Borrowing to Finance Public Investment? The ‘Golden Rule of Public Finance’ Reconsidered in an Endogenous Growth Setting*

In this paper, we look for long‐run and short‐run effects of fiscal deficits on economic growth and welfare in a standard endogenous growth model. We show that, under very general hypotheses, the ‘golden rule of public finance’, which allows a government to run public‐investment‐oriented fiscal deficits, leads to a lower balanced‐growth path in the long run, and eventually in the short run, compared with balanced‐budget rules. Welfare effects are more difficult to assess, and depend on the form of the utility function. Our model shows that debt rules such as the golden rule may improve (if the consumption elasticity of substitution is ‘low’) or weaken (if the consumption elasticity of substitution is ‘high’) intertemporal welfare. Consequently, a balanced‐budget rule does not necessarily dominate debt rules from the point of view of welfare, while it does from the point of view of long‐run economic growth.     

A Tale of Two Growth Engines: Interactive Effects of Monetary Policy and Intellectual Property Rights

How do intellectual property rights that determine the market power of firms influence the growth and welfare effects of monetary policy? To analyze this question, we develop a monetary hybrid endogenous growth model in which R&D and capital accumulation are both engines of long‐run economic growth. We find that monetary expansion hurts economic growth and social welfare by reducing R&D and capital accumulation. Furthermore, a larger market power of firms strengthens these growth and welfare effects of monetary policy through the R&D channel but weakens these effects through the capital‐accumulation channel. Therefore, whether the market power of firms amplifies or mitigates the welfare cost of inflation depends on the relative importance of the two growth engines. Finally, we calibrate the model using data in the United States and the Euro Area to quantitatively evaluate and compare the welfare cost of inflation in these two economies and find that the R&D channel dominates in both economies.     

Public capital, public pension, and growth

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations, whose engine of economic growth is productive public capital. We investigate a public policy under which the government allocates tax revenue between investment in public capital accumulation and public pension provision. We show that increasing the share of spending on public pensions always reduces economic growth. However, we show numerically that public pension provision improves social welfare and there exists an optimal share of spending on public pension provision unless the value of the time discount factor of the government is sufficiently high. Moreover, we show that in an economy facing an aging population, an increase in social security provision for the old rather than an increase in public investment can be preferable from the viewpoint of social welfare.     

Corruption and Transparency in a Growth Model

We develop a Ramsey type model of economic growth in which the “Engine of Growth” is public capital accumulation. Public capital is a public good, and is financed by taxes on private output. The government may either use the taxes gathered to fund public capital accumulation or consume the resourses itself; that is engage in corruption. There is an irreducable level of endogenously determined corruption which constitutes rents for which potential governments compete. This competition takes the form of choosing a time path for public capital invesment, which implies time paths for output and household consumption. We study both the model’s steady state, and dynamical behavior along the saddle path. The predictions of our theory accord well with the existent empirical evidence on the relationships between the level and growth rate of output, corruption, public investment and fiscal transparency. Our analysis also provides a perspective on the transition experiences of several Eastern European economies. JEL Code: O41, H41     

Government investment and fiscal stimulus

Effects of government investment are studied in an estimated neoclassical growth model. The analysis focuses on two dimensions that are critical for understanding government investment as a fiscal stimulus: implementation delays for building public capital and expected fiscal adjustments to deficit-financed spending. Implementation delays can produce small or even negative labor and output responses to increases in government investment in the short run. Anticipated fiscal adjustments matter both quantitatively and qualitatively for long-run growth effects. When public capital is insufficiently productive, distorting financing can make government investment contractionary at longer horizons.     

Human Capital Spending,Inequality, and Growth in Middle-Income Asia

Asia’s rapid population aging fortifies the case for strengthening human capital investments. Further, the experience of the newly industrialized economies suggests that human capital investments will be a vital ingredient of the transition from middle income to high income. Those investments can also affect equity and public finances. In this article, we use data from the National Transfer Accounts to empirically analyze the effect of human capital investment in Asian countries on economic growth, inequality, and fiscal balance. Our empirical evidence suggests that human capital investments have a positive effect on labor productivity and, hence, output. The positive effect is stronger for poorer households and, hence, beneficial for equity. We also find that such investments can generate sufficient tax revenues to improve the fiscal balance. Overall, our evidence points to a positive effect of human capital on growth, equity, and fiscal balance in Asia.     

“稳增长”与“防风险”双目标的宏观调控政策抉择

“防风险”和“稳增长”是当前宏观调控的两大政策目标,为此,本文构建一个平衡兼顾双重政策目标的门限理论模型框架,基于反事实方法评估了动态平衡上述两大目标的最优财政货币政策组合。研究表明:(1)2008年以前,财政政策和货币政策都表现出较强的稳增长政策功效,但国际金融危机后,政策取向更倾向于动态平衡“稳增长”与“防风险”目标。(2)财政政策对三部门杠杆的影响呈现显著增强态势,数量型货币政策效果则在经历“增加—下降”周期后趋于稳定,利率政策效果显著而且近年来呈现增强态势,由此表明利率的传导效果正在不断得以强化。(3)从反事实结果看,宏观调控的最优政策搭配抉择取决于政策当局在动态平衡不同目标中的政策取向,特别是,依赖于精准调控“稳增长”与“防风险”目标的偏好强度。     

货币政策纳入资产价格目标后能更好地调控经济波动吗——基于金融结构视角的分析

本文通过构建包含金融结构的NK-DSGE模型,分析在不同的金融结构下,包含金融资产价格稳定目标的扩展型货币政策能否更加有效地熨平经济波动.研究表明:(1)相比传统货币政策,包含金融资产价格稳定目标的货币政策不仅能更好地熨平宏观经济波动、缩短波动持续期,还能提升社会福利;(2)在扩展型货币政策框架下,央行需结合不同类型冲击下金融结构与宏观调控变量波动的异质相关性,依据金融结构市场化进程,灵活调整其对各个变量的调控力度;(3)在扩展型货币政策框架下,当经济体系面临非持续性技术冲击、投资边际效率冲击或金融冲击时,金融结构市场化程度越高,社会福利增进效果越好.本文的研究为宏观经济调控政策特别是货币政策决策提供了有益启示,或可为新时期增强宏观经济调控效果、构建兼顾金融稳定和经济稳定的平衡发展路径提供新思路和新抓手.     

Assessing Economic and Fiscal Reforms in Lebanon: A Dynamic CGE Analysis with Debt Constraints

Since the early 1990s, Lebanon has undertaken a number of economic reforms, covering international trade and internal fiscal policy issues in particular. Simultaneously, debt has been skyrocketing, partially justified by reconstruction needs after the end of the civil war. Fostering economic growth seems to be the only way out of the debt trap, but reforms intended to stimulate growth may well have adverse short-run effects on public and external deficits. We construct a dynamic open-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with debt constraints in the sense that external debt requires physical capital as collateral. The CGE model allows us to study the effects of a number of important economic policy issues, such as fiscal policy reform, World Trade Organization (WTO) membership, and foreign direct investment, in a multisectoral dynamic setting under the realistic assumption that debt constraints relax when the economy starts growing. Included in the results are reports on scenarios of trade liberalization and political stabilization.     

分税与地方财政支出结构

本文研究了税收分成对地方财政支出结构的影响。理论分析发现,在地方政府的财政支出结构竞争中,税收分成比例的提高将直接导致地方政府增加生产性公共支出,发挥生产性支出的产出外部性,提高产出水平和自身税收收入水平,实现福利最大化。一系列经验分析显著地验证了上述结论,即当地级市政府的税收分成率提高10%,该地区生产性支出占比将提高1.39%。本文的分析和结论有助于解释中国地方财政支出结构变动的原因,从而为政府间税收分配改革提供有效的政策建议。