基于R-Vine Copula的财险业务保险风险经济资本测量

经济资本管理是保险公司内部进行风险控制的有效方法.以某财险公司2005—2020年的五条业务线的赔付率作为保险风险的风险因子,用核密度方法刻画边缘分布,分别计量了业务线独立情景、多元Copula和Vine Copula模型下的VaR和TVaR,进而得到防范业务线非预期风险所需要持有的经济资本和相关的分散化收益,并从理论上对比了经济资本与"偿二代"最低资本的测算方法.结果表明:多维变量的建模中,Vine Copula很好地展示了Copula的风险聚合和收益分散效应,大大降低了财险公司为应对保险风险所需持有的财务资源,为财险公司在业务管理和风险管理方面提供了新的思路,同时为最低资本的测算方法从风险度量模型、风险因子选择、相依结构确定和相关系数的改进提供了一定的参考价值.     

保险公司风险管理研究——以财产保险为例

财产保险公司对资金的流动性要求很高,因此风险管理和掌控更加重要.本文研究保险公司风险管理的基本理论以及发展现状,并且引入风险度量方法,选取TailVaR方法进行详细的分析.本文还介绍了经济资本的概念以及配置,并利用TailVaR方法对于两家财产保险企业的经济资本进行计算,分析了两家公司的各业务线的风险管理能力.     

我国养老保险公司风险偏好传导机制研究——基于经济资本计量视角

2010年保监会出台了《人身保险公司全面风险管理实施指引》,明确要求在中国境内注册的养老保险公司参照执行。我国养老保险公司的主营业务是信托型企业年金业务和团体人身保险业务。如何结合自身的业务特点,建立覆盖业务条线的全面风险管理体系,是摆在各家养老保险公司的重要命题。本文采用全面风险管理（ERM）的方法论为框架,识别和评估养老保险公司经营管理过程中面临的主要风险,提出了我国养老保险公司基于经济资本计量建立风险偏好体系的建议,论述了养老保险公司经济资本计量与风险偏好体系的联动效应和作用机理。     

我国财险公司产品业务线经济资本配置的实证分析

考虑各条业务线之间的相关关系,通过构建经济资本配置模型并进行实证分析结果显示:各家财险公司各条业务线经济资本总和占总保费的比例平均为15%;各家公司各条产品业务线的RAROC之间的差异大,即各条业务线之间的风险收益状况差异大,应该对不同的险种采取不同的承保策略和再保险策略,以均衡各条业务线之间的RAROC指标.     

经济资本配置与商业银行价值管理

商业银行经济资本具有支持风险业务和创造价值两大功能。本文指出为了建立商业银行的价值管理体系也就是实现经济资本的优化配置，商业银行必须能够完成经济资本度量和配置这两种困难任务，且分别介绍了经济资本度量和配置方法.再列举了荷兰银行经济资本管理系统，最后阐述了对于我国商业银行改革和实践的启示。     

论商业银行经济资本的配置与管理

即将公布的巴塞尔新资本协议指出,资本作为银行抵卸风险的最终保证,应在所有业务敞口上得到合理配置;资本配置的基本原则是将资本要求与风险度量直接挂钩。该原则确立了经济资本配置在银行经营管理中的重要地位,也为我国商业银行风险管理模式的变革与创新指明了方向。一、经济资本的基本概念银行的资本对其风险控制具有     

基于Copula函数的保险公司经济资本配置研究

经济资本的度量及配置是风险管理的核心内容。本文利用Copula函数构建保险公司总体风险的联合分布函数,结合TCE方法来度量保险公司经济资本,并利用动态规划方法对经济资本最优配置模型求解。最后结合中国人民财产保险股份有限公司的数据进行实证。通过研究发现,我国财险公司内部偿付能力状况较好,但险种结构有待优化。     

我国产险公司最低资本标准探讨

以产险公司保障型业务的保险风险为研究对象,采用VaR作为风险度量技术对保险风险进行量化分析。对《保险法》下的产险公司偿付能力要求进行分析,给出了《保险法》下的产险公司最低资本标准。采用产险公司最新经验数据,对当前偿付能力监管规定的最低资本标准进行分析,确定如何选用保费指数和赔付指数计算最低资本,并对2011年度各公司的计算方式进行评析。基于我国产险公司最新经验数据,分析了当前偿付能力最低资本标准的合理性,并给出产险公司最低资本的新标准。     

商业银行个人住房抵押贷款违约风险损失度量研究

随着个人住房抵押贷款的快速发展,我国商业银行个人住房贷款业务所聚集的潜在风险正日益凸现.本文借鉴国内外最新研究成果,从防范风险、提高商业银行资金利用效率的角度,应用Credit metric风险度量模型对采集数据进行度量研究,重点测量了商业银行个人住房抵押贷款所面临的非预期损失,得到了各信用等级抵押贷款的风险价值以及商业银行该为此贷款提取的经济资本,并提出了建立更加科学合理的经济资本缓冲制度的对策建议.     

我国商业银行操作风险度量模型的选择

操作风险涉及银行经营活动的所有领域、各个环节和所有人员,不同银行、不同业务、不同环节的操作风险特征都不相同。操作风险度量是对操作风险进行经济资本配置的基础,目前还没有普遍适用的操作风险度量方法,现有的一些主流模型没有充分考虑内部控制对操作风险的影响和操作风险的因果性特征。因此,操作风险度量模型应考虑到其特征,既要综合主观和客观两方面的因素,也要可以灵活地进行动态调整。考虑到我国商业银行操作风险管理的实际,在操作风险度量模型的选择上,可用内部控制评价结果调整的基本指标法和标准法作为自上而下的度量模型,用贝叶斯网络技术作为自下而上的度量模型。     

Lessons from the Financial Crisis on Risk and Capital Management: The Case of Insurance Companies

This article proposes that risk management be viewed as an integral part of the corporate value‐creation process— one in which the concept of economic capital can provide companies with the financial cushion and confidence to carry out their strategic plans. Using the case of insurance and reinsurance companies, the authors discuss three main ways that the integration of risk and capital management creates value:

• 1 strengthening solvency (by limiting the probability of financial distress);
• 2 increasing prospects for profitable growth (by preserving access to capital during post‐loss periods); and
• 3 improving transparency (by increasing the “information content” or “signaling power” of reported earnings).

Insurers can manage solvency risk by using Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) models to limit the probability of financial distress to levels consistent with the firm's specified risk tolerance. While ERM models are effective in managing “known” risks, we discuss three practices widely used in the insurance industry to manage “unknown” and “unknowable” risks using the logic of real options—slack, mutualization, and incomplete contracts. Second, risk management can create value by securing sources of capital that, like contingent capital, can be used to fund profitable growth opportunities that tend to arise in periods following large losses. Finally, the authors argue that risk management can raise the confidence of investors in their estimates of future growth by removing the “noise” in earnings that comes from bearing non‐core risks, thereby making current earnings a more reliable guide to future earnings. In support of this possibility, the authors provide evidence showing that, for a given level of reported return on equity (ROE), (re)insurers with more stable ROEs have higher price‐to‐book ratios, suggesting investors' willingness to pay a premium for the stability provided by risk management.     

Optimal Risk Transfer: A Numerical Optimization Approach

Capital efficiency and asset/liability management are part of the Enterprise Risk Management Process of any insurance/reinsurance conglomerate and serve as quantitative methods to fulfill the strategic planning within an insurance organization. A considerable amount of work has been done in this ample research field, but invariably one of the last questions is whether or not, numerically, the method is practically implementable, which is our main interest. The numerical issues are dependent on the traits of the optimization problem, and therefore we plan to focus on the optimal reinsurance design, which has been a very dynamic topic in the last decade. The existing literature is focused on finding closed-form solutions that are usually possible when economic, solvency, and other constraints are not included in the model. Including these constraints, the optimal contract can be found only numerically. The efficiency of these methods is extremely good for some well-behaved convex problems, such as Second-Order Conic Problems. Specific numerical solutions are provided to better explain the advantages of appropriate numerical optimization methods chosen to solve various risk transfer problems. The stability issues are also investigated together with a case study performed for an insurance group that aims capital efficiency across the entire organization.     

Value-at-risk vs. building block regulation in banking

Existing regulatory capital requirements are often criticized for only being loosely linked to the economic risk of the banks' assets. In view of the attempts of international regulators to introduce more risk sensitive capital requirements, we theoretically examine the effect of specific regulatory capital requirements on the risk-taking behavior of banks. More precisely, we develop a continuous time framework where the banks' choice of asset risk is endogenously determined. We compare regulation based on the Basel I building block approach to value-at-risk or ‘internal model’-based capital requirements with respect to risk taking behavior, deposit insurance liability, and shareholder value. The main findings are: (i) value-at-risk-based capital regulation creates a stronger incentive to reduce asset risk when banks are solvent, (ii) solvent banks that reduce their asset risk reduce the current value of the deposit insurance liability significantly, (iii) under value-at-risk regulation the risk reduction behavior of banks is less sensitive to changes in their investment opportunity set, and (iv) banks' equityholders can benefit from risk-based capital requirements.     

Perspectives of Risk Sharing

In this paper we present an overview of the standard risk sharing model of insurance. We discuss and characterize a competitive equilibrium, Pareto optimality, and representative agent pricing, including its implications for insurance premiums. We only touch upon the existence problem of a competitive equilibrium, primarily by presenting several examples. Risk tolerance and aggregation is the subject of one section. Risk adjustment of the probability measure is one topic, as well as the insurance version of the capital asset pricing model. The competitive paradigm may be a little demanding in practice, so we alternatively present a game theoretic view of risk sharing, where solutions end up in the core. Properly interpreted, this may give rise to a range of prices of each risk, often visualized in practice by an ask price and a bid price. The nice aspect of this is that these price ranges can be explained by "first principles", not relying on transaction costs or other frictions. We also include a short discussion of moral hazard in risk sharing between an insurer and a prospective insurance buyer. We end the paper by indicating the implications of our results for a pure stock market. In particular we find it advantageous to discuss the concepts of incomplete markets in this general setting, where it is possible to use results for closed, convex subspaces of an L 2 -space to discuss optimal risk allocation problems in incomplete financial markets.     

金融风险综合评估方法最新研究进展

风险管理是金融机构的基本任务之一,如何有效地评估多种金融风险是风险管理者尤为关注的问题。当前金融风险综合评估方法主要采用由上至下法或由下至上法的理论框架。本文从金融风险综合评估方法所需解决的基本问题入手,详细阐述了金融风险计量方法中的主流模型及其研究现状,结合Copula理论介绍了风险综合评估方法的最新进展,并根据综合评估方法中存在的问题讨论了综合评估方法的前景及展望。     

Value Creation in the Insurance Industry

Using the insights of current research in corporate finance and financial institutions, the authors briefly present a consistent economic framework for looking at insurance. Shareholders of insurance companies provide risk capital that is invested in financial assets and therefore earns the market return of the assets it is invested in. However, due to the legal and fiscal environment insurance companies are in, they have a competitive disadvantage at investing, and this gives rise to frictional capital costs. The core competence of insurers is in managing the size of these frictional capital costs. Insurers must ensure that they can sell insurance for a price in excess of what they need to produce the cover they sell and compensate the incurred frictional costs on risk capital. It is through the ability to do so that insurers create shareholder value.     

Can a Coherent Risk Measure Be Too Subadditive?

We consider the problem of determining appropriate solvency capital requirements for an insurance company or a financial institution. We demonstrate that the subadditivity condition that is often imposed on solvency capital principles can lead to the undesirable situation where the shortfall risk increases by a merger. We propose to complement the subadditivity condition by a regulator's condition. We find that for an explicitly specified confidence level, the Value‐at‐Risk satisfies the regulator's condition and is the “most efficient” capital requirement in the sense that it minimizes some reasonable cost function. Within the class of concave distortion risk measures, of which the elements, in contrast to the Value‐at‐Risk, exhibit the subadditivity property, we find that, again for an explicitly specified confidence level, the Tail‐Value‐at‐Risk is the optimal capital requirement satisfying the regulator's condition.     

The importance of risk and insurance teaching within the ARIA mission

The American Risk and Insurance Association (ARIA) is a scholarly association devoted to the study of and promotion of risk and insurance economics and has a history of innovative scholarship in fields that are vital to economic development and resiliency throughout the world. Association members have an equally important mission and history of passing along important knowledge to students and the risk professions. The Risk and Insurance Teaching Society (RITS) was established as part of the pedagogical and academic program roles of ARIA. This paper outlines the importance of pedagogy within business higher education and more specifically within the academic discipline of risk and insurance and the increasing role that RITS plays in pedagogical innovation and idea sharing among risk and insurance academics.     

Application of Coherent Risk Measures to Capital Requirements in Insurance

Risk measurements go hand in hand with setting of capital minima by companies as well as by regulators. We review the properties of coherent risk measures and examine their implications for capital requirement in insurance. We also comment on the specific risk-based capital computations.