欧元区爆发危机的成因分析

本文从多个角度对欧元区危机爆发的原因进行了梳理,认为欧元区危机爆发的直接原因是在遭受2007年美国次贷危机对银行业冲击时,财政重组给政府财政带来巨大损失;深层次原因是欧元区深层次的结构性失衡和制度缺陷,欧元区内部国家发展不均衡。从财政的角度来看,欧元区不是财政联盟,不能通过转移支付,把财政状况良好的成员国向财政状况糟糕的成员国提供资金;从金融制度来看,欧元区缺少为问题银行提供无限资金的"最后贷款人"。     

全球滞胀型债务危机的风险——后疫情时代全球经济展望

后疫情时代,滞胀和债务危机风险并存,成为全球经济的重要挑战.本文发现,基准情形下,各国面临的滞胀压力和债务危机风险均有望缓解,但仍需警惕负向的供给冲击进一步持续、各国经济复苏分化加剧、主要经济体逆周期政策退出时点选择不当等风险事件.极端情形下,局部地区乃至更多国家或因上述风险事件陷入滞胀或爆发债务危机.中国应坚持"以我...     

不要被海妖的歌声所诱惑——金融家们需要自救

本次危机过后,风险的触角正蠢蠢欲动.银行家、监管家和学者们从自满中清醒过来,努力判别一下轮金融风暴究竟会从哪里触发.当前,暴风可能来自多个不同的方向.在运用了代价高昂的帮助金融系统渡过难关和支持恢复经济增长的救助措施之后,很多国家的财政状况急剧恶化.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下全球资本市场波动溢出风险及其连通网络研究

结合全球28个股市在2003—2021年的日度数据,采用基于广义方差分解的动态波动溢出指数方法来测度新冠肺炎疫情冲击下全球股市波动溢出风险及其连通网络的动态演化特征.在此基础上,基于面板中介效应模型来揭示疫情对股市波动风险的影响机制.研究结果表明:第一,全球重大危机事件(金融危机、疫情危机)冲击均会加剧各国股市的极端波动风险且危机发生国成为波动溢出的主要来源;第二,新冠肺炎疫情冲击加剧全球股市的总体溢出水平和网络连通性水平,使得大部分国家股市面临危机发生国股市的波动溢出风险;第三,新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,我国沪深股市自身波动风险不大,但面临海外国家股市波动溢出风险;第四,从全球来看,总体上存在着"疫情冲击→股市波动率(波动溢出风险)→股市尾部风险"的影响路径和中介效应.     

保险企业的危机管理

2003年的初春,SARS病毒突然侵袭神州大地,来势汹汹,疯狂蔓延. 如今,SARS疫情已得到有效控制,但给社会各行各业所造成的冲击却远远没有消除.人们庆幸终于经受住了疫情的考验之余,更多的是在思考如何从这场灾难中吸取教训,以便今后更好地应对类似的社会性危机.     

日本主权债务风险启示

<正>理论研究和国际经验验明,财政纪律的适当约束是金融稳定的前提条件,日常财政状况良好的国家对债务危机的应对能力更强。2008年美国发生了"次贷危机",暴露出金融体制利益的私人化,损失社会化,危及全球化的弊端。面对全球金融危机和世界经济衰退的挑战,各经济体皆     

谨防西方的货币洪水

自2008年9月雷曼兄弟倒闭以来，美国次贷危机导致的财政恶化和经济疲软一直不见改变的势头。欧洲主权债危机自2010年初爆发以来，更是一波未平，一波又起。目前世界经济依然笼罩在全球债务危机的阴影之下，世界经济学家对今后相当长时间内的发展趋势普遍持非常悲观的态度。西方国家政府尝试了各种各样的财政、货币政策，试图复苏经济，但收效甚微。西方国家的财政状况仍然在继续恶化。     

欧美债务危机对我国的影响和对策

以希腊主权债务危机为开端,席卷多个发达国家的债务危机爆发,给全球金融市场造成巨大冲击,也给刚刚从金融危机中复苏的全球经济蒙上一层阴影。这次危机的爆发不是偶然的,是这些国家多年糟糕财政状况积累的结果,也是评级机构推波助澜的结果。我国政府应正确认识这场危机对我国的影响,积极应对,寻找"危"中之"机",努力维持我国经济平稳和健康的发展趋势。     

当经济全球化遭遇疫情全球化

新冠肺炎疫情已被世界卫生组织从特征上称为“大流行”,这一评估凸显出全球疫情形势的严峻,给世界经济前景蒙上更为浓重的阴影。国际金融危机以来,经济全球化步伐本来就已放缓,此番受疫情影响,经济全球化的步履更加蹒跚。     

国际金融危机对我国海外并购的影响浅析

发端于美国的次贷危机迅速蔓延为全球性的金融危机，大量西方企业经营出现严重困难，财政状况恶化，许多企业被迫进行重组甚至中请破产保护。不少国家的国民经济出现重大挫折，发展前景举步维艰。在危机的影响下，出现困难的企业为走出困境，不得不出售资产、品牌等，甚至被迫转移整个企业，这给遭受危机较轻的中国企业从事海外并购提供了巨大的机遇，而现阶段海外并购也呈现出了新的特点。     

World equity markets and COVID-19: Immediate response and recovery prospects

Following the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, most global equity market indices experienced significant falls. Recognizing the severe economic impacts of the pandemic, starting from mid-March, many governments announced unprecedented economic rescue packages, which appear to restore investors’ confidence, given the recoveries recorded in most stock markets. However, the recovery performance significantly varies across countries. This paper provides an empirical analysis on what may explain this variation in the recovery performance observed in equity markets across countries. We find that among different types, fiscal stimulus supports seem to be strongly and positively associated with higher recovery that may justify more targeted fiscal supports for the real sector firms to restore investors’ confidence. We also find that the severity of the outbreak, reliance more on natural resource and tourism revenues are negatively associated with countries’ stock market recovery performance.     

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on transmission of monetary policy to financial markets

This study uses event-study methodology to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets, based on a sample of 37 countries with severe pandemics. Financial markets include government bond, stock, exchange rate and credit default swap markets. The results suggest that the emergence of pandemic has weakened the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets to a more significant degree. During our sample period following the outbreak of pandemic, neither conventional nor unconventional monetary policies have significant effects on all four of the financial markets. Of course, the unconventional monetary policies are slightly more effective as they can affect the stock and exchange rate markets to some extent. Therefore, in the post-pandemic period, if the monetary policy is used to stimulate financial markets, stronger policy adjustments, or other macro policies such as fiscal policies, may be needed to achieve the desired effect     

Banking sector reactions to COVID-19: The role of bank-specific factors and government policy responses

This paper examines the impact of bank-specific factors and variations in the context of stringency of government policy responses on bank stock returns because of the COVID-19 pandemic. A sample of 1,927 publicly listed banks from 110 countries is used for the period of the first major wave of COVID-19, that is, January to May 2020. Our findings indicate that stock returns of banks with higher capitalization and deposits, more diversification, lower non-performing loans, and larger size are more resilient to the pandemic. While banks’ environment and governance scores do not have a significant impact, higher social and corporate social responsibility strategy scores intensify the negative stock price reaction to COVID-19. We further observe that the pandemic-induced reduction in bank stock prices is mitigated as the strictness of government policy responses increases, mainly through economic responses such as income support, debt and contract relief, and fiscal measures from governments.     

Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Arrangements: Evidence from the Caribbean

This paper assesses the nature of fiscal discipline under alternative exchange rate regimes. First, it shows that fiscal agencies under a currency union with a fixed exchange rate can have a larger incentive to overspend or "free ride" than those under other exchange rate regimes, owing to the agencies' ability to spread the costs of overspending in inflation tax across both time, given the fixed exchange rate, and space, given the currency union. In contrast, such free-riding behavior does not arise under flexible regimes owing to the immediate inflationary impact of spending. Next, empirically, fiscal stances in countries with fixed pegs and currency union regimes demonstrate greater free-riding behavior than do countries with more flexible regimes in fifteen Caribbean countries from 1983 to 2004.     

典型创新型国家自主创新激励的财税政策

本文选取了美国、法国、日本、澳大利亚、韩国、新加坡和印度等当代具有代表性的创新型国家,对其自主创新激励政策从财政、税收两个视角分别做了总结和比较,通过分析发现,政府的主导作用、企业的主体作用、人的能动性和对创新过程的尊重是其设计财税激励政策的共同特点。因此,我国自主创新财税激励政策也可参考国外经验,结合我国国情做上述四个方面的改进。     

Fiscal decentralization and macroeconomic management

The purpose of this paper is to address a central question in fiscal federalism - whether or not fiscal decentralization implies serious risks for fiscal discipline and macroeconomic management for the nation as a whole. This paper addresses this important issue by drawing upon the existing evidence regarding macro management and fiscal institutions in federal and unitary countries. This is supplemented by cross country regression analysis plus the analysis of two case studies: the Brazilian federation and the unitary regime in China. The main conclusion of the paper is that decentralized fiscal systems offer a greater potential for improved macroeconomic governance than centralized fiscal regimes. This is because the challenges posed by fiscal decentralization are recognized and they shape the design of countervailing institutions in federal countries to overcome adverse incentives associated with incomplete contracts or the “common property” resource management problems or with rent seeking behaviors. JEL Code E6 · H7 · H1     

A shot in the arm: Economic support packages and firm performance during COVID-19

We use firm-level data to provide some early evidence on the effectiveness of COVID-19 economic policy packages. Our empirical strategy relies on the varying degree of vulnerability to the pandemic across industries. We find a robust association of fiscal support with changes in firm performance indicators (as measured by sales-to-assets ratio, profit margin, interest coverage ratio as well as probability of default) in pandemic-prone sectors. We also observe marginal effects of monetary policy on the sales-to-assets ratio and of foreign exchange intervention on the interest coverage ratio in the hardest-hit firms. These results broadly survive a battery of exercises to address endogeneity. Additionally, we show that firms with a better financial position are more likely to take advantage of the support packages to withstand the pandemic shock. Overall, this preliminary evidence suggests that policy interventions have bought time for the hardest-hit industries, by supporting turnover and improving liquidity.     

Let's lessen conditionality in times of force majeure events. The archaic righteousness of the policy of conditionality of international Institutions amid COVID-19

This article investigates how international decision-making's conditionality aids countries during strenuous economic conditions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines and contrasts the European Union's conditionality policies, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank as the more influential and leading groups of institutions. The article reveals notable policy differences. As opposed to that of the IMF and WB, the EU's approach is more comprehensive and not confined to economic considerations. Those variations aside, the article draws on the same premise: expectations of compliance with the set conditions. While in-depth, structural requirements could guide ordinary decision-making and build up resilient national institutions and policies, this article questions the merits of large-scale comprehensive terms in the face of a situation created by a force majeure or a humanly uncontrollable event such as the COVID-19 pandemic. With no more initial research addressing the specific question of the application and adequacy of conditionality to force majeure emergencies or pandemic situations of the scale of COVID-19, this article argues in favor of a measured and targeted response limited to the development, design, or determination of policy choices that tackle the intended purpose. Also, for validly practical considerations that search for to ensure the better use of aid and avoid distracting or overburdening the recipient countries to the point of risking losses of devastating proportions, the article proposes to revise and limit conditionality during force majeure events to the essential aspects of transparent management of funds for the sole intended purpose. This in itself is a distinct democratic exercise of efficient and accountable public management decision-making.     

国外促进就业的财政政策及借鉴

面对日益严峻的就业形势，世界各国十分重视发挥财政在促进就业中的作用。本文着重通过考察世界各国在促进就业方面所采取的财政政策， 探讨我国财政应如何在促进就业工作中更好地发挥作用。     

Cross‐Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many OECD countries adopted fiscal consolidation strategies to reduce their debt‐to‐GDP ratios. This paper investigates the effects of fiscal consolidation on trading partners’ growth through trade linkages. Using a measure of exogenous fiscal shocks in export markets, fiscal consolidation spillovers are found to slow down domestic growth and decrease employment. To the extent that fiscal consolidations are synchronised, fiscal policies have large spillover effects on output. Spillovers of fiscal consolidations on growth are found to be initially larger between countries belonging to currency unions, though this larger impact vanishes over the medium term. Larger spillovers of fiscal consolidation coincide with lower bilateral exports, higher bilateral imports and relative increases in unit labour costs in currency unions. Spillovers of fiscal consolidation are also found to be more detrimental to domestic growth during economic downturns in export markets.