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René M. Stulz 《European Financial Management》2023,29(5):1377-1400
We assess the state of knowledge about crisis risk and its implications for risk management. Data that became available after the global financial crisis show that some types of crises are predictable when accounting for interactions between risks. However, other types of crises do not seem predictable. There is no evidence that the frequency of economic and financial crises is increasing. While data show that an economic crisis is more likely following a political crisis, there is no comparable evidence for climate events. Strategies that increase firm operational and financial flexibility reduce the adverse impact of crises on firms. 相似文献
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This study models the risks of commercial banks from the United States and developed, emerging, and frontier countries while controlling for bank- and country-specific variables within a panel framework. Bank risk is measured by both the traditional Z-score and a composite bank risk index proposed by the authors. The findings suggest that even though the riskiness of all banks from different country groups increased following the financial crisis, the magnitude of the change is not the same across groups. During the post-crisis period, banks in developed, emerging, and frontier countries experienced a smaller increase in their risk compared to their counterparts in the United States. This article provides support for the claim that banks in emerging and frontier countries have experienced the effects of the financial crisis to a lesser extent compared to those in the United States. 相似文献
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商业银行是我国金融系统中的重要组成部分,为地区的经济建设做出了很大的贡献,但是商业银行的发展也受到了种种因素的制约,尤其是在金融市场领域,风险巨大,管理起来问题较多。本文对这些风险所产生的原因进行了简要总结,并提出了一些促进商业银行金融市场业务开展的办法,希望能为相关单位提供参考。 相似文献
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从本次金融危机对国际金融监管体系提出的新挑战出发,本文探讨了金融国际化与金融监管体系改革的关系,以及金融危机对金融监管体系改革的影响。未来,金融监管将日趋国际化,更加注重风险性监管和对创新业务的监管,重视金融机构的内部控制制度和同业自律机制,而统一监管将成为监管体系发展的趋势。在此基础上,本文提出中国金融监管体系改革应走综合监管、统一监管之路,以适应混业经营发展和金融创新的需要;要加强宏观金融审慎监管,保证整个金融系统的稳定;注重保护投资者的合法权益;并不断完善与金融监管体系改革相配套的其他制度与措施。 相似文献
5.
Philippe Jorion 《European Financial Management》2009,15(5):923-933
Risk management, even if flawlessly executed, does not guarantee that big losses will not occur. Big losses can occur because of business decisions and bad luck. Even so, the events of 2007 and 2008 have highlighted serious deficiencies in risk models. For some firms, risk models failed because of known unknowns. These include model risk, liquidity risk, and counterparty risk. In 2008, risk models largely failed due to unknown unknowns, which include regulatory and structural changes in capital markets. Risk management systems need to be improved and place a greater emphasis on stress tests and scenario analysis. In practice, this can only be based on position-based risk measures that are the basis for modern risk measurement architecture. Overall, this crisis has reinforced the importance of risk management. 相似文献
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美国次贷危机对国内银行经营管理的启示 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
该文剖析了美国次贷危机的发生及其影响.并深入分析了美国次贷危机对国内银行经营管理的启示,认为国内的银行必须关注绩效激励的逆向选择、不要懈怠贷前尽职调查、不要过分依赖第二还款来源、营销手段应适度以及不应过渡迷信风险转移等。 相似文献
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从美国次贷危机看金融创新的风险管理 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
该文指出美国次贷危机的根源是对金融创新的风险管理不到位,文章分析了金融创新的特征以及市场参与者对金融创新的风险意识淡薄的现状,指出美国次贷危机的教训在于金融机构应充分重视金融创新中的风险管理,而监管机构对金融创新的风险监管则是业务发展和市场稳定的有力保障;最后文章对如何加强我国金融创新的风险管理提出相关的意见和建议。 相似文献
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金融危机背景下中国金融衍生品市场的发展 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本轮金融危机被冠以衍生品泛滥之名,使得国内对发不发展和如何发展我国金融衍生品市场产生纷争。本文通过分析指出本次危机是系统性危机,金融衍生品是其复杂传导链条中的一个环节,不应担当危机爆发的主要责任。通过中美金融衍生品市场的比较,发现我国金融衍生品市场仍处于初级阶段,与差距逐渐缩小的中美债券市场规模、中美经济总量规模相比,中国金融衍生品市场发展缓慢,市场发展空间巨大。最后指出我们应该深化基础市场建设,逐步建立多层次的金融衍生产品市场结构,并建议商业银行培育自身金融衍生产品的核心竞争力,提升风险管理水平。 相似文献
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金融市场流动性的逆转以及金融机构所具有的高杠杆率、高关联度特征,共同催生了新的系统性金融风险隐患,使得现代金融体系的风险产生和传递完全呈现出新的特征。监管当局需要研究现代金融体系中更为广泛的、复杂的系统性风险的触发点,加强对金融市场中系统性风险的认识和防范,协调宏观审慎管理和微观审慎管理,加强货币政策的金融稳定职能。 相似文献
11.
冰岛金融危机的起因、教训与启示 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
在全球金融危机的冲击下,冰岛成为第一个陷入困境而向IMF求助的发达国家。该文分析了冰岛金融危机的起因及教训,认为冰岛危机是自身经济发展失衡、金融过度膨胀且存在结构缺陷的后果;政府的金融监管与危机应对措施也负有重大责任。对其他国家都有着重要的警示意义。 相似文献
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本轮席卷全球的金融危机过后,各国对引起危机的原因都进行了反思,普遍认为缺乏有效的监管是金融危机的重要原因之一。本文从金融监管的理论出发,对美英等国的金融监管体系改革进程进行了研究,分析了中国目前的金融监管体系的优缺点,进而提出中国金融监管体系改革的目标和途径。中国金融监管体系改革的目标是建立一个统一、高效的监管体系。改革可分步实施,首先在一行三会之上建立国家金融监管委员会以加强金融监管机构的协调;中期目标则是三会进一步整合,取消三会的独立地位,并将三会相同的职能部门合并;远期则是按照目标导向监管原则,重构中国的金融监管体系。 相似文献
13.
This paper examines how the soundness of financial institutions affected bank lending to new firms during the 2008 financial crisis by using a unique firm–bank match‐level dataset of 1,467 unlisted small and medium‐sized enterprises incorporated in Japan. We employ a within‐firm estimator that can control for unobserved firms’ demand for credit through firm ? time fixed effects. The major findings of this paper are the following four points. First, sounder financial institutions may be generally less likely to provide financing to new firms. Second, our results suggest that sounder financial institutions were less likely to provide loans to new firms during the 2008 financial crisis. Third, financial institutions were less likely to provide financing to new firms during such crisis as compared to those with the same soundness during non‐crisis periods. Finally, such lending relationships to new firms that are established during the financial crisis by sounder financial institutions are more likely to be continued than such lending by less sound financial institutions. 相似文献
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全球金融监管的托宾税视角 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
金融全球化进程中,加强金融监管必不可少,其中托宾税就是理论和实践关注的热点之一。托宾税是对全球货币交易征税,其目标是追求市场稳定、效率及保持各国货币政策的独立性。它是引领国际金融走向公平、公正与民主的路径,其巨大的税收收入可用以解除世界贫困。两级托宾税制能有效控制资本的过度流动,并具有可操作性。托宾税思想超越了传统经济学理论,如果国际社会能就具体问题早日达成共识,必将开创国际金融监管的新格局。 相似文献
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金融危机启示:金融一体化监管趋势下的保险监管 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
任何一次危机的爆发都是风险释放的过程,研究危机更重要的是关注风险的积累过程。因此,分析危机前的风险积累过程,查找危机产生的原因,对防范和化解危机具有现实意义。本文通过对新近发生的美国次贷危机进而延伸到对10年前亚洲金融危机分析,以及全球金融一体化监管最新演进趋势的借鉴,论述我国保险监管组织架构的未来展望。 相似文献
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金融稳定是一个具有全局性、综合性的概念。维护金融稳定,需要行政手段、经济手段和法律手段的综合运用。因此金融稳定需要政府、政府宏观经济管理部门、中央银行、财政部门及各金融监管部门采取不同的政策措施来影响金融机构、金融市场和经济运行才能实现。所以,虽然《人民银行法》将金融稳定的职责赋予人民银行,但是人民银行的法定职权并不足以使其承担起维护金融稳定的责任。 相似文献
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金融危机中美国金融机构遭受重创的自身原因是,公司治理失效及过度的激励机制,缺乏严格的内部风险管理机制,规模快速扩张带来整合和管理的巨大难题。同时,美国计划改革其金融监管体制,发布了《现代化金融监管体制蓝图》和《金融改革框架》。欧美金融机构的转型,尤其是花旗分拆不意味着综合经营模式的失败;基于金融深化发展和适应全球金融竞争的考虑,我国商业银行应当坚持综合经营和金融创新,金融监管的变革方向应是对金融创新带来的风险实施更加有效的监管。 相似文献
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We investigate the explanatory power of decision, psychometric, and trust theory to describe laypeople’s risk perception of personal economic collapse in a bank crisis. The aim of this investigation is to improve the understanding of the effects of national initiatives for crisis fighting taken to prevent systemic risk. Using a stratified sample of 738 Cypriote citizens, we conducted an investigation in Cyprus in the spring of 2013 when the country was facing a bank crisis. At that point in time, the Cypriote Government had imposed capital controls to prevent a bank run. We find that decision theory variables alone have low explanatory value on laypeople’s risk perception, and that laypeople’s risk perception in this situation is affected primarily by psychometric variables. Further, confidence in one’s own bank also explains risk perception. Our findings contribute novel knowledge about risk perceptions in a financial crisis, with practical crisis management implications for regulators. 相似文献