论财政风险与金融风险

当前，金融风险问题引起了人们的高度关注。在我国由计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制的转型时期，金融风险与财政风险呈现高度的相关性，探讨金融风险与财政风险的相互关系、金融风险财政化的原因以及如何防范与化解，不仅有助于为人们提供实现自己有目的的活动选择相对更好的实现方式或路径，而且更重要的是能为人们在经济活动中尽量减少风险、增加确定性、节约活动成本并提高其价值服务。     

关于我国财政风险的金融化与金融风险的财政化

在成熟市场经济体制下，财政与金融相对独立，不存在财政风险与金融风险的直接相互转化问题。因为财政不能直接干预金融企业，出现财政风险时，财政一般无法通过透支等途径直接向银行等金融机构转嫁风险，财政风险的金融化程度很低；而自主经营、自负盈亏的金融企业自身的风险也不能直接要财政来承担，金融风险的财政化解决成本比较小。因此，财政风险与金融风险之间不存在直接的相关性（但存在间接相关性）。     

论财政风险与金融风险

当前,金融风险问题引起了人们的高度关注。在我国由计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制的转型时期,金融风险与财政风险呈现高度的相关性,探讨金融风险与财政风险的相互关系、金融风险财政化的原因以及如何防范与化解,不仅有助于为人们提供实现自己有目的的活动选择相对更好的实现方式     

国有金融资本财政监管的理论逻辑和实践路径

财政监管国有金融资本既是实现国家治理现代化、履行财政出资人职责的客观要求，又是维护国有金融资本健康发展、防范化解财政金融风险的必然选择。当前，我国财政风险金融化和金融风险财政化并存，地方政府隐性债务问题、区域性金融风险问题不容忽视，亟需推动财政监管扩围改革，敦促国有金融体系高质量发展。笔者根据财政金融风险结构关系、财政救助化解金融风险以及监管国有金融资本的理论逻辑，分析财政监管国有金融资本的实践基础和存在问题，提出财政监管国有金融资本的框架体系和实现路径，以进一步完善国有金融资本监管体制、维护国有金融资本健康发展、防范财政金融风险。     

防范宏观金融风险的财政制度安排

宏观金融风险是近年来我国经济中的一个突出表象，其成因是多方面的，其中财政政策的不当是主要方面。因此，要根据国际、国内金融结构存在的问题及风险，构建宏观金融风险防范体系的财政制度。     

财政风险的金融视角：共生性及其破解

我国的特殊国情决定了金融风险与财政风险存在着内在相关性。近年来我国财政赤字的逐年俱增，同时金融风险成为财政或有负债主要的来源，金融风险向财政转化的比例过高，我国已经进入“强金融，弱财政”的宏观经济状态。在金融视角下对财政赤字的分析，有助于我们寻找化解财政风险和金融风险之策。     

宏观金融风险与政府财政责任

金融风险是指金融交易过程中因各种不确定性因素而导致损失的可能性。从层次论来分析，可分为宏观金融风险和微观金融风险。宏观金融风险属于公共风险，其责任主体是政府，而微观金融风险属于个体（私人）风险，其责任主体是金融机构。因此，只有宏观金融风险才属于公共风险，与政府的财政责任有内在的关联性，构成财政风险的重要来源。基于这种判断，我国财政部门还承担金融监管的职能，以防范财政风险。     

政府机构化解金融风险研究

金融风险是指金融交易过程中因备种不确定性因素而导致损失的可能性。政府机构要明确在防范、化解与处置金融风险中的职能定位,建立防范、化解与处置金融风险协调机制,努力维护金融稳定和促进经济社会的全面发展具有重要意义,以避免政府财政责任变为仅仅是事后买单。现此问题进     

转型期财政风险与金融风险的相互转化机理分析

本文主要分析了转型期财政风险与金融风险的特点及发生的潜在原因，着重剖析了其内在联系，并提出了治理和防范财政与金融风险的相关对策。     

我国金融风险财政化问题的研究

金融风险财政化是我国处理金融风险问题的一种特殊模式,带有很强的体制转轨特征,从本质上来说,金融风险属于公共风险范畴,这就决定了金融风险财政化的客观必然性。金融风险财政化存在着诸多弊端,对此,本文提出了几点对策建议。     

Rollover Risk and Credit Risk

Our model shows that deterioration in debt market liquidity leads to an increase in not only the liquidity premium of corporate bonds but also credit risk. The latter effect originates from firms' debt rollover. When liquidity deterioration causes a firm to suffer losses in rolling over its maturing debt, equity holders bear the losses while maturing debt holders are paid in full. This conflict leads the firm to default at a higher fundamental threshold. Our model demonstrates an intricate interaction between the liquidity premium and default premium and highlights the role of short‐term debt in exacerbating rollover risk.     

会计核算风险的风险矩阵计量分析及其运用

风险计量是开展风险监督管理的基础,是确认风险状态的重要依据,其准确性直接影响风险监督管理的水平.本文结合人民银行事后监督工作实际,在分析监督检查中积累的会计核算差错数据基础上,构建核算风险矩阵,对风险影响等级、风险发生概率进行综合评估,并利用风险等级量化和Borda序值方法给出风险排序、对风险点进行计量得出风险值,从而为人民银行加强风险监督工作提供依据.     

风险映射与商业银行操作风险控制

风险映射与操作风险的识别 操作风险的识别过程实际上就是对金融机构业务活动的各个阶段进行风险映射(risk mapping),从而识别操作过程中的关键风险因素.风险映射作为操作风险管理的基础,它与市场风险和信用风险不同,它无法针对具体的产品.     

内部控制、风险控制与风险管理——基于组织目标的概念解说与思想演进

COSO报告(2004)认为内部控制是风险管理的组成部分。但是,内部控制与风险管理在功能和内涵上究竟是什么关系,这方面的研究并不充分。本文从组织目标出发,对内部控制、风险控制以及风险管理三者之间的关系进行了基本的概念解说,并从历史变迁的角度,研究了内部控制、风险控制和风险管理三者的思想内涵及其演进过程。     

Currency Risk and Country Risk in International Banking

This paper focuses on the conditions under which banks are subject to currency and country risks on their dollar-denominated loans to foreign firms and governments. We conclude that currency risk is a function of the rates of domestic and foreign inflation, deviations from purchasing power parity, and the effect of these deviations on the firm's and the nation's dollar-equivalent cash flows. Country risk is largely determined by the variability of the nation's terms of trade and the government's willingness to allow the national economy to adjust rapidly to changing economic fortunes.     

证券公司风险来源与业务风险点

十多年来,随着我国证券市场的发展,我国的证券公司也得到了迅速地发展,但由于受到各方面的影响和制约,证券公司在经营和管理上难免存在一些问题,这些问题决定了现阶段我国证券公司的审计属于一项高风险的审计.     

Characteristics of Risk and Return in Risk Arbitrage

This paper analyzes 4,750 mergers from 1963 to 1998 to characterize the risk and return in risk arbitrage. Results indicate that risk arbitrage returns are positively correlated with market returns in severely depreciating markets but uncorrelated with market returns in flat and appreciating markets. This suggests that returns to risk arbitrage are similar to those obtained from selling uncovered index put options. Using a contingent claims analysis that controls for the nonlinear relationship with market returns, and after controlling for transaction costs, we find that risk arbitrage generates excess returns of four percent per year.     

A Value at Risk Approach to Background Risk

This paper studies the effects of an uninsurable background risk (BR) on the demand for insurance (proportional and with deductible). We study both the case of BR uncorrelated with the insurable one and the perfectly correlated one, in a Gaussian world. In order to perform our study, we exploit the new risk measure known as Value at Risk (VaR) and consider insurance contracts which are Mean-VaR efficient. We obtain results which depend on the parameters (moments) of both risks and on the magnitude of loadings charged by the insurance company, instead of depending on the risk attitudes of the insured, such as risk aversion and prudence.We demonstrate that, if loadings are not too high, the demand for insurance increases with positively correlated BR; it decreases with BR negatively correlated if the latter is less risky than the insurable one (in this case it can even go to zero, if loadings are too high); it goes to zero with BR which is negatively correlated and more risky than the insurable one.     

Risk assessment

Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological development are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. The authors outline a conceptual framework for risk-assessment studies which includes, in addition to the consideration of physical risks, the perception of risk situations and the resulting psychological and sociological levels of risk. The programme of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is presented in the Appendix and some preliminary results of this work are summarised.