综合国家距离对中国入境旅游的影响——基于CAGE距离框架的实证研究

入境旅游在旅游发展中具有重要战略地位,而我国入境旅游发展相对滞后,甚至影响到我国服务贸易的高质量发展。旅游具有异地性特征,现有研究往往从文化距离、行政距离、地理距离或经济距离等单一距离开展研究。然而,多种距离同时影响游客决策,单一距离模型降低了距离因素的解释力,同时纳入模型又会造成共线性问题,导致现有研究结论间存在矛盾,阻碍理论发展与应用。Ghemawat提出的国家距离框架基于多种距离形成评价总体国家距离的综合国家距离,得到普遍认可。文章基于国家距离框架,整合来自世界银行数据库、霍夫斯泰德文化维度官方数据、双边地理距离数据库、世界经济论坛等相关数据,形成2006—2018年我国55个客源国入境旅游的平衡面板数据,系统分析了综合国家距离对入境游客量的主效应、非线性影响,以及客源国互联网使用率的调节作用,得到如下结论:(1)综合国家距离是影响我国入境游客量的显著变量,距离对入境游的影响是文化距离、行政距离、地理距离和经济距离的复合效应;(2)综合国家距离与入境游客量之间呈正U形关系,综合国家距离可以是入境旅游的阻碍因素,也可以是促进因素,入境游客量随着综合国家距离增加而先减少后增加;(3)客源国互联网使用率没有弱化综合国家距离的影响,反而产生极化作用,极化了综合国家距离在拐点左侧的负影响和在拐点右侧的正影响。以上发现的主要价值为:(1)增进了对距离因素在国际旅游中作用的理解,提出影响入境游客量的综合国家距离变量;(2)识别出综合国家距离与入境游客量呈现正U形关系,证实综合国家距离是细分客源国市场的新变量;(3)揭示出客源国互联网使用率对综合国家距离产生的极化效应,突出了我国采用互联网传播目的地形象的必要性和重要性。     

宏观经济波动对我国入境旅游发展的影响分析

文章以分析1995～ 2011年我国宏观经济波动和入境旅游波动的周期性特征为基础,建立包含入境旅游波动、宏观经济波动、汇率变动和居民消费者价格指数变动等变量在内的向量自回归模型,检验了入境旅游波动对于宏观经济波动、汇率变动和通货膨胀的反应,进一步采用分位数回归方法研究了宏观经济波动等因素对入境旅游发展的影响.结果表明:(1) 1995 ～ 2011年以来,我国宏观经济波动的主周期长度为6年,入境旅游收入波动的主周期长度为2.57年,入境旅游呈现较短的主周期;(2)宏观经济波动和汇率变动对入境旅游发展具有显著的影响,而通货膨胀的影响作用有限;(3)在入境旅游波动的不同水平下,宏观经济波动和汇率变动对入境旅游发展的影响力度存在明显差异,其中包含了更丰富的信息.     

新疆入境旅游经济区域差异及影响因素解析

在当前环境下新疆的经济也在快速的发展当中,而且新疆的入境旅游经济也促进提升了新疆的经济体系。但因旅游设施、旅游资源的赋存以及经济发展等多方面因素存在参与性表现,这使得新疆入境旅游经济也呈现出比较明显的差异性表现。文章就在通过对当前新疆入境旅游经济区域的差异以及影响因素进行全面分析,并制定完善新疆入境旅游区域差异的策略,实现新疆入境旅游业区域的协调稳定发展,为新疆经济的长远发展奠定坚实基础。     

中国省际入境旅游发展影响因素研究——基于分省面板数据分析

本文基于1997-2006年我国31个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,用固定影响变截距模型,实证研究了决定省际入境旅游发展状况(收入与市场)的因素.结果表明:省际入境旅游有明显的脆弱性,其强度依东、中、西顺序梯度增大;服务设施对入境旅游的发展影响不显著,旅游资源是发展入境旅游的客观基础;在全国范围内,入境旅游发展的决定因素是省区经济、对外开放、交通设施,而在东中西部区域层次上,省际入境旅游的决定因素不相同.     

中国和印度入境旅游发展比较

印度是亚太地区旅游业发展最快的国家之一.本文对中国大陆和印度近年来入境旅游的发展水平进行比较研究,重点从两国的旅游基础设施状况、入境旅游宣传和干扰入境旅游的异常因素等方面进行分析,提出应该重视印度入境旅游发展趋势、借鉴印度经验改进中国旅游国际市场营销策略、加强两国旅游业交流与合作等一系列建议,以应对印度入境旅游快速发展的局面.     

中国外国游客入境旅游市场景气指数的编制与应用

旅游业不仅是高增长产业,也是高波动产业.为准确描述中国入境旅游市场的周期性波动,提高行业监测与预警能力,本文以外国游客入境旅游市场为研究对象,根据中国外国游客客源国结构,从中国及主要外国游客客源国和世界宏观经济数据中选择了先行、一致和滞后指标,应用HP滤波方法构建了中国基于增长循环的外国游客入境旅游市场合成景气指数(CI),并分析了不同周期的主要成因.研究证明,与成熟旅游国家相比,中国的外国游客入境旅游市场影响因素有较大的区别,来华旅游外国游客有相当比例有公务目的,此外,突发因素的随机冲击对我国入境旅游市场景气周期的影响显著,应引起行业经营与管理人员的高度重视.     

上海市入境旅游市场影响因素分析与预测——以德国、法国、英国、美国与泰国客源国为例

入境旅游是衡量一个国家知名度、影响力和旅游发展水平的主要因素,也是赚取外汇和旅游收入的重要路径。上海是外国游客入境重要的目的地,也是中国最大的入境游客中转站。文章分析了德国、法国、英国、美国、泰国五个上海主要入境旅游客源国2004年第一季度至2018年第三季度的数据,运用计量经济学方法建模,并实证分析了上海入境旅游需求的影响因素。研究表明,口碑效应、客源地的收入水平与上海入境旅游需求正相关;上海入境旅游具有较大的季节波动特点,冬夏两季入境游客数量减少;世博会对上海入境旅游拉动作用较大。同时,对德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年的旅游季度需求进行了预测,预测发现,德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年都有较大增长,特别是泰国市场的年均增长率达到4%。     

出境旅游、服务贸易与经济发展水平关系的国际比较

出境旅游是经济发展到一定阶段的必然产物.但当前学术界关于出境旅游的发展对服务贸易的影响存在争议.利用44个主要旅游国家与地区的面板数据,本文发现出境旅游率随人均GDP呈指数上升,整体上看我国还远没有到出境旅游爆发增长的阶段;由于出境旅游与人口规模负相关的大国效应影响,我国出境旅游长期将自动保持在一个温和的范围内.根据趋势分析本文还发现,出境旅游的增长速度将会高于入境旅游的增长速度,期望通过入境旅游的进一步增长弥补出境旅游的外汇与消费漏出缺乏国际经验的支持.根据对33个国家和地区截面数据的分析.本文发现随着经济发展水平的提高,对外贸易中入境旅游地位下降与出境旅游地位的上升是国际普遍规律,这不仅反映了国民生活水准的提高,也是产业结构升级与外贸结构优化的体现.为此担忧、采取行动阻碍是没有必要的,甚至可能是错误的.     

外向在线旅游信息流与入境旅游流的耦合分析——以美加入境旅游流为例

随着互联网在旅游中的应用不断增多,很多旅游目的地逐渐重视网络营销,以期吸引更多的游客。为了探讨区域旅游流对在线旅游信息的响应,文章提出了外向在线旅游信息流概念,并以美国和加拿大的15大旅游网站作为研究样本,通过文本挖掘方法,测度出了中国城市的外向在线旅游信息指数。通过统计数据分析美加来华游客入境旅游流偏好值,探讨我国城市外向在线旅游信息流与入境旅游流之间的耦合关系。研究发现,外向在线旅游信息流指数较高的中国城市在国际上都有较高的知名度,且旅游资源禀赋高;美加来华旅游者主要集中前往中国东部地区;我国城市外向在线旅游信息流与入境旅游流之间的耦合关系表现出4种形态。结果表明,由于经济发展水平、对外开放程度等因素的影响,外向在线旅游信息流与入境旅游流之间并非直接的对应关系。     

中国省域入境旅游发展的空间计量建模与影响因素效应研究

空间计量模型在旅游研究中已得到有效应用,解决了旅游产业发展中的一些实际问题,但还需进一步改进与完善。文章以中国省域入境旅游发展为着眼点,增设扩散转移矩阵为模型因变量滞后的空间权重矩阵,以反映入境旅游在中国省域之间的客流人数扩散转移实际情况,同时从最为全面的广义嵌套空间模型入手,引入旅游研究空间计量模型系统,并以区域入境旅游发展影响因素为模型自变量,构建了入境旅游发展的最优空间计量模型,最后对模型显著自变量的直接效应、溢出效应、总效应进行评估分析,给出区域入境旅游发展建议。结果显示:模型自变量出现显著消极效应的影响因素几乎为酒店供应,加强旅游资源建设和经济水平发展始终是入境旅游发展的重要途径,而开放程度已对东部省域的影响较为微弱,对中部和西部省域则起到很好的积极效应,同时交通设施在中部省域呈现出非常强劲的溢出效应。     

The consequences of forty years of tourism growth

Leisure travel has become a major lifestyle in the United States since World War II. This paper describes the social, economic, and technological changes that have been adopted by the industry and society during three eras of travel evolution. A synoptic view of the development of travel is provided by a review of five travel industry components: transportation, attractions, facilities and services, information, and the consumer. Emphasis is placed on the consequences of the adoption of major social and technological innovations that have impacted this vibrant industry and will continue to do so in the future. The paper concludes with eight observations on the present and future status of leisure travel in the United States.     

The perceived impact of tourism by residents a case study in Santa Marta,Colombia

Studies of the local population's perception of tourism impact are useful in setting up programs to minimize friction between tourists and residents, and in formulating plans to gain resident support of tourist ventures. This study identifies the positive and negative aspects of tourism as perceived by the Santa Marta residents, and the influence of selected variables on resident response. It is hypothesized that the perception of tourist impact varies with the distance a person lives from the tourist zone and with the resident's socio-economic status. It is found that despite the perception of some serious negative aspects, Santa Marta residents consider the overall impact of tourism to be beneficial. They want their government to offer more economic incentives and eliminate any restrictive measures in order to stimulate tourism in the area. The positive attitudes of the Santa Marta residents toward tourism may be a function of the incipient stage of tourism development in this area.     

A tourist space-time budget in the Shetland Islands

This paper addresses the need to better understand tourist pressure in selected regions of the Shetland Islands, United Kingdom, using measures of space, time, perception, region, and core-periphery. Normally an economic theory, core-periphery was applied in the context of this study as a locational and mental construct in examining tourism group movement (behavior). Respondents were placed into two groups on the basis of their activitybased motivations for visiting Shetland and asked to complete a daily space-time budget regarding their use of attractions, facilities, accommodation, and transportation. It was discovered that both groups differed marginally in their space-time use of the aforementioned variables within the various regions of Shetland.     

The failure of ‘control’ in the hospitality industry

This paper explores the relationship between the literature on the issue of control and the realities of the hospitality industry. Management control is related to the unsanctioned entrepreneurial activities of operatives (illustrated by the ‘taxi scam’), the failure of computer systems used to control operatives, and the failure of the hospitality industry to exploit the potential of the new technology. The paper suggests that management's (and a significant part of the literature in this area) failure within hospitality is linked to the perception of the role of the hospitality manager as one of policing the industry.     

Discrimination in public recreation: Attitudes toward and participation of females

Historically, women have been discriminated against in a number of ways. In recreation, the same is true. This study, carried out among Ontario recreation administrators, reveals male‐female differences in wages, responsibility, participation and programs. A number of alternatives and suggestions for change, including both legislation and economic sanction, are given in the report, along with a number of possible directions for future research.     

IMPACT OF AN ECONOMIC CRISIS Evidence from Turkey

This paper evaluates the impact of the 2001 economic crisis on the tourism industry in Turkey. The research findings reveal that neither the government nor private organizations had any plans for dealing with the crisis before or after the event. It had both negative and positive impacts although its benefits were often overlooked. The overall implication of the study is that national culture, the level of economic development of a country, the availability of financial resources, and the ability and knowledge of its government officials and managers of private firms have a direct impact on how such an event is responded to and managed.     

Serious pilgrims and frivolous tourists the chimera of tourism in the pilgrimages of Sri Lanka

Two important and recently developed currents of pilgrimage in Sri Lanka—the appearance at certain sites of fun-loving and raucous Sinhalese youths, and at others of wealthy Tamil Hindus interested in temple architecture—would appear to be well explained by the concept of tourism. On closer inspection, however, this appearance can be shown to be illusory and to disguise the real meaning of these behaviors within indigenous Sri Lankan modalities of pilgrimage. The paper explores the meaning and utility of the terms “tourism” and “pilgrimage,” and concludes by offering a more useful definition of them than the ones our language persuades us to employ.     

Hosts, guests and politics: Coastal Resorts Morphological Change

Resort morphology goes through a predictable sequence of stages: from pre-tourism low through high-density development to an urbanized state. Three elements are considered essential in such coastal resorts change: hosts, guests, and politics. Using historical data from the mass-developed Greek island of Crete, ten principal characteristics are identified as determinants of the morphological change of coastal resorts. A temporal model of unplanned change is also proposed. Although the study was constrained by limited data availability, the proposed model is deemed able to represent the morphological change of Cretan mass-developed coastal resorts.     

Politics and tourism interface: The Case of Cyprus

The Cyprus tourism industry has had to be sensitive to the political problems between Turkish and Greek Cypriots. Federation is considered to be a partial solution to the problems. This paper evaluates the influence of politics and nationalism on the tourism planning and development under a possible federal constitution. The views of Turkish and Greek Cypriot participants from private and public organizations are studied through semistructured interviews. The findings suggest that any future planning and development is likely to be a complex undertaking, as the two societies tend to have different sets of objectives and expectations.     

Towards Strategic Intent: Perceptions of disability service provision amongst hotel accommodation managers

The tourism sector globally has become increasingly mindful of how an ageing population is reshaping service provision forms and offerings. This being particularly true of accommodation operations where there is a now a growing recognition of the commercial value for providing market groups with exceptional service. With this in mind, this study sought to ascertain the perceptions of managers in the accommodation sector towards disability service provision with a view to identifying any current service gaps or failings. An inductive, qualitative approach was used with the data collection phase incorporating a series of one on one interviews and a focus group. The in-depth interviews were conducted with 10 managers of hotels deemed to have accessible rooms that complied with the relevant building codes and standards. A focus group comprised 22 managers of hotels located in the Sydney central business district, Australia. Study findings revealed five key themes that had not been previously discussed in the literature. They were: inclusive attitudinal approach; safety; the responsibility of people with a disability to communicate their needs to the hotel; perceptions of accessible rooms by the general public; and operational processes. Related themes that emerged from the data analysis that had previously been aligned with the literature included: legislative responsibility, policy and building codes; disability as a market segment; staff awareness/training; and language, marketing, and promotion information. Implications with respect to management of accessible rooms in the accommodation sector are outlined and further areas of research are proposed.