破解转口贸易政策盲点 防范国际热钱借道流入——基于陕西省转口贸易企业的数据研究

转口贸易因其货物流与资金流不匹配的特点使其可能成为＂热钱＂流入的主要渠道,本文通过对陕西省典型转口贸易企业运作模式的分析,提出相应的政策建议。     

望闻问切诊测货物贸易项下真实性

货物贸易项下正常的跨境资金流动应当表现为海关“物流”与国际收支统计“资金流”的匹配。按照“钱货两清”的基本交易原则，全国或者某个地区在一定时期内发生的商品跨境流动，应该与相关资金的跨境流动相对应。具体到经济个体，一些特殊的货物进出口单位可能会存在周期性、经常性的不匹配现象，但大多数进出口单位的“物流”与“资金流”应该是匹配的。因此，可以设立海关“物流”与外汇局“资金流”动态对比指标体系，通过观察指标值的绝对数和相对变化情况，达到对全国、某个地区或者进出口个体单位“物流”与“资金流”的匹配情况进行动态监测并及时发现异常现象的目的。     

“双抬头”进口报关单核销存在的问题及建议

新外汇管理条例第十二条明确规定"经常项目外汇收支应当具有真实、合法的交易基础,金融机构对交易单证的真实性及其外汇收支的一致性进行合理审查",这就对代表货物流的交易单证与其资金流匹配性管理提出了     

贸易融资外汇管理问答

Q:企业开展贸易融资业务,会对货物贸易监测指标造成哪些影响?A:根据《货物贸易外汇管理指引》及其实施细则,当前外汇局对企业的货物贸易监测以总量监测指标为主,综合考虑企业12个月时长内货物流与资金流的匹配状况。理论上凡是导致货物流与资金流在时间上错配的行为,都会影响部分监测指标。对于贸易融资而言,在企业进出口的同时,如果办理贸易融资后导致企业提前或延迟收付货款,则会影响监测指标。反之不然。以进口为例。     

当前影响货物流与资金流匹配度的几个因素

2012年8月货物贸易外汇管理改革后,货物贸易外汇管理由逐笔核销变为总量核查.外汇管理局廊坊市中心支局通过货物贸易监测系统对企业货物流与资金流进行监测归纳出当前影响货物流与资金流匹配度的几个因素,以供参考.     

贸易信贷“高气压”

从长期来看,真实贸易背景下的贸易信贷和贸易融资对于储备、跨境外汇收支并不会产生太大影响。但从短期来看,在人民币升值预期强烈的背景下,增加当期外汇收入、减少当期外汇支出的贸易信贷和贸易融资类业务,必然会对当前的人民币汇率产生较大的升值压力,特别是大量增加的预收货款和延期付款。此外,贸易信贷类业务也进一步加剧了跨境货物流与资金流的不匹配现象,加大了外汇局对于贸易真实性审核的难度。     

内蒙古自治区货物贸易资金跨境流动与贸易融资情况调查

本文基于内蒙古自治区贸易外汇收支与进出口货物数据匹配情况,对＂资金流＂与＂货物流＂制品规模、变化趋势等因素进行了深入分析。指出在人民币汇率预警升值背景下,我区企业资金缺口变化与银行贸易融资、企业贸易信贷之间高度相关,贸易项下异常资金流入形式主要为进口延期付汇、不付汇,并有针对性地提出相关解决意见和建议。     

关于贸易收汇和贸易出口真实性与一致性的研究

贸易收支是异常资金流入与流出的重要渠道之一,异常资金流动会导致贸易收汇和贸易出口所对应的资金流与货物流之间的匹配出现偏差。本研究探索了有关贸易收汇和贸易出口真实性与一致性非现场监测的非参数分析方法,并利用此方法对江苏省2007年贸易收汇和贸易出口之间真实性和一致性的情况进行了实证分析。     

宜完善贸易信贷统计制度

在现行的贸易信贷统计制度下,区域进出口货物流与资金流出现偏离,两者差额与实际贸易信贷规模不相匹配,不能反映出贸易信贷对货物流与资金流偏离程度的影响。从企业个案来看,贸易信贷统计制度存在的贸易信贷数据统计口径差异及贸易融资数据获取可得性低、准确性不高,是导致上述情况的主要原因,亟需完善。     

关注B类企业套取融资现象

为贯彻落实《国家外汇管理局关于完善银行贸易融资业务外汇管理有关问题的通知》的精神。外汇局在全国范围内对货物贸易项下资金流与货物流严重不匹配或转口贸易收支规模大且增长快、远期贸易融资规模较大且比例偏高、具有跨境融资套利交易典型特征的企业开展了专项核查。     

Information flow and price discovery dynamics

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Non-homogeneous and time-varying information flow that affects the price discovery processes within and across markets is a common occurrence in...     

ESG activities and firm cash flow

I measure the influence of ESG activities on Free Cash flow to the Firm and Free Cash Flow to Equity. I find that ESG activities primarily benefit the cash flows to creditors of firms in developed markets. The ESG effect predominantly comes from the excess spending of the firm on communicating how it integrates the economic (financial), social and environmental dimensions into its day-to-day decision-making processes. For developed market firms, the additional factor of excess spending on conditions for the workforce plays a role in boosting Free Cash Flow to the Firm.     

Concentrating on q and cash flow

Investment spending by US public firms is highly concentrated. The 100 largest spenders account for 60% of total capital expenditures and drive most of the variation in aggregate investment. This high concentration creates a disconnect between the average public firm and macroeconomic aggregates. For large firms, cash flow remains the primary driver of investment spending and has not declined in importance as it has for smaller public firms. The cash flowing to big spenders provides a better forecast of future investment opportunities than noisy proxies for Tobin's q even though these firms are not financially constrained. These results suggest that, at least for the largest spenders, it is unlikely that measurement error drives the significance of cash flow. Our results are also inconsistent with recent models that predict higher investment-cash flow sensitivity for small young growth firms and suggest that cash flow is still the most important determinant of macroeconomic fluctuations in investment spending.     

江龙控股危机调研

在中国资本市场，江龙控股是一个江湖传说：从创建到成为行业龙头企业，拥有“中国印染第一股”，用了四年多时间；然而，从风光无限到轰然倒塌，却只用了短短一年。     

Pulmonary flow loop

Pulmonary flow loops display characteristic patterns and give clues to the underlying pathology of airway or parenchymal lung disease.     

Pulmonary flow loop

Pulmonary flow loops display characteric patterns which may indicate the underlying pathology of airway or parenchymal lung disease.     

智能化资金管理

2010年上半年,银监会正式颁布了“三个办法一个指引”（包括《流动资金贷款管理暂行办法》、《个人贷款管理暂行办法》、《固定资产贷款管理暂行办法》和《项目融资业务指引》,以下统称为“贷款新规”）。贷款新规的出台,使商业银行对于企业“挪用信贷资金,转用其他投资”的做法有了一道法律的保护屏障。剖析贷款新规,复杂、规范化的程序对银行而言,     

Overnight information flow and realized volatility forecasting

This study compares various approaches for incorporating the overnight information flow for forecasting realized volatility of the Australian index ASX 200 and seven very liquid Australian shares from March 2007 to January 2014. The analysis shows that considering overnight information separately rather than adding it to the daily realized volatility estimates leads consistently to better out-of-sample results despite the higher number of involved parameters. A novel, very promising approach is to combine the assets’ own overnight returns with realized volatility estimates of related assets from other markets for which intraday data is available while the Australian exchange is closed.     

Mutual fund portfolio trading and investor flow

I estimate the extent to which mutual fund portfolio trading of securities is triggered by investor flows into and out of the funds, and find that this liquidity-induced portfolio trading activity is smaller than previously estimated by Edelen (1999). I obtain estimates from a much larger and broader sample of funds than Edelen’s (1999) sample. Portfolio managers of international funds trade a smaller fraction of investor flow than do those of domestic funds. Index funds invest a larger fraction. A funds’ usage of futures contracts does not have a statistically significant effect on how it trades in response to investor flows, but the unpredictability of investor flow weakly affects the trading response to flow.