Tracking Distortions in Agriculture: China and Its Accession to the World Trade Organization

This article examines the impacts of China's accession to theWorld Trade Organization (WTO) on prices in its agriculturalsector. The analysis uses a new methodology to estimate nominalprotection rates in China's agricultural sector before its accessionto the WTO. These new measures account for differences in commodityquality within China and between China and world markets. Theanalysis shows that some of China's agricultural commoditiesare well above world market prices and others are well below.The article also assesses market integration and efficiencyin China. It finds high degrees of integration between coastaland inland markets and between regional and village markets.The remarkable improvements in market performance in recentyears mean that if increased imports or exports affect China'sdomestic price near the border, producers throughout most ofChina will feel the price shifts.     

China in the World Trade Organization: Antidumping and Safeguards

China finds itself in a unique situation on antidumping andsafeguard issues. It is by far the main target of antidumpingmeasures, but (so far) one of the smallest users of such measures.China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession protocol includesstringent antidumping and safeguard provisions that its tradingpartners may use against its exports. The article examines threerelated concerns: how quickly large developing economies canbecome intensive users of antidumping measures, an evolutionraising concerns about China's recent antidumping enforcement;how China could minimize its exposure to foreign antidumpingcases, a recipe for both improving trade outcomes and for China'staking a leading role in reforming WTO antidumping; and theopportunities that the Doha Round of trade negotiations offerto China for negotiating stricter disciplines both on WTO contingentprotection and on the use by China's trading partners of thespecial provisions included in China's accession protocol.     

加入WTO对中国商业的影响及对策

<正> 中国商业对外开放的现状分析 中国商业的对外开放,是从1992年7月开始的。当时,国务院决定在北京、上海、天津、广州、大连、青岛6个城市和深圳、珠海、汕头、厦门、海南5个经济特区,各试办一至两个中外合资或合作经营的商业零售企业。经过几年的试点,我国商业对外开放的步伐不断加快。目前,零售业中外合资合作的试点范围已经扩大到所有省会城市、自治区首府、直辖市和计划单列市,并允许在直辖市各试办一家中外合资合作的批发企业,中外合资合作的连锁企业试点数量和范围也允许逐步扩大。     

中国农业:加入WTO的机遇与挑战

<正> 中国农业资源丰富,有用的植物达1万多种,畜禽良种260多个,农业发展情景广阔。但是,中国存在人口增加、耕地     

多元化金融服务的组织模式与进入战略

加入WTO之后,随着外国金融机构的大举进入,我国金融业必将面临激烈的竞争.     

公益性社会组织公信力研究

公益性社会组织公信力是公益性社会组织获得利益相关者和社会公众信任的能力,体现组织与利益相关者和社会公众的互动关系,是公益性社会组织生存和发展的生命线.我国公益性社会组织公信力缺失的原因在于法律和政策管理错位,公益性社会组织欠缺合法性和自主性,内部治理和发展能力不足,缺乏公开性和透明度,外部监督和评估机制不完善,活动偏离公益使命.为此,急需改善公益性社会组织管理的法律和政策环境,强化其信息披露和内部治理,健全社会监督和问责机制.     

The Impact of WTO Accession on China's Insurance Industry

This article provides an overview of China's commitments to the WTO with respect to the insurance sector, along with an analysis of the major issues to be faced by China's insurance industry following WTO accession.     

Trade Preferences to Small Developing Countries and the Welfare Costs of Lost Multilateral Liberalization

The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization overthe last 20 years has raised the question of whether it slowsmultilateral trade liberalization. Recent theoretical and empiricalevidence indicates that this is the case even for unilateralpreferences that developed countries provide to small and poorcountries, but there is no estimate of the resulting welfarecosts. This stumbling block effect can be avoided by replacingthe unilateral preferences with a fixed import subsidy, whichgenerates a Pareto improvement. More importantly, this paperpresents the first estimates of the welfare cost of preferentialliberalization as a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization.Recent estimates of the stumbling block effect of preferenceswith data for 170 countries and more than 5,000 products areused to calculate the welfare effects of the European Union,Japan, and the United States switching from unilateral preferencesfor least developed countries to an import subsidy scheme. Ina model with no dynamic gains to trade, the switch producesan annual net welfare gain for the 170 countries that adds about10 percent to the estimated trade liberalization gains in theDoha Round. It also generates gains for each group: the EuropeanUnion, Japan, and the United States ($2,934 million), leastdeveloped countries ($520 million), and the rest of the world($900 million).     

加入WTO后我国关税政策的演进及其经验启示

加入世界贸易组织（WTO）以来,我国全面履行关税减让承诺,在世贸组织规则范围内,科学、自主地调整关税税率、税目和专项税收优惠政策,有效地发挥关税的宏观调控职能,并积累了丰富的关税调整经验。但是,关税结构仍然存在一些问题,作为大国财政的重要政策工具,未来关税政策调整应该基于更加宏观的视角,不但要考虑经济因素,还要注意政治、社会、文化以及制度等非经济因素,并进一步关注产业发展特点和绿色发展目标等,平衡好国内产业保护与高质量发展的关系。     

中俄两国实现本币结算的影响分析

2010年3月,全国＂两会＂期间公布的＂十二五＂规划纲要明确提出了＂十二五＂期间重点推进长吉图经济区经济发展的要求。长吉图地区毗邻俄罗斯,中国的市场、人力和技术优势与俄罗斯的资源优势相结合,使得两国经济具有很强的互补性,因此,中俄贸易将成为推动长吉图地区发展的重要动力。2010年11月23日,中俄两国总理宣布,双方决定使用本国货币实现双边贸易结算,在这一背景下本文探讨了如何改变两国本币结算额偏低现状、促进两国贸易发展,以及本币结算对两国的影响,并提出了相应建议。     

谈股权分置改革对我国股票市场的影响

股权分置改革是中国股票市场的制度性变革,它打开了桎梏我国资本市场进一步改革开放和稳定发展的枷锁,为我国资本市场的规范发展铺平了道路。文章首先简要介绍了股权分置改革的由来,之后重点论述了股权分置改革对我国股票市场的影响,最后进行了总结。     

中国——东盟自由贸易区的老中贸易效应研究

本文利用引力模型对1990-2009年期间老挝和中国的贸易数据进行分析,考察中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的建立对老挝和中国之间进出口贸易的影响.实证结果表明:CAFTA的建立显著促进了老挝对中国的出口,老挝自中国进口量的增长并不显著.     

我国对外贸易发展环境及政策走向

国际金融危机的爆发使得我国对外贸易乃至国民经济受到了严重冲击。经过各方面共同努力,2010年以来外贸呈现恢复性快速增长的良好态势,其规模均已恢复至金融危机前水平,外贸发展总体形势好于预期。同时也要看到,世界经济进入大危机后的低速增长期,国内要素成本进入集中上升期,外贸发展面临很多不确定因素。因此,必须立足当前,不失时机地推进外贸结构调整,加快外贸发展方式转     

贸易纷争下的中国经济走势与投资机会

2018年的中美贸易纷争以及美联储继续加息,对我国经济的影响偏负面;但劳动生产率上行是我国外贸崛起的根本原因,中美贸易纷争对我国经济的影响有限。从国内来看,依靠房地产和基建投资拉动经济增长不可持续,先进制造业投资增速有望回稳;高端群体收入水平的提高拉动消费升级;高端消费和高端制造业领域有较大投资机会。人口老龄化背景下我国步入存量经济主导时代,并导致行业分化,在此背景下,传统行业龙头仍值得看好,该行业存在结构性投资机会;新兴行业则存在系统性机会。2018年宏观经济政策的把握应坚持"底线思维"与稳中求进。     

The Strange and Futile World of Trade Wars

U.S. President Donald Trump has a misguided, mercantilist view of international trade. He believes that an external (or “trade”) deficit is a “problem,” and that this deficit is caused by foreigners engaging in unfair trade practices. Accordingly, the president and his followers feel that the U.S. is being—and has long been—victimized by foreigners. The reality, however, is that the negative external balance in the U.S. is neither a “problem” nor is it attributable to foreigners engaging in nefarious activities. The U.S.'s negative external balance, which the country has registered every year since 1975, is “made in the USA.” External balances are always and everywhere homegrown; they are the reflection and the result of the relationship between domestic savings and domestic investment. And it is the gap between a country's savings and domestic investment that is the fundamental driver and determinant of its external balance. Specifically, the current account balance, or “trade deficit,” is the sum of the private savings‐investment gap and the public savings‐investment gap, or what is known as the “fiscal balance.” From 1972 until the end of 2018, for example, the cumulative private sector savings‐investment gap in the U.S. was a positive $12.8 trillion; that is, U.S. companies and individuals collectively saved—that is, earned and retained—some $12.8 trillion more than they consumed and invested domestically. But this positive balance was completely overshadowed by the cumulative negative government gap—or cumulative fiscal deficits—of $24.2 trillion during this 47‐year period. And thus the U.S. as a whole experienced a savings‐investment gap of negative $11.4 trillion that is entirely attributable to the country's fiscal deficits. What's more, the fact that the U.S. recorded a cumulative current account deficit of $11.5 trillion during this period confirms that the U.S. external deficits simply mirror what is happening in the U.S. domestic economy, just as the savings‐investment identity suggests. And, of course, the savings‐investment identity holds true for all countries, even those with significant external surpluses. Japan and China have both long experienced savings surpluses, and both have run current account surpluses that have mirrored their positive savings‐investment gaps. If the U.S. mercantilists understood what causes trade and current account deficits, they would direct their ire at profligate government spending rather than at foreigners. But they don't understand. And the leader of the mercantilists, President Trump, is flying blind and presiding over ever‐expanding fiscal deficits—which will only ensure that the current account deficits not just continue, but get bigger.     

构建符合我国国情的家庭福利政策体系研究

目前我国正处于经济、社会和文化急剧变化的现代化进程中,传统的家庭结构、规模、功能已发生了深刻的变化,出现了许多新问题。本文从保障家庭经济安全;支持家庭照顾能力,分担家庭照顾责任;扩展基础性的教育保障,实现区域内教育资源均衡发展等角度出发重构了我国的家庭福利政策体系。     

“营改增”税制改革对银行专营机构及其业务发展的影响分析

2016年5月,金融业纳入"营改增"试点范围以来,税率上升、税基扩大导致银行业的实际税负增加。专家学者也因此对此次税制改革存在争议。本文从不同视角对商业银行的私人银行、信用卡、资金交易和票据等四类专营机构进行了具体剖析,认为"营改增"新政虽然增加了一定的经营成本,但同时也修正了原营业税法中的弊端,统一了市场预期,对部分不合规经营行为起到了遏制作用,有利于专营机构自身经营管理和相关业务领域的进一步规范。此外,本文从专营机构业务类型特殊性角度出发,建议相关部门加快出台补充规定,解决专营机构在落实新政过程中存在的疑惑和困难,将"营改增"新政更好地运用在具体实践中。     

中国清末民初银本位下的汇率浮动:影响和启示

清末民初,银本位下的中国货币对大多数金本位国家的货币汇率自由浮动。浮动汇率并非影响中国国际收支和宏观经济的主要因素:在汇率大体持续贬值情况下,中国贸易逆差不断增大;汇率贬值有利于刺激外商直接投资和侨汇流入,弥补贸易逆差。关键问题是中国货币状况乃至整体经济活动受制于白银数量,容易大起大落。当前中国汇率弹性有待提高,对货币调控造成较大制约。我国汇率浮动早已有之,不必过于担心,中国完全具备主动加快汇率改革的条件。     

国际贸易理论中要素价格均等化条件的扩展

要素价格均等化定理是国际贸易理论中的重要定理。由于有了这个定理从而简化了国际经济中的经济分析,因而讨论要素价格均等化的条件就成为国际贸易论中的一个重要课题。Deardorff(1994)提出了要素价格均等化的一个必要条件,但被证明了他的条件在一般情况下并不是要素价格均等化的充分条件。本文给出了保证要素价格均等化成立的一个充分条件。     

开放条件下我国服务贸易结构性失衡与对策

加入WTO以来,随着服务业开放的保护性安排逐渐结束,我国服务贸易的结构性失衡呈现新的特点:传统服务业仍然维持一定规模贸易顺差,新兴服务业如金融、电信、信息、咨询等行业的贸易逆差增大。在新的开放条件下,服务贸易发展面临来自外国服务提供者的激烈竞争和挑战。笔者认为,我国服务贸易失衡是服务业竞争劣势的集中体现,有必要通过技术、管理和制度创新增强服务业竞争优势,同时要有效运用国际惯例和国内法律规范维护我国服务产业安全和服务贸易利益。