个人住房贷款违约风险的成因及其控制

近几年来,我国商业银行以个人住房贷款为龙头的消费信贷业务取得了前所未有的迅猛发展,有效地刺激了住房消费,推动了住宅业的发展,同时也为商业银行创造了巨大的经济效益.但是我们也应清醒地看到,在个人住房贷款不断发展的同时,其风险隐患日益显现,假供楼、假合同屡禁不止,违规发放贷款,随意降低贷款条件,个人住房贷款不良率逐步上升,造成个人住房贷款业务的虚假繁荣,给商业银行带来的风险损失不断增大.因此,商业银行在减少贷款审批程序,方便客户的同时,有效地防范风险,提高效益问题就成为当务之急.个人住房贷款的风险一方面是银行本身因违规经营造成的风险,即主动风险;另一个主要方面,就是贷款人的违约风险,多因贷款人违反贷款合同所致.这里主要分析贷款人的违约风险及其控制措施.     

商业银行个人住房抵押贷款违约风险损失度量研究

随着个人住房抵押贷款的快速发展,我国商业银行个人住房贷款业务所聚集的潜在风险正日益凸现.本文借鉴国内外最新研究成果,从防范风险、提高商业银行资金利用效率的角度,应用Credit metric风险度量模型对采集数据进行度量研究,重点测量了商业银行个人住房抵押贷款所面临的非预期损失,得到了各信用等级抵押贷款的风险价值以及商业银行该为此贷款提取的经济资本,并提出了建立更加科学合理的经济资本缓冲制度的对策建议.     

探究我国商业银行个人住房贷款的风险防范

本文主要分析了我国商业银行个人住房贷款的风险,阐述了个人住房贷款的含义、特点,针对商业银行个人住房贷款的风险问题进行深入研究,结合本次研究,最终提出了商业银行个人住房贷款风险防范的一些具体对策。最终希望通过本文的分析研究,能够实现有效防范商业银行个人住房贷款风险的目标。     

商业银行个人住房贷款集中管理的改革探讨

目前,我国商业银行的消费信贷规模总量中,个人住房贷款占了八成。随着个人住房贷款业务的快速发展,对商业银行的贷款管理和风险控制提出了更高的要求。商业银行应在大力发展消费信贷的同时,高度警惕和注意防范风险。本文从我国商业银行现有个人住房贷款管理模式出发,对个人住房贷款的审批与贷后管理模式进行初步的探讨,并力争提出一些具有操作性的改革建议。     

商业银行个人住房贷款集中管理的改革探讨

目前,我国商业银行的消费信贷规模总量中,个人住房贷款占了八成。随着个人住房贷款业务的快速发展,对商业银行的贷款管理和风险控制提出了更高的要求。商业银行应在大力发展消费信贷的同时,高度警惕和注意防范风险。本文从我国商业银行现有个人住房贷款管理模式出发,对个人住房贷款的审批与贷后管理模式进行初步的探讨,并力争提出一些具有操作性的改革建议。     

我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款风险分析

个人住房抵押贷款已成为商业银行信贷业务必不可少的关键性组成要素,由于受到各种主客观因素影响,商业银行个人住房抵押贷款风险频繁出现,急需要采取针对性措施有效规避风险,促进其健康稳定发展。本文从商业银行个人住房抵押贷款的发展现状入手,深入剖析了商业银行个人住房抵押贷款的存在的风险,并提出防范商业银行个人住房抵押贷款风险对策,如:优化个人住房抵押贷款法律环境、健全内部信贷管理机制等措施。     

个人住房贷款的风险管理

在当前特定的金融市场环境下,个人住房贷款对商业银行来说,并不见得就是低风险的金融产品.在特定意义上说,当前商业银行个人住房贷款所面临的潜在风险甚至要高于其他贷款类型.如果商业银行不能对当前个人住房贷款面临的潜在风险进行有效的识别与控制,那么,未来个人住房贷款的快速扩张可能会成为商业银行的一个不容忽视的风险源.现在沿海一些地区,如上海、杭州等地的房价涨得比较多,特别是投资性购房的比重比较大,大约占到16%～17%.如果投资性购房达到20%,国际上就认为是泡沫经济的表现,是很危险的.     

论商业银行在个人住房贷款中的风险及法律防范

目前,由于我国个人住房贷款业务还存在基础设施建设落后、个人征信系统不够完善等问题,所以,在住房金融业务发展的同时,个人住房贷款也给各商业银行金融信贷业务带来了许多风险及问题。本文阐述了商业银行在个人住房贷款中存在的风险,银行如何做到风险的法律防范。     

论商业银行在个人住房贷款中的风险及法律防范

目前,由于我国个人住房贷款业务还存在基础设施建设落后、个人征信系统不够完善等问题,所以,在住房金融业务发展的同时,个人住房贷款也给各商业银行金融信贷业务带来了许多风险及问题。本文阐述了商业银行在个人住房贷款中存在的风险,银行如何做到风险的法律防范。     

中国工商银行个人住房贷款风险分析及对策研究——以贵州省思南县支行为例

一直以来,商业银行普遍将个人住房贷款业务视为是一种低风险、高利润的资产业务。在商业银行这种错误观念的指引下,商业银行未能重视对个人住房贷款业务风险的有效防范,个人住房贷款业务风险也随着经济的发展逐步开始凸显。本文以中国工商银行思南县支行的个人住房贷款业务为研究对象,结合贵州省思南县当地居民的收入及当地居民的需求现状,对中国工商银行个人住房贷款业务中所存在的主观和客观风险进行较深入的分析,针对存在的弊端和不足提出各种防范个人住房信贷风险的策略和建议。     

住房资产对中国家庭风险金融资产配置的影响研究

随着时代的发展,住房资产与金融资产的联系越来越紧密,逐渐向住房资产金融产品化发展,成为一种新型金融产品,呈现出货币化和金融化的趋势。本文使用probit模型、普通最小二乘法(OLS)、中介效应以及调节效应,采用2015年中国家庭金融问卷调查微观数据(CHFS)对住房资产价值细化,从住房增值、住房贷款和住房总值三个方面对居民家庭风险金融市场进入和风险金融资产配置的影响进行研究。研究发现:(1)住房总值和住房增值对居民家庭是否参与金融市场呈现显著的负向影响,住房贷款对其具有正向影响。(2)住房贷款对居民家庭风险金融资产投资有负向影响,住房增值和住房总值对其有正向影响。(3)幸福感在居民家庭是否参与金融市场和住房增值中存在部分中介效应,安全感在居民家庭风险金融投资和住房贷款之间存在部分中介效应,未来预期在居民家庭是否参与金融市场与居民家庭是否拥有住房贷款中存在调节效应。最后,根据实证结果提出完善金融市场和优化居民金融资产结构的政策建议。     

Evergreening in banking

In the dynamic model of banking, a bank's option to hide its loan losses by rolling over non-performing loans is shown to worsen moral hazard. Contrary to the classic theory, moral hazard may arise even when a bank cannot seek a correlated risk for its loans. The loans seem to be performing and the bank makes a profit although it is de facto insolvent. When the bank's balance sheet includes hidden non-performing loans, the bank may optimally shrink lending or gamble for resurrection by growing aggressively. To eliminate this type of moral hazard, which is broadly consistent with evidence from emerging economies, a few regulatory implications are suggested.     

西方商业银行风险战略实践研究

本文在对西方商业银行风险管理行为进行整体考察的基础上,结合风险管理的发展历程系统总结了商业银行风险战略的基本类型、主要特征和风险战略管理的实践流程.风险战略是商业银行整体经营发展战略中决定风险管理行动方向和范围的系列规划,具有显性和隐性两种表现形式,是全面风险管理框架的必备要素,是风险管理的起点和目标.风险战略管理通过对风险战略定位、选择、实施、评估与控制等一系列相互影响的决策和行动,确保了商业银行的持续稳健经营发展,确保商业银行股东价值增值.本文还对我国商业银行风险战略发展提出了政策建议.     

购房借贷约束与缴存家庭消费——基于公积金运营流动性视角的分析

研究制约住房公积金制度效率的因素及作用机制,对保障国民安居、推动经济高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。鉴于此,本文首先通过构建理论模型,阐述了流动性压力下,公积金对缴存家庭贷款决策与消费的影响及作用机制,并使用中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)对理论假说进行实证检验。研究结果表明:借贷约束会显著降低缴存家庭使用公积金贷款的概率;流动性压力是公积金管理机构提高贷款门槛,从而降低借贷受约束家庭使用公积金贷款概率的重要原因;未获得公积金贷款支持的缴存家庭因购房成本的增加,家庭的非耐用品消费受到显著抑制。本文进一步通过倾向得分匹配方法和两阶段最小二乘法处理内生性问题,识别结果显示上述结论稳健可靠。本文研究表明:改善运营资金流动性不仅有助于提高公积金制度的运行效率,完善我国的住房保障体系,还有助于促进居民消费,提振内需,并为企业减费降负提供有效支持。     

商业银行客户关系管理的价值链模型研究

本文在系统比较关于价值链的四大主要理论基础上,以波特的传统价值链模型为基础,结合商业银行以客户为中心的经营特点,构建了适用于商业银行客户关系管理的价值链模型,它将银行的价值活动分为由识别挑选客户、获取客户、保持客户、升级客户和退出客户等环节构成的基本活动,以及由领导和经营思想、人力资源管理、组织结构、组织文化和技术支持等环节构成的辅助活动两大类,该价值链的最终目标在于通过这些活动在银行与客户之间建立一种长期的、互利互惠的关系,银行如果能比竞争对手更好地、灵活地开展这些活动,就能赢得竞争优势。     

A note on the spread between the rates of fixed and variable rate loans

An expression of the optimal expected spread between the rates of fixed and variable rate loans offered by a competitive risk-averse bank is derived. We find that the expected spread varies directly with the volatility of the funding cost, the bank's degree of risk aversion, and the competitive profit margin on variable rate loans. Our analysis also characterizes the optimal mix of fixed and variable rate lending in a bank's loan portfolio.     

Relationship Banking, Fragility, and the Asset-Liability Matching Problem

We address a fundamental question in relationship banking: whydo banks that make relationship loans finance themselves primarilywith core deposits and when would it be optimal to finance suchloans with purchased money? We show that not only are relationshiploans informationally opaque and illiquid, but they also requirethe relationship between the bank and the borrower to endurein order for the bank to add value. However, the informationalopacity of relationship loans gives rise to endogenous withdrawalrisk that makes the bank fragile. Core deposits are an attractivefunding source for such loans because the bank provides liquidityservices to core depositors and this diminishes the likelihoodof premature deposit withdrawal, thereby facilitating the continuityof relationship loans. That is, we show that banks will wishto match the highest value-added liabilities with the highestvalue-added loans and that doing so simultaneously minimizesthe bank's fragility owing to withdrawal risk and maximizesthe value the bank adds in relationship lending. We also examinethe impact of interbank competition on the bank's asset-liabilitymatching and extract numerous testable predictions.     

试论国有商业银行助学贷款的发展策略

当前助学贷款存在着风险大、收益低以及不良率居高不下等问题,不仅严重制约了国有商业银行发展助学贷款的积极性,而且也影响了国家科教兴国、加快高等教育事业发展策略的实施.为了防范和化解我国国有商业银行助学贷款风险,有必要探究助学贷款陷于困境的原因,并借鉴和吸取国际上助学贷款的成功经验及教训,在用足用好国家对于助学贷款的有关政策,进一步强化国家助学贷款风险管理的同时,通过把社会效益和经济效益有机结合起来,把助学贷款风险控制与建立健全个人信用体系结合起来,把国家助学贷款与商业性助学贷款结合起来,为国有商业银行的长远发展创造良好的条件.     

Banks' option to lend,interest rate sensitivity,and credit availability

Interest rate risk is a major concern for banks because of the nominal nature of their assets and the asset-liability maturity mismatch. This paper proposes a new way to derive a bank's interest rate sensitivity, by examining separately the effects of interest rate changes on existing loans(loans-in-place) and potential loans (loans-in-process). A potential loan is shown to be equivalent to an American option to lend, and is valued using option theory. An increase in interest rates generally has a negative effect on existing loans. However, if both deposit and lending rates rise by the same amount, the value of a potential loan generally increases. Hence a bank's lending slack (or ratio of loans-in-process to loans-in-place) will determine its overall interest rate risk. Empirical evidence indicates that low-slack banks indeed have significantly more interest rate risk than high-slack banks. The model also makes predictions regarding the effect of deposit and lending rate parameters on bank credit availability. Empirical tests with quarterly data are generally supportive of these predictions. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Financial deregulation and efficiency: An empirical analysis of Indian banks during the post reform period

The paper investigates the performance of Indian commercial banking sector during the post reform period 1992-2002. Several efficiency estimates of individual banks are evaluated using nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Three different approaches viz., intermediation approach, value-added approach and operating approach have been employed to differentiate how efficiency scores vary with changes in inputs and outputs. The analysis links the variation in calculated efficiencies to a set of variables, i.e., bank size, ownership, capital adequacy ratio, non-performing loans and management quality. The findings suggest that medium-sized public sector banks performed reasonably well and are more likely to operate at higher levels of technical efficiency. A close relationship is observed between efficiency and soundness as determined by bank's capital adequacy ratio. The empirical results also show that technically more efficient banks are those that have, on an average, less non-performing loans. A multivariate analysis based on the Tobit model reinforces these findings.