旅游经济增长点分析——基于“黄金周”效应的实证

在旅游经济研究当中,"黄金周"效应一直是学者们关注和争论的议题.研究者们在肯定"黄金周"对我国旅游经济发展积极作用的同时,也从不同角度对日益凸显的负面影响问题进行了分析.本文试图变换视角,以证券市场旅游酒店板块上市公司为研究对象,采用事件研究法,对"黄金周"前后公司股票收益率变化情况进行分析,从上市公司的价值变化和市场投资者角度审视"黄金周"实施对旅游经济增长点的经济效果.实证结果表明:"黄金周"事件对旅游酒店板块上市公司价值增长有短期正面效应,在一定程度上能够推动旅游经济的增长,但从长期和总体来看,负面效应更加明显,说明已有"黄金周"制度安排不利于旅游市场的可持续发展.本文研究结论同时支持了<全国年节及纪念日放假方法>修订的及时性和现实意义.     

社会交往、旅游情境对旅游需求的影响研究--基于春节“黄金周”的实证分析

以往关于消费者需求行为的研究多基于传统经济学框架的设定展开，认为影响消费者旅游需求的主要因素包含收入、目的地吸引力、交通等，普遍忽视了消费过程中的社会交往和具体情境。文章在理论分析的基础上，提出了若干命题，将消费者收入、社会交往和旅游情境等因素纳入旅游消费者需求的模型中，提出了若干研究命题。依据2014年春节“黄金周”旅游需求调研数据，采用排序选择模型验证了相关命题的正确性。计量结果表明，个人经济因素对我国消费者春节“黄金周”旅游需求影响较小，家庭结构、同伴等社会交往因素是影响其旅游需求的重要因素；我国消费者对于春节“黄金周”出游过程中遭遇的拥堵、旅游市场混乱等旅游情境问题具有一定的容忍度，但是，严重供需失衡导致的旅游情境问题依然对其旅游需求产生了显著的影响。     

中国旅游全要素生产率差异与收敛实证研究

本文利用非参数DEA—Malmquist指数方法测算了2001～2009年中国省际旅游全要素生产率,并进行生产率指数分解,对中国旅游全要素生产率时序变化和区域差异进行了分析,之后又利用经济增长收敛理论对中国旅游全要素生产率进行了盯和口收敛性检验。实证研究结果表明,中国旅游全要素生产率年均增长12．7％,其中,技术进步创新率为6．7％,技术效率增长5．6％,技术进步是中国旅游全要素生产率增长的主要源泉;中国旅游全要素生产率存在显著的时空差异性;中国旅游全要素生产率并不存在显著矿收敛和条件18收敛,但存在显著绝对卢收敛,说明中国各地区旅游全要素生产率差距正在逐步缩小,最终收敛于相同的稳态均衡水平,然而由于中国旅游业发展尚未达到成熟阶段,所以现阶段中国旅游全要素生产率增长尚未找到自身合适的条件收敛路径。     

Citizens' Representations of China's Golden Weeks

For over a decade Chinese tourism policy has constrained the holiday periods for its citizens to a limited number of well-defined Golden Weeks. This study explores the representations of 450 Chinese residents from five popular tourist regions in these holiday periods. The study is embedded in the framework of social representations theory underpinned by an emic approach to this topical issue. More specifically, the researchers employed an open-ended survey in Mandarin, eliciting the perceived advantages and disadvantages of the structured holiday periods. Many positive features of each individual Golden Week were identified, while some problems resulting from congestion were also highlighted. A common and hegemonic social representation was revealed and presented using the treemaps approach. A range of key managerial interventions are required for improving the periods as travel opportunities both within and outside China.     

The determinants of the 1999 and 2007 Chinese Golden Holiday System: A content analysis of official documentation

This study examines the factors that lay behind the development of the Golden Week holiday system in China in 1999 and 2007. It does so by evaluating three dimensions, namely (a) dominant government policy, (b) the pattern of tourism demand and (c) the degree of public participation in the policy making process. Both quantitative and qualitative methodologies are used in a content analysis of 45 related documents. The results indicate that while little relationship existed between the demands of tourism and public policy in both 1999 and 2007, the requirements of social policies and a greater role being attributed to public participation in the policy making were more emphasized in 2007. The theoretical contributions and practical implications of this study are also addressed.     

新休假制度对“黄金周”旅游客流的影响及其政策意义——来自国家假日办重点监测景区的证据

关于新体假制度对旅游客流产生影响的推测,人们众说纷纭,实际运行中产生的问题也不断见诸新闻报道,但目前尚缺乏学术上严格的实证.利用国家假日办106个重点监测景区连续4年的数据,文章研究发现:(1)"五一"黄金用被缩短为3天,但其景区荷载率与往年相比并无变化;(2)"五一"黄金周的缩短,使被抑制的远程旅游需求在国庆黄金周释放出来.造成2008年国庆黄金周景区荷载率达到新的高峰值;(3)通过缩短"五一"大长假,增加3个小长假,平抑国庆黄金周长假出游高峰的预期目标没有达到.结合研究结论.文章认为应该恢复"五一"长假并与"带薪假期"共同存在,形成互补,以利于满足居民对长距离旅游的固有需求,也有利于减少集中出游产生的负面影响.     

The effect of tourism investment on tourism development and CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from the EU nations

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of tourism investment on tourism development and CO₂ emissions in a panel of 28 EU countries using annual data from 1990 to 2013. The empirical results from a panel cointegration test confirm the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The long-run elasticities indicate that tourism investment has a significant positive and negative impact on tourism development and CO₂ emissions, respectively. Finally, the short-run heterogeneous panel non-causality test results show the evidence of bidirectional causality between tourism investment and tourism revenue. These results therefore suggest that tourism investments not only increase tourism revenue but also reduce CO₂ emissions. Given these findings, we suggest the policy makers of the EU nations to initiate more effective policies to increase the tourism investments. The increasing tourism investments will allow the industry to grow further by ensuring sustainable tourism development across the EU member countries.     

A comparison of the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the economic development for islands and other countries

Tourism is usually one of the top industries in most countries, especially islands. However, there is some question as to whether there is a negative potential impact if a country relies too much on tourism as a means of economic development to the detriment of other industries such as manufacturing and agriculture. The purpose of this paper is to examine the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for regular countries and island economies, including “small island developing states” (SIDS). This study uses quantile regression on panel data from the WDI database from 1995 through 2014 for all of the countries that report tourism and economic data. The findings demonstrate that tourism reliance does have a moderating effect on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for all countries, but mainly at higher levels of economic development.     

Shifting patterns and determinants of Asia-pacific tourism to Australia, 1990–2010

Australia is an increasingly important international holiday destination. Especially travel demand from Asia-Pacific countries has increased, which has led Australian policy-makers to believe the Asia-Pacific region will remain the largest growth market for holiday tourists. This article first presents an overview of the evolution and shifting geographical patterns of Asia-Pacific tourism to Australia between 1990 and 2010, and relies on this to explore the major determinants underlying these changes using a bootstrapped loglinear multiple regression analysis. Results indicate that income (GDP per capita) remains the most important factor explaining tourism demand, albeit that the Australian holiday market is becoming increasingly mature. Distance, as a proxy for travel costs, has large negative elasticity that has slightly increased over time as the effects of air transport liberalization have been off-set by oil prices’. The paper is concluded with an outlook on some possible opportunities and challenges for future tourism demand to Australia.     

Investigating the tourism and economic growth linkage: a panel causality analysis for the SAARC countries

Tourism receipts and expenditure are considered to be causally related to economic growth. The present study investigates the causal relationship between tourism receipts and tourism expenditure to economic growth for a panel of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries over a 20-year period (1995–2014). The present study used panel Granger causality tests and panel fully modified ordinary least squares to test the presence and magnitude of the causality. Results indicated a bidirectional causal linkage between growth and tourism expenditure only, while tourism receipts were found to influence growth. Tourism expenditure was found to have a negative effect on growth.     

中国环境规制对旅游业碳排放绩效的影响

在碳达峰、碳中和的时代背景下,合理设置环境规制强度,提高旅游业碳排放绩效对于实现旅游业高质量发展具有重要意义。基于2001—2019年中国省际面板数据,利用Super-SBM和熵值法分别测度旅游业碳排放绩效及环境规制强度,并进一步运用面板固定效应模型和面板门槛模型探讨环境规制对旅游业碳排放绩效的影响。结果表明：（1）研究期内,中国旅游业碳排放绩效整体呈缓慢上升趋势,东部地区呈波动变化趋势,中部地区处于较低水平但始终呈稳定上升态势,西部地区增长最快;中国环境规制整体强度同样呈增长态势,且表现出"东部>西部>中部"的空间分布格局。（2）环境规制与旅游业碳排放绩效之间存在先促进后抑制的"倒U"型关系,当前中国环境规制整体强度处于拐点之前。以技术创新为门槛变量,发现环境规制对旅游业碳排放绩效具有显著的技术创新双门槛效应。（3）东部、中部和西部均存在技术创新单一门槛效应。在科技创新水平的影响下,东部地区环境规制对旅游业碳排放绩效的促进作用实现飞跃;西部地区科技创新水平较低时,环境规制阻滞旅游业碳排放绩效提升;当科技创新跨过门槛后,环境规制有助于旅游业碳排放绩效提高;中部地区环境规制则始终抑制旅游业碳排放绩效增长。     

Does tourism affect the informal sector?

The effect of tourism on economic growth has largely been investigated in the literature. However, it is still poorly understood about how the impact of tourism on the size of the informal economy. The present study attempts to fill the research gaps in this field, and thus applies panel regression techniques to examine the relationship between tourism development and the size of the underground economy across 96 countries over the period 2000–2007. The estimation results show that tourism exhibits a U-shaped relation with informality. Specifically, the share of informal sector first decreases in the early stages of tourism development and then increases as tourism continues. Some policy implications, limitations, and future research directions are also discussed.     

Sociocultural dimensions of tourism history

This paper explores some of the sociocultural issues that surround tourism history. It is contended that tourist activity is socially differentiated, but that this is by no means solely a product of prevailing class and related structural constraints. Instead, importance must be attached to the cultural setting within which activity is located and to the role of the consumer in creating new opportunities. Two case studies — plotland development and holiday camps — are used to demonstrate the thesis. Conclusions are drawn in respect of the study of tourism history, arguing for interdisciplinarity, for comparative research, and for further work on the inter-relationships between societal constraints and individual opportunities.     

Sustainability indicators for managing community tourism

The purpose of this study is to develop indicators to measure community tourism development (CTD) within a sustainable framework. In order to develop such objective indicators, this study employed a modified Delphi technique. A panel of 38 academic researchers in tourism provided input into developing the indicators. After three rounds of discussion, the panel members reached consensus on the following set of 125 indicators: political (32), social (28), ecological (25), economic (24), technological (3), and cultural dimensions (13) for CTD. This set of sustainable tourism indicators can serve as a starting-point for devising a set of indicators at the local and regional level. Further study shall develop a set of sustainable indicators relying on communities’ distinctive characteristics and employing indicator experts from the social and physical sciences and from all stakeholder groups, including residents of the host community, industry experts, government planners, policy-makers and non-governmental organizations [United Nations (2001). Managing sustainable tourism development: ESCAP tourism review, No. 22. New York, NY: UN].     

Holiday recovery experiences,tourism satisfaction and life satisfaction – Is there a relationship?

This research examines the relationships between holiday recovery experiences and life satisfaction through mediating variables of tourism satisfaction. Derived from a sample of 777 American respondents, it was found that individuals who were able to control what they want to do, feel relaxed and detached from work, and have new and challenging experiences during a holiday vacation were more likely to be satisfied with their holiday experiences and their life in general. The paper concludes with recommendations for the success of tourism businesses as well as the enhancement of tourists' senses of well-being.     

Bibliometric studies in tourism

This study evaluates bibliometric studies in tourism, depicts emerging themes, and offers critical discussions for theory development and future research. To achieve this aim, 190 papers with bibliometric analyses from leading hospitality and tourism journals were selected and critically analyzed. The research findings reveal that bibliometric articles published in these journals significantly increased after 2008. However, systematic review studies emerged as the major group, and relatively few studies utilized evaluative bibliometric and relational bibliometric studies. Study results suggest that paucity still exists, particularly in relational bibliometric studies in tourism. This is one of the first studies in this area that offers critical discussions and suggestions related to theory development and future research in this research vein.     

Higher tourism specialization,better hotel industry efficiency?

This study examines the effects of both specialization in tourism and market competition on the efficiency of the hotel industry. For this purpose, stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) was employed to evaluate the efficiency of the hotel industry on a provincial level in China and to analyze how it is impacted by specialization in tourism and market competition. The results confirm that tourism specialization and market competition exert a synergistic effect on hotel industry efficiency in China. This study finds that tourism development as represented by a high level of tourism specialization by a destination does not guarantee high efficiency in hotels but does enhance the negative effect of market competition on hotel industry efficiency. Significant policy and managerial implications stem from these findings.     

Publish and perish? Bibliometric analysis,journal ranking and the assessment of research quality in tourism

Bibliometric analysis is important in tourism as a result of external evaluation of research quality, interest in impact and prestige factors, and study of the field’s development. Although bibliometric analysis can be applied to any type of publication the main focus is on journals. Five approaches to the evaluation of journal quality are identified: stated preference, citation-based, derived, hybrid, and expert panels. Different productivity, impact and hybrid metrics are used to identify rankings of tourism journals from Scopus/SCImago data, compared with a derived RAE ranking, and three expert panel rankings. The different rankings reinforces that bibliometric understanding of scientific impact is a multi-dimensional construct. However, bibliometric analysis does not occur in an institutional and policy vacuum. The institutional context of government and private organization evaluations of research quality increasingly determine which metrics are applied, with subsequent effects on performance evaluation, career development and future direction of tourism studies.     

International tourism and economic growth in Africa: A post-global financial crisis analysis

Unlike the extant literature, this study revisited the tourism-growth relationship in Africa and accounted for the moderating effects of climatic factors, infrastructural development and political risk on this relationship. The study used the system GMM technique, the panel Granger causality framework, and annual panel data of 41 African countries from 2009 to 2018. Contrary to the tourism-led growth hypothesis, we find that the role of tourism as a driver of economic growth in Africa is predominantly negligible, which in turn suggests that Africa is yet to exploit its tourism potentials to drive growth during the post-Global Financial Crisis period. The study concludes that there is need for African leaders to coordinate policy efforts towards harnessing the tourism potentials on the continent in order to diversify their economies, counter instability in global commodity markets, drive sustainable growth, and fight the twin evils of poverty and unemployment.     

Is the protection of beach and dune vegetation compatible with tourism?

The paradox of development vs. protection and conservation of the coasts highlights the need to determine if tourism and conservation can be compatible rather than opposite activities. We analyzed the spatial and temporal changes in vegetation cover, composition and diversity in three beaches located in the state of Veracruz (Mexico) with different levels of tourism activity (Natural, Trailer Park and Hotels). We calculated tourist density and evaluated vegetation cover, species richness and diversity and analyzed the changes before and after three holiday seasons (winter, spring and summer). The Natural site had the highest vegetation cover (42.8 m²), species richness (14) and diversity (1.50), and Trailer Park the lowest (4.9 m², 8 species, and 0.897 respectively). The BACI (Before-After-Control-Design) analysis showed no significant differences before and after the holiday seasons. Our results show how low and medium density tourism can be compatible with the protection of beach and coastal dune vegetation.