旅游业对经济增长的贡献研究评述

为进一步探索旅游业的作用及其经济影响,文章对CNKI中1989—2014年的文献进行了检索、筛选,就旅游业对经济增长的贡献研究,从研究指标的选取和研究方法的运用两个方面进行了研究评述.研究发现:在研究指标选取上,旅游收入、旅游消费、支柱产业的贡献标准等获得普遍认可,所用频率较高;在研究方法上,大部分定量研究采用了投入产出分析或旅游卫星账户,而可计算的一般均衡模型在近几年的运用中崭露头角.研究指标选取存在解释缺失或解释过于简单的问题,而投入产出分析、旅游卫星账户、CGE模型都是基于内在假设的前提下进行模型构建,是对现实问题的简化,存在局限;在具体操作过程中,3种测算方法对数据的要求极高,现行的统计制度尚无法满足要求.在后续研究过程中,旅游基础理论和相关概念界定、旅游数据统计、指标选择的原因解释、建模方式、研究方法和研究工具的选择以及动态CGE模型的研究等几大问题仍需引起广大学者的高度重视.     

基于因素分析的区域旅游竞争力评价模型研究

竞争力评价是近年学术研究的热点.本文首先回顾了我国区域旅游竞争力评价的相关研究,然后从分析区域旅游竞争力的影响因素入手,构建一个评价区域旅游竞争力的多层次指标体系,并利用因子分析法对指标体系进行定量分析,建立相应的综合评价模型.     

国外旅游产业竞争力研究述评

近年来旅游产业竞争力正逐渐成为国内外研究的热点领域,本文通过对国外相关研究文献的梳理与回顾,对旅游产业竞争力的相关影响因素、评价方法和模型、存在问题以及未来研究趋势进行了深入探讨。     

社会交往、旅游情境对旅游需求的影响研究--基于春节“黄金周”的实证分析

以往关于消费者需求行为的研究多基于传统经济学框架的设定展开，认为影响消费者旅游需求的主要因素包含收入、目的地吸引力、交通等，普遍忽视了消费过程中的社会交往和具体情境。文章在理论分析的基础上，提出了若干命题，将消费者收入、社会交往和旅游情境等因素纳入旅游消费者需求的模型中，提出了若干研究命题。依据2014年春节“黄金周”旅游需求调研数据，采用排序选择模型验证了相关命题的正确性。计量结果表明，个人经济因素对我国消费者春节“黄金周”旅游需求影响较小，家庭结构、同伴等社会交往因素是影响其旅游需求的重要因素；我国消费者对于春节“黄金周”出游过程中遭遇的拥堵、旅游市场混乱等旅游情境问题具有一定的容忍度，但是，严重供需失衡导致的旅游情境问题依然对其旅游需求产生了显著的影响。     

农业文化遗产地旅游扰动与社区韧性耦合协调关系研究——以云南哈尼梯田为例

近年来，农业文化遗产地旅游发展迅速。农业文化遗产作为一种特殊的活态遗产和旅游资源类型，具有生态脆弱和文化敏感等特点，旅游活动在某种意义上对农业文化遗产是一种强烈的人为扰动，如果管理不善，可能会产生严重负面影响。文章以云南哈尼梯田为例，选取不同旅游发展程度的阿者科、普高老寨、大鱼塘、箐口、勐品和胜村6个村寨，基于系统论理论将哈尼梯田遗产地旅游扰动与社区韧性看作是一个整体，构建农业文化遗产地旅游扰动与社区韧性指标体系，运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型评价两者的关系，应用障碍度模型识别关键影响因素。结果表明：（1）哈尼梯田遗产地具备较强的社区韧性水平，旅游发展程度越高，社区韧性总体水平相对越高，旅游扰动相对越弱；（2）遗产地旅游扰动与社区韧性的耦合度处于高耦合水平阶段，耦合协调类型为勉强协调、旅游扰动滞后型，遗产地旅游发展并未产生威胁到社区韧性系统的破坏性扰动；（3）旅游发展程度不同，影响两者协调关系的因素也有所差异。该研究对哈尼梯田未来旅游发展提供相关启示，有助于推动哈尼梯田遗产地旅游可持续发展。     

旅游发展与经济增长、第三产业增长动态关系——基于中国1978～2008数据的实证检验

在综述国内外文献并分析现有研究不足的基础上,文章通过构建Engel-Granger两步协整模型和格兰杰因果检验模型,以1978 ～2008年旅游发展、经济增长和第三产业增长时间序列数据为研究对象,检验中国旅游发展与经济增长和第三产业增长之间的长期均衡和因果作用关系.结果显示:(1)中国旅游发展与经济增长、第三产业增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,且分别有经济增长和第三产业增长到旅游发展的单向格兰杰因果作用关系,但与国际大多数研究结果不同的是,尚不存在旅游发展到经济增长或第三产业增长的单向格兰杰因果作用关系；(2)中国经济增长和第三产业增长对旅游发展的弹性系数分别为2.158和2.340,其中,第三产业对旅游发展的影响更大.研究结论为中国经济与旅游的协调发展提供了重要的政策启示.     

乡村旅游景观认知对重游意愿的影响——基于目的地依恋和游客满意度的链式多重中介效应分析

<正>文章以广东省乡村旅游游客为研究对象，基于“认知—情感—行为”理论和自我调节态度理论，构建目的地依恋与游客满意度的链式多重中介模型，研究乡村景观认知对重游意愿的影响，使用自制量表收集数据，应用SPSS 26和AMOS 24软件对研究模型进行实证分析。结果表明：(1)乡村景观认知对重游意愿存在显著的正向影响；(2)乡村景观认知正向影响目的地依恋，目的地依恋正向影响重游意愿；(3)乡村景观认知正向影响游客满意度，游客满意度正向影响重游意愿；(4)目的地依恋和游客满意度在乡村景观认知与重游意愿之间存在链式多重中介效应。文章深入探究游客旅游行为动机和心理机制，可以为制定乡村旅游营销策略提供理论基础，有利于提高乡村旅游服务质量。     

旅游电子商务网站内容交付性测量与评价研究

随着旅游电子商务网成为旅游业一种至关重要的推广模式,旅游服务、旅游产品及相关信息的组织与呈现,进而促进交易的实现,是网站建设和运营的核心内容.本文以国内知名的20个综合性电子商务旅游网站为研究样本,构建了基于信息层和功能层的三级评价指标体系,采用问卷调查和内容分析方法,定性分析与定量统计相结合,建立旅游电子商务网站内容期望-交付研究框架与模型,评价样本网站的内容交付性,为我国综合性旅游电子商务网站的内容建设和产品服务创新提供参考.     

国内外古镇旅游研究综述

随着我国旅游业的快速发展，旅游产品类型不断增加，古镇旅游日趋兴旺。文章通过对近年来相关文献的系统回顾，引证、比较、分析、评价了国内外古镇旅游研究的内容、方法及其结果，希望能够为古镇旅游研究提供有益的参考。     

屈原故里景区旅游总经济价值评估研究

现有旅游价值研究中多用游憩价值或再加上非使用价值来代替旅游总经济价值，这种价值评估并不完整。文章借鉴环境经济价值评估的通用框架，基于对旅游价值构成的逻辑关系分析，旅游总经济价值应是由游憩价值、旅游品牌价值、旅游环境价值、生态服务价值、选择价值、遗产价值和存在价值7种基本价值类型构成的4级价值体系。根据屈原故里景区的特点，按照科学性、可操作性、可比性等原则优选确定各项旅游价值的评估方法：①游憩价值采用旅行费用区间分析法；②旅游品牌价值采用最大品牌权益法评估；③旅游环境价值采用费用支出法；④生态服务价值采用生态系统静态平衡模型；⑤选择价值、遗产价值和存在价值等旅游非使用价值采用条件价值法。实证研究结果为：屈原故里景区2010年的旅游总经济价值约为1．37亿元；其中，游憩价值为3171．39万元，旅游品牌价值为915．6万元，旅游环境价值为1445万元，生态服务价值为30．65万元，旅游总使用价值为5562．64万元；旅游非使用价值为8122．3万元。评估不仅反映了屈原故里的总经济价值，还揭示出旅游价值体系的多维构成关系。     

The impacts of temporary but anticipated tourism spending: An application to the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games

An extensive literature attempts to identify the economic impact of tourism expenditure. While Input-Output methods have been widely applied these may not always be appropriate for such applications and there is a growing use of more flexible Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approaches. This paper uses a multi-period Scottish CGE model to estimate the system-wide effects of the temporary tourism expenditure related to the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. We quantify the sensitivity of our results to model specification, focusing in particular on how investment and consumption decisions are made and shifted over time to accommodate the temporary tourism shock. As part of this analysis we identify the pre-announcement period that optimises the present value of the economic impact. Whilst the empirical results apply to a specific event, our results have implications for similar analyses applied to mega events and other temporary phenomena affecting tourism expenditure, such as terrorism attacks or epidemics.     

The economic impact of tourism in SIDS

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are faced with many challenges to economic development. Tourism is seen as a viable, and sometimes, only means of economic growth. This research compares the economic impact of tourism to seven SIDS. The research employs input output analysis, linkage analysis and a CGE model to assess the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of increased tourism in these islands. The findings show that the transportation sector remains a key sector. The tourism income multipliers show that tourism generates a large amount of economic activity but the income that remains in the destinations is often very small. The results show that taking advantage of economies of scale maybe a way to maximize the benefits from tourism.     

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF VISA RESTRICTIONS ON TOURISM: A CASE OF TWO EVENTS IN CHINA

Increasing attention has been paid to evaluate the impacts of large scale events on tourism demand. For providing policy suggestions, it should consider the economic impact of both events themselves and other factors. This paper evaluates the economic effects of visa restrictions on tourism as a result of the 1989 Tian’an Men Square Incident and the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games by using an innovative combination of econometric and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The results show that both events generated economic losses. The unexpected negative economic impact of the Beijing Olympics seems attributable to visa restrictions. Suggestions for the alleviation of the negative impact of visa regulations are provided.     

A CGE assessment of Singapore's tourism policies

The extraordinary performance of the Singapore tourism industry is attributed, among other factors, to the active tourism policies of the Singapore government, but the effectiveness of Singapore tourism policies has never been quantified. By building a CGE model for the Singapore economy with an emphasis on tourism and utilising the recently published Singapore input–output tables and tourism survey data, this study has gauged economic impact of Singapore inbound tourism and the effectiveness of Singapore tourism policies based on the simulated macroeconomic and sectoral effects. The modelling results show that, in terms of both real GDP and total tourism expenditure, tourism GST deduction is the most effective policy followed by the tourism activity subsidy policy. The tourism industry subsidy policy is proven to be the least effective. Since different tourism policies have different strengths and weaknesses, a balanced and focused approach to tourism policy is suggested for policy makers.     

The Role of Inbound Tourism in the Singaporean Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Assessment

This study has employed recently published input–output (I–O) tables and tourism survey data and built a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, to assess the role of inbound tourism in the Singaporean economy and thus to reveal its implications for tourism marketing. Compared with the I–O analysis, the CGE modeling takes into account the feedback effect in the economy and thus produces more reliable results. The modeling results show that inbound tourism contributes significantly to the Singaporean economy, but it competes mildly with non-tourism sectors for resources. Although tourism shopping accounts for about half of total tourism expenditure, its economic contribution is much less than that of the tourism service in terms of GDP, employment, household income, and tax revenue. This suggests that, in developing and marketing Singapore as a tourist destination, more efforts are needed to encourage tourism services demand.     

新冠肺炎疫情对区域旅游发展影响及恢复发展应对策略研究——以云南省为例

新冠肺炎疫情爆发并迅速蔓延,对依赖以人的位移产生综合消费的旅游业的影响是巨大而且全方位的。以云南省为例,从宏观旅游经济运行、中观旅游业态发展、微观旅游企业发展及旅游资本市场四个层次,对新冠肺炎给区域旅游发展带来的影响进行分析与研判。在此基础上,提出区域旅游恢复发展的应对策略。     

Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism

It is expected that global oil prices will increase in the future. Assessing the overall economic impacts on tourism is difficult, as oil price rises will be concomitant with global changes in other commodity prices, exchange rates, and incomes. A general equilibrium perspective is therefore presented in this paper. The model couples a global general equilibrium model with a purpose-built CGE model of New Zealand, which focuses on describing tourism supply and demand in some detail. The results indicate a decrease in real gross national disposable income of 1.7% for a doubling of oil price and a 9% reduction in the real value of tourism exports. As a result of segment-specific price increases and differing income and exchange rate effects and elasticities, the reduction in demand for tourism in New Zealand by 18 segments differs substantially. The greatest reduction in demand is observed for tourists from the United Kingdom.     

A comparison of the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the economic development for islands and other countries

Tourism is usually one of the top industries in most countries, especially islands. However, there is some question as to whether there is a negative potential impact if a country relies too much on tourism as a means of economic development to the detriment of other industries such as manufacturing and agriculture. The purpose of this paper is to examine the moderating effect of tourism reliance on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for regular countries and island economies, including “small island developing states” (SIDS). This study uses quantile regression on panel data from the WDI database from 1995 through 2014 for all of the countries that report tourism and economic data. The findings demonstrate that tourism reliance does have a moderating effect on the relationship between tourism development and economic development for all countries, but mainly at higher levels of economic development.     

The effect of international tourism on economic development: An empirical analysis

The expansion of international tourism in developing countries is generally considered to promote their economic development. In this paper, the impact of international tourism on economic development is modelled using an aggregate production function framework. It specifically investigates intersectoral externalities and marginal factor productivity differences between the international tourism sector and the rest of the economy. The net effect of international tourism on GDP per capita is examined via an empirical analysis of 37 developing economies. The results indicate that international tourism may positively affect economic development in these countries.     

旅游区经济影响域界定研究——以八达岭长城旅游区为例

文章提出了旅游区经济影响域的概念和关键指标、界定模型,并选取八达岭旅游区作为典型案例区,旅游区周围的6个村落为样本点,进行现场问卷调查和深入访谈,从而获取了旅游经济指标的实测值以及样本空间坐标。然后运用旅游区经济影响指数模型和旅游区经济影响域域值模型对样本数据进行总体趋势和范围的分析。结果发现,基于户均旅游直接就业和收入标准化值的八达岭旅游区旅游经济影响域域值为2.84千米,该值代表了八达岭旅游区经济辐射范围核心部分。在此基础上,刻画出旅游经济影响域的空间结构,并探讨了空间分异的原因。