and employ ordinary-least squares method to estimate the two equations. Using estimated coefficients of the two equations, we compute the market rents for owner-occupied housing and the market prices for rental housing. Finally, the rent multipliers are calculated from the market rents and market prices. The article finds that (1) changes of housing prices in Taipei lead to price changes in Kaoshung, and the latter leads Taiwan province; (2) changes of rent are much smaller than the changes of housing price; and (3) housing prices in Taiwan increased drastically. We also find: (1) at the peak of the housing market cycle, the rent multiplier is extremely high; (2) the rent multiplier drops in the year after the peak year because the rent catches up; (3) the rent multiplier in Taipei is greater than that of Kaoshung, and the multiplier in Kaoshung is greater than that of Taiwan province; and (4) overall, the rent multiplier in Taiwan is much greater than that of the United States.     

住房财富对中国城镇家庭消费的影响

在构建以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下,把握扩大内需这一战略基点,激发居民消费潜力,是推动经济高质量发展的关键之一。住房已经成为中国家庭财富的重要组成部分,一方面可通过财富效应促进家庭消费,另一方面也可能由于“房奴效应”降低家庭消费。因此,住房财富对家庭消费的影响方向并不确定。本文基于2013-2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,研究了住房财富对家庭消费的影响,并检验了住房财富影响家庭消费的可能渠道。研究发现,住房财富对城镇家庭消费有显著促进作用,并显著改善了家庭消费结构,住房资产具有财富效应。进一步研究发现,住房财富能够缓解流动性约束,从而提高家庭消费水平。异质性分析表明,住房财富对不同类型的消费具有不同的促进作用,不同地区和拥有住房数量的差别均会对住房财富产生不同影响。根据本文研究,在控制风险的前提下,可发挥既有住房财富对平滑家庭消费的积极作用,促进家庭消费增长,改善家庭消费结构,进一步推进家庭消费升级。     

人口老龄化背景下我国住房需求变化趋势与养老地产发展研究

摘要：人口结构变化对住房市场需求会产生一定影响，本文从我国人口老龄化的现状出发，指出了家庭养老和社会养老模式下老年人的住房需求偏好和需求特点，在分析我国养老地产现状的基础上，提出了促进养老地产发展的思路和建议。     

基于消费视角的我国城镇居民住房需求问题研究

“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”。根据中央经济工作会议的精神,文章重点从 住房消费属性的层面对我国城镇居民住房需求进行了深入探讨,运用我国2007-2017年31个省（直辖市、自治区）的住房市场数据对影响居民购房的因素进行了实证,在考虑了城市化发展 带动的同时,通过对住房需求市场的收入弹性、价格弹性等进行分析,结果表明：（1）价格对 住房消费需求的调控效果有限;（2）居民对改善居住条件的欲望保持强劲势头;（3）城市化 进程对住房需求所起作用在逐步减弱。     

Understanding Housing Market Volatility

The Campbell–Shiller present value formula implies a factor structure for the price–rent ratio of housing market. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose the price–rent ratios of 23 major housing markets into a national factor and independent local factors, and we link these factors to the economic fundamentals of the housing markets. We find that a large fraction of housing market volatility is local and that the national factor has become more important than local factors in driving housing market volatility since 1999, consistent with the findings in Del Negro and Otrok (2007). The local volatilities mostly are due to time variations of idiosyncratic housing market risk premia, not local growth. At the aggregate level, the growth and interest rate factors jointly account for less than half of the total variation in the price–rent ratio. The rest is due to the aggregate housing market risk premium and a pricing error. We find evidence that the pricing error is related to money illusion, especially at the onset of the recent housing market bubble. The rapid rise in housing prices prior to the 2008 financial crisis was accompanied by both a large increase in the pricing error and a large decrease in the housing market risk premium.     

The Housing Market Effects of Local Home Purchase Restrictions: Evidence from Beijing

Home prices have surged in major Chinese cities, leading to concerns of asset price bubbles and housing affordability. The policy of home purchase restrictions (HPR) has been one of China’s harshest housing market interventions to squeeze out speculative demand and dampen the soaring home prices. Beijing was the first city to implement the HPR. Employing the regression discontinuity design technique, we find that Beijing’s HPR policy triggered a 17–24 % decrease in resale price, a drop in the price-to-rent ratio of about a quarter of its mean value, and a deep (1/2 to 3/4) reduction in the transaction volume of the for-sale market, with no significant change in the rent or the transaction volume of rental units. In submarkets where housing supply was less elastic, the effects of the HPR were larger in price and smaller in quantity, suggesting that wealthy buyers likely benefited more from the HPR. The scope of the analysis does not allow conclusions regarding the persistence or longevity of these effects.