Unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion

We propose an identified structural GARCH model to disentangle the dynamics of financial market crises. We distinguish between the hypersensitivity of a domestic market in crisis to news from foreign non-crisis markets, and the contagion imported to a tranquil domestic market from foreign crises. The model also enables us to connect unobserved structural shocks with their source markets using variance decompositions and to compare the size and dynamics of impulses during crises periods with tranquil period impulses. To illustrate, we apply the method to data from the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis which consists of a complicated set of interacting crises. We find significant hypersensitivity and contagion between these markets but also show that links may strengthen or weaken. Impulse response functions for an equally-weighted equity portfolio show the increasing dominance of Korean and Hong Kong shocks during the crises and covariance responses demonstrate multiple layers of contagion effects.     

DIVERGENT EXPECTATIONS AND THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997

An important question concerning integration of global financial markets is whether local investors in an equity market react differently from international investors, particularly during periods of financial crisis. Considering local investors are closer to information, they might turn pessimistic before foreign investors before a crisis. We examine whether local investors in each of the six Asian stock markets—Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand—reacted differently from international investors during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Our empirical results indicate that, in general, closed‐end country fund share prices (mainly driven by foreign investors) Granger‐cause the respective net asset values (NAVs, mainly driven by local investors). Moreover, this one‐way Granger‐causality effect from share prices to NAVs becomes much stronger during the crisis period after controlling for U.S. stock returns. Our results suggest international investors turned pessimistic before local investors. JEL classification: G15     

Price Linkages Between the US,Japan and UK Stock Markets

This study presents an empirical analysis of the short- and long-term relationships among stock prices in the US, Japan and the UK. We re-examine the evidence of market linkages and cointegration between S&P 500, Nikkei 225 and FTSE-100 stock indices. The results suggest that mature markets are cointegrated, indicating a stationary long-run relationship. Furthermore, Granger causality tests show a bi-directional causality between Nikkei 225–FTSE-100, and unidirectional causalities between S&P 500–FTSE-100 and S&P 500–Nikkei 225. These findings suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in mature markets is limited.     

The market’s view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons

Hall and Miles (1990) suggest an approach of estimating default probabilities of banks using stock market information, and in this paper we apply an aggregated version of their approach to banking sectors around the world in both developed and emerging economies. We study the market’s assessment of the probability of systemic banking crises world wide over the last decade, including the Asian crisis 1997–1998. In addition, we investigate whether there is a relationship between the failure probability and institutional features of the actual banking sector. The quality of governance and the degree of law and order in a country is found to be significantly negatively related to the market based failure probabilities as is an explicit deposit insurance during periods of crisis.     

Are financial spillovers stable across regimes?: Evidence from the 1997 Asian crisis

We investigate breaks in financial spillovers between the US and eight South-East Asian capital markets before and during the 1997 Asian crisis. We construct threshold vector autoregressive models and apply novel techniques to test whether causality patterns between markets are characterized by one or two regimes. Linkages between the US and Asian markets are shown to follow the threshold model with two regimes, turmoil and tranquility, pointing to differences in cross-border return spillovers in stable and crisis periods. The causality analysis shows that spillovers between US and Asian markets become stronger in the turmoil regime.     

Cointegration and causality in the Asian and emerging foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the 1990s financial crises

This article examines the cointegration level, changes in the existence and directions of causality of the foreign exchange (FX) rates in the Asian and emerging markets during the 1990s financial crises. Engle and Granger's simple bivariate and Johansen's multivariate cointegrations are applied to the FX rates for the 1994 Mexican, 1997 Asian, 1998 Russian, and 1999 Brazilian crises. In addition, the article conducts the Granger causality test and impulse response analysis to examine the causality pattern in all the FX rates. The analysis shows most of the pre-Mexican causality disappears and significant numbers of new causality emerge in the 1994 Mexican crisis while the 1997 Asian crisis generates significant spillover effects into the later part of the 1998 Russian and 1999 Brazilian crises.     

The Changing Relationship Between CAMEL Ratings and Bank Soundness during the Indonesian Banking Crisis

During the recent Southeast Asian financial crisis, numerous banks failed quickly and unexpectedly. This study uses a unique data set provided by Bank Indonesia to examine the changing financial soundness of Indonesian banks during this crisis. Bank Indonesia's non-public CAMEL ratings data allow the use of a continuous bank soundness measure rather than ordinal measures. In addition, panel data regression procedures that allow for the identification of the appropriate statistical model are used.We argue the nature of the risks facing the Indonesian banking community calls for the addition of a systemic risk component to the Indonesian ranking system. The empirical results show that during Indonesia's stable economic periods, four of the five traditional CAMEL components provide insights into the financial soundness of Indonesian banks. However, during Indonesia's crisis period, the relationships between financial characteristics and CAMEL ratings deteriorate and only one of the traditional CAMEL components—earnings—objectively discriminates among the ratings. The panel data results indicate systemic economy-wide forces must be explicitly considered by the rating system.     

Temporal relationships among adjustable-rate mortgage indexes

This article investigates the linkage among six ARM indexes during the 1978–1989 period. Granger's direct causality test is used to examine their relationship within a rolling regression framework. The nonstationary properties of each index and selected pairs of indexes are investigated by using the unit root and cointegration tests. The empirical results confirmed their relationship has changed over this period and short-term rates lead the eleventh district cost-of-funds index. The implications of the empirical results from the perspectives of borrowers (ARM choice), lenders (pricing), and investors (security valuation) are also discussed.     

Early-warning analysis for currency crises in emerging markets: A revisit with fuzzy clustering

Currency crises, also often called balance-of-payment crises, occur when massive capital outflows force a country to devalue or float its currency. The world-wide integration of capital markets since the 1980s and 1990s has increased the degree of capital mobility, which also determined a substantial turbulence in foreign exchange markets and frequent currency crises. In this paper, we explore advanced supporting instruments for predicting currency crises, based on an empirical study of the currency crisis episodes in 23 emerging markets around the world during the second half of last century. More specifically, we investigate the usefulness of prediction models built based on the fuzzy c-means method. First we build clustering models that partition data into a certain number of overlapping natural groups. Thereafter, we classify the data clusters into early-warning clusters and tranquil clusters. We compare the performance of our models with a conventional c-means clustering model and a benchmark probit model. The results show that the proposed models achieve a similar level of out-of-sample performance as the probit model and c-means model. The fuzzy approach also introduces additional explanatory advantages into the early-warning analysis process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study of cointegration and variance decomposition among national equity indices before and during the period of the Asian financial crisis

This study uses a cointegration and variance decomposition analysis to examine the linkages among the stock markets of 12 Asia–Pacific countries, before and during the period of the Asian financial crisis. Johansen (1988) multivariate cointegration and error-correction tests demonstrate evidence in support of the existence of cointegration relationships among the national stock indices during, but not before, the period of financial crises. In the recent crisis, the relationship within the South-East Asian countries seems to be stronger than that within the North-East Asian countries. The variance decomposition reveals that the ‘degree of exogeneity’ for all indices has been reduced, implying that no countries are ‘exogenous’ to the financial crisis. In addition, Granger’s causality test suggests that the US market still ‘causes’ some Asian countries during the period of crisis, reflecting the US market’s persisting dominant role.     

Extreme risk spillover network: application to financial institutions

Using the CAViaR tool to estimate the value-at-risk (VaR) and the Granger causality risk test to quantify extreme risk spillovers, we propose an extreme risk spillover network for analysing the interconnectedness across financial institutions. We construct extreme risk spillover networks at 1% and 5% risk levels (which we denote 1% and 5% VaR networks) based on the daily returns of 84 publicly listed financial institutions from four sectors—banks, diversified financials, insurance and real estate—during the period 2006–2015. We find that extreme risk spillover networks have a time-lag effect. Both the static and dynamic networks show that on average the real estate and bank sectors are net senders of extreme risk spillovers and the insurance and diversified financials sectors are net recipients, which coheres with the evidence from the recent global financial crisis. The networks during the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis exhibited distinctive topological features that differed from those in tranquil periods. Our approach supplies new information on the interconnectedness across financial agents that will prove valuable not only to investors and hedge fund managers, but also to regulators and policy-makers.     

Reducing conflict in balanced scorecard evaluations

Recent studies [Ittner, C., & Larcker, D. (2003). Coming up short on nonfinancial performance measurement. Harvard Business Review(November) 88–95; Ittner, C., Larcker, D., & Randall, T. (2003b). Performance implications of strategic performance measurement in financial services firms. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 28, 715–741] provide evidence of companies’ tendency to overlook the validity of the causal links between driver and outcome measures of the balanced scorecard (BSC), and to ignore the underlying strategically-linked causal business models. It is posited that this propensity leads to conflict between top management and divisional managers because of the failure of the former to evaluate and consider strategy effectiveness in performance evaluation. The present study hypothesizes that individuals in the top-manager role do not take into account strategy effectiveness unless they are explicitly required to do so. In contrast, individuals in the store-manager role automatically consider the quality of strategy without being prompted to do so. A study using 63 evening MBA students provides support for the hypotheses. The results have implications for the study of evaluation biases in BSC as well as in other performance measurement systems, and for devising means to mitigate them.     

Do birds of the same feather flock together?: The case of the Chinese states equity markets

We examine the equity market price interdependence between China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan based on the [Journal of Econometrics 66 (1995) 225] causality test which we bootstrap with leveraged adjustments. A new information criterion is used to choose the optimal lag order. We cover the period January 1, 1993–September 10, 2001 taking into account the Asian financial crisis in 1997. We find that before the Asian crisis, the only interaction among the Chinese markets was between Singapore and the markets of Taiwan and Hong Kong with the causality running from the former to the latter. However, after the Asian crisis, the Chinese equity markets became more interdependent among themselves although Hong Kong remained non-influential.     

Contagion,decoupling and the spillover effects of the US financial crisis: Evidence from the BRIC markets

Even though the global contagion effects of the financial crisis have been well documented, the transmission mechanism as well as the nature of the volatility spillovers among the US, the EU and the BRIC markets has not been systematically investigated. To examine the dynamic linear and nonlinear causal linkages a stepwise filtering methodology is introduced, for which vector autoregressions and various multivariate GARCH representations are adopted. The sample covers the after-Euro period and includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone debt crisis. The empirical results show that the BRICs have become more internationally integrated after the US financial crisis and contagion is further substantiated. Moreover, no consistent evidence in support of the “decoupling” view is found. Some nonlinear causal links persist after filtering during the examined period. This indicates that nonlinear causality can, to a large extent, be explained by simple volatility effects, although tail dependency and higher-moments may be significant factors of the remaining interdependencies.     

Determinants of bank efficiency during unstable macroeconomic environment: Empirical evidence from Malaysia

The present study investigates for the first time the efficiency of Malaysian banking sector around the Asian financial crisis 1997. The efficiency estimates of individual banks are evaluated by using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. To examine the robustness of the estimated efficiency scores under various alternatives and to differentiate how efficiency scores vary with changes in inputs and outputs, the present study focuses on three major approaches viz., intermediation approach, value added approach, and operating approach. The analysis further links the variation in calculated efficiencies to a set of explanatory variables, i.e. bank size, profitability, and ownership. The empirical findings clearly bring forth the high degree of inefficiency in the Malaysian banking sector, particularly a year after the East Asian crisis. The results suggest that the decline in technical efficiency is more abrupt under the intermediation approach relative to the value added approach and operating approach. The regression results focusing on bank efficiency and other bank specific traits suggest that efficiency is negatively related to expense preference behavior and economic conditions, while bank efficiency is positively related to loans intensity.     

Consumption smoothing channels in open economies

Many intertemporal open economy macro models imply a theory of consumption smoothing channels; thus we build an empirical model to analyze the intertemporal smoothing role of saving components (fixed investments, inventories and trade balance) through the use of VAR impulse responses to different types of shocks. We find that for the OECD countries the bulk of intertemporal smoothing has been carried out domestically, via gross fixed investments and inventories, but the trade balance has also played a relevant – albeit volatile – smoothing role. We also characterize the dynamic behavior of each component: the trade balance and inventories are mostly used as short-run smoothing tools while fixed investment provides more and more smoothing over time. We can also address some empirical puzzles, such as the “excess sensitivity of investment” anomaly (Glick, R., Rogoff, K., 1995. Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account. Journal of Monetary Economics, 35, 159–192) and the “saving-investment correlation puzzle” (Feldstein, M., Horioka, C., 1980. Domestic saving and international capital flows. Economic Journal, 90, 314–329).     

Butterfly effect: The US real estate market downturn and the Asian recession

We construct a comprehensive measure for the evolution of the US financial crisis by extracting the common components in the real estate market (S&P Case-Shiller composite-10 housing price index), the equity market (S&P 500 index), and the money market (M2 money multiplier). We then investigate the effects of this crisis on six Asian economies. Using the quarterly data from Q1 1991 to Q1 2010, we find that, surprisingly, the Asian equity markets are not contagious by the crisis; rather, trade contagion is the dominant transmission channel for the crisis to be transmitted to Asia. Finally, our empirical investigations suggest that monetary policy, rather fiscal policy, is a better choice for assisting Asian economies during this crisis.     

The relationship between stock returns and volatility in international stock markets

This study examines the relationship between expected stock returns and volatility in the 12 largest international stock markets during January 1980 to December 2001. Consistent with most previous studies, we find a positive but insignificant relationship during the sample period for the majority of the markets based on parametric EGARCH-M models. However, using a flexible semiparametric specification of conditional variance, we find evidence of a significant negative relationship between expected returns and volatility in 6 out of the 12 markets. The results lend some support to the recent claim [Bekaert, G., Wu, G., 2000. Asymmetric volatility and risk in equity markets. Review of Financial Studies 13, 1–42; Whitelaw, R., 2000. Stock market risk and return: an empirical equilibrium approach. Review of Financial Studies 13, 521–547] that stock market returns are negatively correlated with stock market volatility.     

Is accounting a global or a local discipline? evidence from major research journals

Accounting research is torn between two competing forces. On the one hand, a quest for general results and internationalization of financial markets calls for a global approach and international co-operation. On the other hand, domestic institutional settings call for research that deals with the relevant problems of the existing accounting systems. In this paper we address the issue of how global or local the accounting research community currently is through an analysis of empirical studies published by six leading English language accounting research journals from the U.S.A., Europe and Australia, during the period 1984–1993. Our findings indicate that accounting still is a rather local discipline by nature: both empirical evidence and authors are significantly clustered along country lines. We find that 77% of papers fall in a category where the origin of the researcher, data and the journal, is the same. Especially there is a close link between the origin of the researcher and that of the data. The interpretation of the empirical findings lead us to a view of competing research élites. A powerful and currently dominating U.S. academic élite is centred around The Accounting Review, the Journal of Accounting Research and the Journal of Accounting and Economics; and an emerging, mostly European élite around Accounting, Organizations and Society. The functioning of research élites produces competing quality criteria which are intertwined with methodological and cultural issues. The emerging “policentric oligarchy” of research élites helps to remove institutional barriers to the knowledge production process and offers legitimate outlets for a wider range of approaches.     

The determinants of bank interest rate margins: an international study

This paper studies the determinants of bank net interest margins (NIMs) in six selected European countries and the US during the period 1988–1995 for a sample of 614 banks. We apply the Ho and Saunders model (Ho, T., Saunders, A., 1981. The determinants of bank interest margins: theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analyses 16, 581–600) to a multicountry setting and decompose bank margins into a regulatory component, a market structure component and a risk premium component. The regulatory components in the form of interest-rate restrictions on deposits, reserve requirements and capital-to-asset ratios have a significant impact on banks NIMs. The empirical results suggest an important policy trade-off between assuring bank solvency—high capital-to-asset ratios—and lowering the cost of financial services to consumers—low NIMs. The more segmented or restricted the banking system—both geographically and by activity—the larger appears to be the monopoly power of existing banks, and the higher their spreads. Macro interest-rate volatility was found to have a significant impact on bank NIMs; this suggests that macro policies consistent with reduced interest-rate volatility could have a positive effect in reducing bank margins.