金融稳定评估和压力测试的国际比较与经验借鉴

压力测试作为一种度量极端风险的风险管理手段,在新资本协议中占据重要的地位.而在本论全球性金融危机期间,美联储将其提升到了一个全新的高度.     

Why European Banks Are Undercapitalized and What Should Be Done About It

Major European banks are significantly undercapitalized as compared to large American banks, and, more importantly, as compared to the capital levels they would need to survive another severe financial crisis. Bank capital shortfalls in Italy, Spain, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, in particular, are largely the consequence of European bank regulations that: (1) apply static risk weights to assets like mortgages and sovereign debt; (2) fail to require an overall market‐based capital ratio that is high enough to enable banks to survive a severe financial crisis; (3) fail to get banks to promptly write down their impaired assets to market value; (4) subject banks to weak stress tests that can create a false impression of capital adequacy; and (5) fail to compel banks to retain sufficient earnings and to raise sufficient capital externally to eliminate capital shortfalls promptly, all apparently out of fear that being tougher might cause investors and customers to lose confidence in the banks. This article summarizes important recent independent bank stress testing that has quantified the capital shortfalls in European banks. The recent highly publicized regulatory interventions to resolve failing European banks were inevitable due to these shortfalls. The authors recommend steps European bank regulators should take to address the problem and to eliminate the risk of serious capital shortfalls. In the absence of such steps, bank depositors, customers, and security holders should be prepared to expect further unwelcome surprises as the risks inherent in allowing undercapitalized banks to operate will continue to materialize in more bank failures.     

Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk: A practical approach for policy makers

Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materializing credit risk. The authors apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results.     

《银行资本充足率监管征求意见稿》的影响研究

2011年5月,银监会下发了融合《巴塞尔协议II》及《巴塞尔协议III》内关于资本计量、管理等内容的《银行资本充足率监管征求意见稿》,这标志着金融危机后我国的新监管标准即将落地。该监管新规将使国有五大行资本充足率下降。五大行可以从补充资本、降低加权风险资产、增强资本管理能力等方面应对监管新规。     

商业银行市场风险压力测试研究

2007年起始的全球金融危机暴露了银行业对压力时期的市场风险预测失灵。危机后,西方国家通过压力测试来评估银行的资本充足状况。这一举措起到了恢复市场信心的作用。因为影响市场的风险因素众多,所以市场风险压力测试有别于其他风险类别的压力测试。虽然市场风险压力测试在学术领域、监管层面和实际应用中都得到了一定程度的研究与发展,然而当前压力测试方法还存在诸多不足,如不能提供压力情景可能性分析、无法涵盖模型外风险因素的测度、受限于产品定价模型的假设等。因此,在未来发展中应更加关注压力测试结果在银行的运用,及充分考虑尚未被普遍纳入压力情景的隐性风险因素。     

Are regulatory capital adequacy ratios good indicators of bank failure? Evidence from US banks

Motivated by massive bank failures during the financial crisis, this paper examines whether capital adequacy ratios required by regulators are associated with bank failure. It investigates whether the association is affected by the bank's proximity to the minimum required capital ratios. If results show a significant association between regulatory capital and failure of banks falling below the minimum capital ratios, then the ratios are set at an adequate level. Examining a sample of 560 US bank holding companies for the period 2003–2009, results reveal that the association between the core (Tier 1) capital ratio and bank failure becomes significant only if the bank holding company has a Tier 1 capital ratio of less than 6%. This is the level below which US bank regulators do not regard banks as being well capitalized. During the financial crisis period of 2007–2009, there is a significant association only when the criterion is set at or above 8%. Market-based probability of default is more significantly associated with failure relative to Tier 1 capital ratio. The findings of this paper are relevant to regulatory policy discussions and Basel III deliberations on capital adequacy at times of financial turmoil.     

What drives investment bank performance? The role of risk,liquidity and fees prior to and during the crisis

This paper examines factors that affect the performance of investment banks in the G7 and Switzerland. In particular, we focus on the role of risk, liquidity and investment banking fees. Panel analysis shows that those variables significantly impact upon performance as derived from Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). Given our sample also comprises the financial crisis, we further test for regime switches using dynamic panel threshold analysis. Results show different underlying regimes, in particular over the financial crisis. In addition, a strong positive effect of Z-Score on performance for banks in the regime of low default risk is reported, while fee-income ratio has also a positive impact for banks with low level of fees. On the other hand, liquidity exerts a negative impact. Notably, there is a clear trend of mobility of banks across the two identified threshold regimes with regard to risk a year before the financial crisis. Our results provide evidence that recent regulation reforms regarding capital adequacy and liquidity requirements are on the right track and could enhance performance.     

准备金率和资本充足率影响商业银行贷款规模的机制分析

货币银行传统理论认为:货币当局以准备金率控制贷款规模,以资本充足率控制贷款风险。本文从分析准备金与资本充足率对贷款规模的约束机制入手,引入银行资产负债表模型,证明银行贷款规模主要受资本充足率影响。研究结论是:准备金率对贷款规模的控制作用已经弱化,资本充足率对贷款规模的控制作用趋强。     

Capital adequacy rules, catastrophic firm failure, and systemic risk

This paper studies capital adequacy rules based on Value-at-Risk (VaR), leverage ratios, and stress testing. VaR is the basis of Basel II, and all three approaches are proposed in Basel III. This paper makes three contributions to the literature. First, we prove that these three rules provide an incentive to increase the probability of catastrophic financial institution failure. Collectively, these rules provide an incentive to increase (not decrease) systemic risk. Second, we argue that an unintended consequence of the Basel II VaR capital adequacy rules was the 2007 credit crisis. Third, we argue that to reduce systemic risk, a new capital adequacy rule is needed. One that is based on a risk measure related to the conditional expected loss given insolvency.     

Banking Market Size Structure and Financial Stability: Evidence from Eight Asian Countries

Using commercial bank data from eight major Asian countries, we examine the relationship between the banking market size structure and the stability of financial institutions. We also analyze the effect of bank upsizing on the financial stability. Our results show that a rise in large banks’ market power, accompanying an increase in their market shares, lowers the capital adequacy of small banks. Small banks’ nonperforming loans and the possibility of their bankruptcy also increase as large banks’ market shares rise. We further show that larger banks tend to have lower capital adequacy ratios, liquidity ratios, and distance-to-default ratios. Our study suggests that large banks’ greater market shares are associated with small banks’ financial instability. Overall, these findings are consistent with the notion of the recent banking literature that has important antitrust policy implications.     

Dividends and financial health: Evidence from U.S. bank holding companies

Using a large sample of U.S. bank holding companies from 1986 to 2020, we show that there is a positive relationship between banks' dividends lagged by one quarter and their financial health in the current quarter. We also find that this positive relationship is more pronounced for banks with lower capital adequacy and during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, indicating that it is more necessary for banks with these characteristics to use dividends to convey information regarding their financial health. Our additional analyses suggest that total payout is also positively associated with bank financial health, and that the positive relationship between dividends and financial health applies to private banks as well, but that the magnitude is weaker for them than for public banks. Our overall findings primarily complement a risk reduction hypothesis in corporate finance and bank payout policies.     

次贷危机对新资本协议实施的影响

本文以风险管理为切入点,讨论次贷危机与新资本协议之间的关系,试图回答业界对新资本协议制度合理性的某些质疑。与1988年资本协议相比,新资本协议建立了更具灵活性、适应性和前瞻性的资本监管制度,赋予资本充足率更加丰富的风险管理内涵,为商业银行改进风险管理提供了正向激励;次贷危机不仅未否认新资本协议的合理性,反而进一步凸现了全面实施新资本协议的重要性;新资本协议应顺应金融创新的趋势,吸取次贷危机的教训,做出适应性调整;虽然实施新资本协议不可能阻止金融危机再度发生,但可以提升银行体系应对外部冲击的能力,至少可以缓解未来金融危机的破坏力,从而提高社会福利。     

Banks’ capital buffer,risk and performance in the Canadian banking system: Impact of business cycles and regulatory changes

Using quarterly financial statements and stock market data from 1982 to 2010 for the six largest Canadian chartered banks, this paper documents positive co-movement between Canadian banks’ capital buffer and business cycles. The adoption of Basel Accords and the balance sheet leverage cap imposed by Canadian banking regulations did not change this cyclical behavior of Canadian bank capital. We find Canadian banks to be well-capitalized and that they hold a larger capital buffer in expansion than in recession, which may explain how they weathered the recent subprime financial crisis so well. This evidence that Canadian banks ride the business and regulatory periods underscores the appropriateness of a both micro- and a macro-prudential “through-the-cycle” approach to capital adequacy as advocated in the proposed Basel III framework to strengthen the resilience of the banking sector.     

Replenishing the Banking Sector: Managing Bank Capital in the Post-Crisis World*

In the wake of the current financial crisis, there is a renewed focus on capital adequacy in the banking sector. A combination of impending regulatory changes, evolving views on both the level and composition of capital, the need to manage capital to stress-case scenarios, and the valuation implications of pro-cyclical versus counter-cyclical strategies will require banks to rethink their capital strategy in the postcrisis world. In this report, the authors (1) attempt to quantify the potential impact of further stresses on bank balance sheets and assess the magnitude of capital requirements for U.S. banks; (2) shed light on bank valuation dynamics; and (3) provide an analytical and empirical framework for measuring optimal equity capital buffers.     

我国商业银行前瞻性资本结构模型构建与实证研究

资本结构研究对以建立现代金融企业为目标的中国银行业十分重要。本文通过深入分析资本充足率、核心资本充足率、股权回报率和平均融资成本之间的关系,提出我国商业银行在转轨时期的前瞻性资本结构模型,并以我国四大国有商业银行为例进行实证分析,进而得到资本结构管理的指标矩阵。这有利于合理确定银行的资本结构,满足投资者的股权回报要求,降低融资成本。国内其他类型的商业银行也可以通过改变参数的方式,以前瞻性资本结构模型建立适应各自规模和定位的估计区间。     

The Impact of Owner’s Identity on Banks’ Capital Adequacy and Liquidity Risk

In this article, we test the potential impact of the owner’s identity on banks’ capital adequacy and liquidity risk as defined by the Basel III regulatory framework. Using a unique dataset on a sample of banks domiciled in the Middle East and North Africa region, we find that the ownership structure is an important driver of banks’ regulatory capital and liquidity risk. Private and foreign investors exhibit a stronger preference for higher levels of capital, whereas the impact of government ownership on banks’ risk remains inconclusive. Moreover, privately-owned banks evidenced lower levels of liquidity risk compared to the other groups during the last financial crisis because of tighter budget constraints and more compelling liquidity needs.     

央行资本盒与货币政策的有效性

2007年次贷危机后,各国央行都承担起“最后贷款人”的职责,救助金融机构,央行自身资产负债表的质量不断恶化,引发对中央银行资本金的关注。央行在履行维持物价稳定和一些“准财政”职能时,资本金可能遭受损失,资本金的损失会影响到央行的公信力和独立性,以及货币政策的有效性。充足的央行资本金对于货币政策的有效执行来说是一种有力的保障。     

THE ROLE OF LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS IN EARNINGS MANAGEMENT,CAPITAL MANAGEMENT,AND SIGNALING: THE SPANISH EXPERIENCE

While much research has been conducted in the United States on the use of loan loss provisions (LLPs) as a mechanism for managing earnings, managing capital, and as a tool for signaling future earnings strategies, there is a paucity of research in Europe. In this research, we replicate methodology used by Ahmed, Takeda and Thomas (1998) and examine the relative importance of key factors affecting the LLP decisions of Spanish depository institutions. Among others, we focus on the role of organizational structure. We specifically examine if and how LLPs are used prior to and after the implementation of capital adequacy regulations in the Spanish depository industry in 1992. Our results indicate that while LLPs were not used as a tool for managing capital after the new regulation came into effect, banks have now adopted a more aggressive earnings management strategy. This appears to be because the capital adequacy regulation of 1992 removed any capital constraint that hitherto acted as a disincentive to aggressive earnings management. Commercial banks appeared to adopt a more aggressive earnings management as well as capital management strategy than savings banks in the post regulatory era. Finally, we did not find evidence that LLPs were used as a signaling tool by Spanish banks to portray their intentions about future earnings.     

First-move advantage in seasoned equity offerings: Evidence from European banks

The financial crisis that started in 2008 has generated significant losses for European banks, forcing them to undertake a series of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) to reinforce their balance sheets in order to comply with regulatory capital requirements. As a result, they have produced repeated SEO waves in a relatively short time frame, when capital supply was limited due to the economic and financial context. We investigate the conditions at which European banks have been able to raise new equity capital by means of rights issues during the global financial crisis, demonstrating the existence of a first-move advantage: within a SEO wave, banks that acted first were able to complete the capital increase at more favorable conditions than their peers that acted later. We also show that first-movers experienced higher valuation ratios at the final cum-rights date compared to late-comers. As a result, first-movers obtained a double advantage: they could offer a lower discount on a price that embedded an higher valuation ratio.