Addressing insurance price discrimination in an era of diversity,equity, and inclusion

The early 2020s diversity, equity, and inclusion movement has prompted debate about banning the use of suspect insurance pricing variables because they discriminate against protected classes, such as gender. This paper demonstrates how banning an insurance pricing variable currently used in insurance pricing models can result in regulatory adverse selection if the ban heterogeneously combines policyowners with different expected losses into the same risk class, contrary to risk-based pricing. The paper begins by describing several recent regulatory and judicial decisions to ban insurance pricing variables. It next describes the process used by insurers to set insurance prices, followed by a discussion of applicable insurance discrimination laws. Using a simple risk aversion model, the paper next examines whether a ban on gender-based auto insurance pricing in California in 2019 results in regulatory adverse selection. The paper concludes by describing possible alternative pricing variables available to auto insurers if gender-based pricing is banned.     

Testing for Adverse Selection in Insurance Markets

This article reviews and evaluates the empirical literature on adverse selection in insurance markets. We focus on empirical work that seeks to test the basic coverage–risk prediction of adverse selection theory—that is, that policyholders who purchase more insurance coverage tend to be riskier. The analysis of this body of work, we argue, indicates that whether such a correlation exists varies across insurance markets and pools of insurance policies. We discuss various reasons why a coverage–risk correlation may not be found in some pools of insurance policies. The presence of a coverage–risk correlation can be explained either by moral hazard or adverse selection, and we discuss methods for distinguishing between them. Finally, we review the evidence on learning by policyholders and insurers.     

Testing Adverse Selection With Two‐Dimensional Information: Evidence From the Singapore Auto Insurance Market

This article examines adverse selection in insurance markets with two‐dimensional information: policyholders’ riskiness and degree of risk aversion. We build a theoretical model to make equilibrium predictions on competitive insurance screening. We study several variations on the pattern of information asymmetry. The outcomes range from full separation to partial separation, and complete pooling of risk types. Next, we propose a copula approach to jointly examine policyholders’ coverage choice and accident occurrence in the Singapore automobile insurance market. Furthermore, we invoke the theory to identify subgroups of policyholders for whom one may expect the risk–coverage correlation and adverse selection to arise.     

The Economics of Insurance Intermediaries

This article analyzes the economic functions of independent insurance intermediaries (brokers and independent agents), focusing on the commercial property–casualty insurance market. The article investigates the functions performed by intermediaries, the competitiveness of the market, the compensation arrangements for intermediaries, and the process by which policies are placed with insurers. Insurance intermediaries are essentially market makers who match the insurance needs of policyholders with insurers who have the capability of meeting those needs. Intermediary compensation comprises premium‐based commissions, expressed as a percentage of the premium paid, and contingent commissions based on the profitability, persistency, and/or volume of the business placed with the insurer. Empirical evidence is provided that premium‐based and contingent commissions are passed on to policyholders in the premium. However, contingent commissions can enhance competitive bidding by aligning the insurer's and the intermediary's interests. This alignment of interests gives insurers more confidence in the selection of risks and thus helps to break the “winner's curse” and encourages insurers to bid more aggressively. Independent intermediaries also help markets operate more efficiently by reducing the information asymmetries between insurers and buyers that can cause adverse selection.     

Adverse Selection and the Opaqueness of Insurers

While adverse selection problems between insureds and insurers are well known to insurance researchers, few explore adverse selection in the insurance industry from a capital markets perspective. This study examines adverse selection in the quoted prices of insurers' common stocks with a particular focus on the opacity of both asset portfolios and underwriting liabilities. We find that more opaque underwriting lines result in greater adverse selection costs for property-casualty (P-C) insurers. A similar effect is not apparent for life-health (L-H) insurers and we find no effect of asset opaqueness on adverse selection for either L-H or P-C insurers.     

Investment guarantees in unit-linked life insurance from the customer perspective

Interest rate guarantees are a typical contract feature in unit-linked-life insurance products. As the financial crisis of 2007/2008 has shown, these guarantees can be of substantial value for policyholders since they ensure that at least a minimum amount will be paid back even if the mutual fund value falls below a specific guaranteed level. However, from the insurance company’s view, these guarantees can be costly—especially in highly volatile markets—due to the required risk management measures which must be undertaken to secure the guarantees promised to the customers. Thus, the aim of this paper is to investigate whether customers really value these guarantees and if their willingness to pay (WTP) is sufficient to cover the guarantee costs. To elicit customer WTP, we use an online questionnaire and compare these results to the actual guarantee costs calculated with the Black and Scholes option pricing formula. One main finding is that even though most of the participants in the online questionnaire work in the financial industry, subjective prices are difficult to derive and are lower, on average, than the prices obtained using a financial pricing model. However, many participants are still willing to pay a substantially higher price.     

Participating Insurance Contracts and the Rothschild-Stiglitz Equilibrium Puzzle

We extend the Rothschild-Stiglitz (RS) insurance market model with adverse selection by allowing insurers to offer either non-participating or participating policies, that is, insurance contracts with policy dividends or supplementary calls for premium. It is shown that an equilibrium always exists in such a setting. Participating policies act as an implicit threat that dissuades deviant insurers who aim to attract low-risk individuals only. The model predicts that the mutual corporate form should be prevalent in insurance markets where second-best Pareto efficiency requires cross-subsidisation between risk types.     

On the Lack of Participating Policy Usage by Stock Insurance Companies

Stock insurers can reduce or eliminate agency conflicts between policyholders and stockholders by issuing participating insurance. Despite this benefit, most stock companies don't offer participating contracts. This study explains why. We study an equilibrium with both stock and mutual insurers in which stockholders set premiums to provide a fair expected return on their investment, and with a policyholder who chooses the insurance contract that maximizes her expected utility. We demonstrate that stockholders cannot profitably offer fully participating contracts, but can profitably offer partially participating insurance. However, when the policyholder participation fraction is high, the fair‐return premium is so large that the policyholder always prefers fully participating insurance from the mutual company. Policies with lower levels of policyholder participation are optimal for policyholders with relatively high risk aversion, though such policies are usually prohibited by insurance legislation. Thus, the reason stock insurers rarely issue participating contracts isn't because the potential benefits are small or unimportant. Rather, profitability or regulatory constraints simply prevent stock insurers from exercising those benefits in equilibrium.     

Deregulation,Pricing Strategies,and Claim Behavior in the Taiwan Automobile Insurance Market

Stringent pricing regulations have long been in effect in the Taiwan automobile insurance market. In April 2009, a pricing deregulation was adopted, enabling insurers to establish their own auto insurance premium rates. This study examines the effects of deregulation in terms of three hypotheses that we propose pertaining to market shares, loading factors, and last policy month claims. The quantitative analysis results show that pricing deregulation prompts insurers to lower their rates. The effects of deregulation for insurers are determined by not only the decision to deduct premiums and the deduction percentages, but also by policy type.     

Risk Taking and Performance of Public Insurers: An International Comparison

We investigate how investor protection, government quality, and contract enforcement affect risk taking and performance of insurance companies from around the world. We find that better investor protection results in less risk taking, as do higher quality government and greater contract enforceability. However, we find only limited evidence that these factors influence firm performance. We conclude that better overall operating environments result in less risk taking by insurers without the concomitant decline in performance. These results imply that better investor protection environments benefit policyholders and outside stockholders by preventing corporate insiders from expropriating wealth from policyholders and outside stockholders.     

Optimal rate classification for enhanced annuities

For a given premium, enhanced annuities pay higher pensions to policyholders with impaired health. Even though risk classification is a common concept in the insurance sector and should allow insurers to increase their profitability, enhanced annuities are rarely offered outside of the United Kingdom. The paper provides a general method of determining an optimal risk classification system for enhanced annuities that will maximize an insurance company’s profits. The cost of risk classification, as well as that incurred when insureds are assigned to inappropriate risk classes (a chief component of underwriting risk), are explicitly considered.     

Do insurers respond to active purchasing? Evidence from the Massachusetts health insurance exchange

Health insurance markets face continued challenges with high premiums and limited insurer competition. We describe a unique set of “active purchasing” policies used by Massachusetts' pioneer health insurance exchange to shape the rules of competition and reward lower-price insurers with additional customers. We provide evidence that these policies significantly influenced insurer pricing. Between 2010 and 2013, over 80% of insurer prices were set exactly at or within 1% of pricing thresholds created by active purchasing policies. A key “limited choice” policy was associated with a 16%–20% reduction in average insurance prices relative to comparison markets in 2012–2014. Insurers achieved these price cuts partly through cost reductions via narrower provider networks and partly through reduced profit margins.     

Insurance loss coverage and social welfare

Restrictions on insurance risk classification may induce adverse selection, which is usually perceived as a bad outcome, both for insurers and for society. However, a social benefit of modest adverse selection is that it can lead to an increase in ‘loss coverage’, defined as expected losses compensated by insurance for the whole population. We reconcile the concept of loss coverage to a utilitarian concept of social welfare commonly found in the economic literature on risk classification. For iso-elastic insurance demand, ranking risk classification schemes by (observable) loss coverage always give the same ordering as ranking by (unobservable) social welfare.     

Temporal Profitability and Pricing of Long-Term Care Insurance

Equilibrium models of dynamic insurance markets can be bifurcated according to underlying assumptions about whether or not insurers commit to long‐term contracts. The difference is substantial in that commitment models imply price highballing over time while no‐commitment models indicate price lowballing. Extant empirical studies provide mixed evidence, however. We use long‐term care (LTC) insurance data, which allow us both to better control for heterogeneous, observable risk, to examine dynamic profitability and pricing in a relatively young, innovative insurance market. Our tests generally indicate temporal price lowballing, thereby providing support for the no‐commitment models.     

The Effects of Customer Satisfaction on Company Profitability: Evidence From the Property and Casualty Insurance Industry

Prior literature presents a positive link between customer satisfaction and firms’ financial outcomes, including greater revenue, profitability, and prices. However, few studies approach the topic of customer satisfaction in the insurance industry. Using a unique data set obtained from J.D. Power, we observe customer satisfaction among U.S. auto insurers and link their customer satisfaction rating to insurer profitability metrics. Our results support the notion that greater customer satisfaction leads to reduced expenses and increased profitability. A potential explanation is that more satisfied customers are more likely to remain with an insurance company and refer others to the insurer, reducing customer acquisition expenses.     

Mortality-Indexed Annuities Managing Longevity Risk Via Product Design

Abstract

Longevity risk has become a major challenge for governments, individuals, and annuity providers in most countries. In its aggregate form, the systematic risk of changes to general mortality patterns, it has the potential for causing large cumulative losses for insurers. Since obvious risk management tools, such as (re)insurance or hedging, are less suited for managing an annuity provider’s exposure to this risk, we propose a type of life annuity with benefits contingent on actual mortality experience.

Similar adaptations to conventional product design exist with investment-linked annuities, and a role model for long-term contracts contingent on actual cost experience can be found in German private health insurance. By effectively sharing systematic longevity risk with policyholders, insurers may avoid cumulative losses.

Policyholders also gain in comparison with a comparable conventional annuity product: Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we identify a significant upside potential for policyholders while downside risk is limited.     

Analysis of Participating Life Insurance Contracts: A Unification Approach

Fair pricing of embedded options in life insurance contracts is usually conducted by using risk‐neutral valuation. This pricing framework assumes a perfect hedging strategy, which insurance companies can hardly pursue in practice. In this article, we extend the risk‐neutral valuation concept with a risk measurement approach. We accomplish this by first calibrating contract parameters that lead to the same market value using risk‐neutral valuation. We then measure the resulting risk assuming that insurers do not follow perfect hedging strategies. As the relevant risk measure, we use lower partial moments, comparing shortfall probability, expected shortfall, and downside variance. We show that even when contracts have the same market value, the insurance company's risk can vary widely, a finding that allows us to identify key risk drivers for participating life insurance contracts.     

Economic Effects of Risk Classification Bans

Risk classification refers to the use of observable characteristics by insurers to group individuals with similar expected claims, to compute the corresponding premiums, and thereby to reduce asymmetric information. Permitting risk classification may reduce informational asymmetry-induced adverse selection and improve insurance market efficiency. It may also have undesirable equity consequences and undermine the implicit insurance against reclassification risk, which legislated restrictions on risk classification could provide. We use a canonical insurance market screening model to survey and to extend the risk classification literature. We provide a unified framework for analysing the economic consequences of legalised vs banned risk classification, both in static-information environments and in environments in which additional information can be learned, by either side of the market, through potentially costly tests.     

Adverse Selection With Frequency and Severity Risk: Alternative Risk‐Sharing Provisions

The analysis considers an insurance market with adverse selection where individuals' loss distributions may differ with respect to both the frequency and severity of loss. We show that the combination of deductibles and coinsurance can be used to sort rationed policyholders. Because of their screening properties, coinsurance and deductibles may both be equilibrium forms of risk sharing for a particular insurer facing asymmetric information, with different rationed consumers choosing different risk‐sharing provisions.     

The Pricing of Insurer Demutualization Initial Public Offerings

This article examines the pricing of the initial public offerings (IPOs) that follow insurance company demutualizations. Insurers that convert from mutual to stock form typically cite the need for capital as a key motivation. Given that capital adequacy is a primary regulatory objective for insurers, one would expect that for a given number of shares to be sold, these firms would price their offerings to maximize proceeds. However, the vast literature on IPO pricing suggests various theories as to why it may be in the issuing firm's best interest to underprice its offering. By examining the initial and long‐run stock returns for these conversion IPOs, the existence and degree of underpricing, as characterized by large initial returns, can be determined. It is observed that on average demutualization insurer IPOs post significantly higher first‐day returns than nondemutualization insurer IPOs. These gains would accrue to the initial investors and to those policyholders who receive compensation in the form of shares in the newly created stock insurer. Attractive returns are sustained for both groups of insurers during the first few years after IPO.