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1.
民间借贷风险的发生会给社会经济发展带来负面影响,必须加以有效引导与规范.本文从利率双轨制的视角分析了温州民间借贷资金的分布及存在逻辑,揭示了温州民间借贷危机形成的内在机理,并以此为依据,设计了温州民间借贷危机的治理路径.本文认为,利率双轨制是温州民间借贷危机形成的制度性动因,而信贷配给引发最优贷款利率的存在,使得正规金融市场资金供需失衡,在利率双轨制引发的赚钱效应驱动下,加大了温州民间借贷危机形成的风险集聚效应.本文建议,应从宏观和微观层面寻求解决非正规金融发展问题的路径.  相似文献   

2.
不同货币政策影响下民间借贷发展的比较分析   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
本文主要基于温州民间借贷利率监测的样本数据,着重分析货币政策由从紧到适度宽松的背景下温州民间借贷总量结构变动特征,探讨变动的诱致机理,并就如何进一步规范引导好民间借贷提出相应的政策建议。  相似文献   

3.
民间金融制度变迁与经济绩效   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文从民间借贷利率的角度考察温州三次金融改革的制度变迁,分析温州民间金融制度变迁与当地民间金融组织演化、利率市场化改革和中小企业成长的关系。研究表明:民间借贷利率同银行机构基准利率走向一致,与货币政策息息相关;民间借贷利率推动利率市场化改革,消除民间利率的市场非理性有利于民间融资市场充分发挥其作为次级金融制度安排的作用。对1978~2012年温州民间金融制度变量的测度,结果显示,民间金融制度变迁每变动1%,经济增量增加5.497%,表明温州民间金融的制度变迁对当地经济增长具有促进作用。  相似文献   

4.
本文分析了2003年~2011年温州民间借贷利率的变化及相关影响因素,主要发现如下:(1)温州的民间借贷市场不是传统的民间借贷市场;(2)民间借贷规模既受到当地实体经济影响,又受货币政策和资产价格约束;(3)温州民间借贷的利率受货币政策工具、资产价格的影响显著;(4)民间借贷短期看是银行存款的替代品,长期看是银行贷款的补充。解决温州民间借贷中存在的问题,地方政府应当从实体经济入手,创造良好环境,促进产业升级,同时向民营资金开放部分原来垄断的行业,真正落实新旧36条,为民营资本提供更多的投资渠道。同时,鉴于实体经济所能承受利率有限,除了传统意义上的民间借贷外,非正规金融机构利率相对过高,无法服务实体经济发展。只有建立真正意义的民营银行,才能更有效地服务中小企业。  相似文献   

5.
利率水平的确定是民间借贷市场的核心问题,面对高企利率,借助何种力量使得借贷双方能够继续进行交易是民间借贷市场的关键问题.本文以鄂尔多斯民间借贷为考察对象,深入分析民间借贷利率定价因素,指出资金供求矛盾、利率管制、市场分割及高风险是造成鄂尔多斯民间借贷利率高企的主要原因;信誉机制、信任机制、抵押担保机制及惩罚机制是民间借贷运行的社会机制,最后提出规范和引导民间借贷健康发展的措施.  相似文献   

6.
2012年温州市建立温州民间借贷登记服务中心,用以规范温州地区民间借贷活动。登记服务中心作为温州金改的产物,发展至今以初具成效。而民间借贷利率作为民间借贷活动及其重要的一部分,其定价的合理性直接关系到民间借贷市场发展的稳定性。为了对温州民间借贷登记服务中心对民间借贷利率定价合理化引导效果进行客观全面的评价,本文从民间借贷利率特征出发,构建了一套综合评价体系,并通过问卷调查和实地走访获得信息,对温州融资中心的运行情况进行客观的评价。  相似文献   

7.
为加强对民间借贷利率的监测,及时掌握辖区民间借贷利率水平及趋势,了解各县资金余缺。根据年初分行长会议精神及央行相关法律,人行黄南中支建立了辖区民间借贷监测点,开始适时监测辖区内民间借贷的资金流向、流量、规模和利率变化等情况。  相似文献   

8.
民间借贷作为正规金融的有益补充,是中国经济发展转型中一种重要的资金力量。但是,2011年爆发的温州民间借贷危机和温州"跑路事件"引发人们对民间借贷危机的担忧。民间借贷作为一把双刃剑,在有助于企业发展的同时,因缺乏有效的监管而蕴含着巨大的风险。为规范和引导民间借贷,我国在继续推动利率市场化改革的前提下,应该建立"双向多头"式的地方政府监管机构,加强金融监管,成立民间借贷登记服务机构等,严格从民间资金的来源和去向两个环节把关,落实相关法律法规和金融政策,促进民间借贷行为规范化。  相似文献   

9.
本文在掌握2006-2011近6年的温州市房价和温州民间借贷资金用途及其利率基础上,首先通过数据间的联系和传统经济学理论说明两者的联系;其次运用格兰杰因果分析和VAR模型对两者关系进行定量分析。结论表明:温州市房价对民间借贷利率有长期显著的影响,其领先于民间借贷利率走势6-12个月的时间,且在房价受到外部条件的正冲击后,房价波动会对民间利率造成持续、正面的影响。  相似文献   

10.
欧阳 《中国金融家》2011,(11):75-77
作为中国经济的先行者,温州在所有人眼中有着特殊的意义。近一个月以来,在政府、银行、企业的共同努力下,温州民间借贷风波已逐渐平息,中小企业融资难得到一定缓解,民间金融改革试点也正在起草修定中……然而,风平浪静之后,这场债务风波给我们留下更多的是反思:民间借贷风潮是否真正得到控制?危机下的民间金融将期待怎样的变革?利率市场化的推进能否从根源上破解高利贷之困?本期《新闻背后》将围绕这些问题进行深入报道。近期,央行对民间借贷合法性的表态,再一次引起了各界的关注。央行相关负责人表示,民间借贷是正规金融有效和必要的补充,具有制度层面合法性。并强调,其利率最高不得超过银行同类利率的4倍。下一步将致力于推动完善相关法律法规,引导民间资本规范从事资金借贷活动,鼓励民间借贷规范化,阳光化运作,发展多层次信贷市场,满足社会多元化融资需求。显然,未来我国民间金融市场将获得更多的关注与呵护,同时,金融体系的改革也是必经之路。  相似文献   

11.

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.  相似文献   

12.

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.  相似文献   

13.
The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.  相似文献   

14.
After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.  相似文献   

15.
This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.  相似文献   

16.
Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.  相似文献   

17.
正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original  相似文献   

18.

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.  相似文献   

19.
China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...  相似文献   

20.
The trading station or factory maintained by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was Japan's sole window on the Western world during most of the Tokugawa period (1600-1868). While many aspects of the factory's role in Dutch/Japanese cultural exchange have been researched little is known in the West of the accounting at the factory. This paper considers the possibility that double-entry bookkeeping employed by the Dutch may have been diffused to the Japanese. The available evidence is synthesized after considering the accounting system in the Dutch factory.  相似文献   

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