The shares method for revealing latent tourism demand

This paper develops an intuitive methodology to reveal latent tourism demand. The aim is to quantify its scale by distinguishing the pair of origin-destination and the kind of tourism. The methodology starts measuring the market size that depends on origin population size and their willingness to participate in outbound tourism. Additionally, it takes into account the varying preferences of each origin population for different kinds of tourism. Finally, it compares the current market share of tourism with the expected market share, which is estimated using a random parameter logit model. The study draws on data from EU-28 countries. It provides indicators to select target markets to be strengthened and design strategies based on better air connectivity or oriented marketing campaigns.     

Identifying a destination’s optimal tourist market mix: Does a superior portfolio model exist?

Extant tourism research has used various portfolio model types to determine optimal tourist market mixes which simultaneously maximize total tourist expenditure and minimise the instability of international inbound tourism demand. We analyse the three portfolio models that have been applied in the tourism literature: two varieties of a levels model (that use the level of tourist arrivals, or bed nights to quantify tourist activity) and a growth rates model (that deploys the growth in the level of tourist activity). Applying these models using per capita expenditure in four distinctively different destination countries (Australia, Greece, Japan, and USA), we demonstrate that the Levels Model 1 is superior to the Levels Model 2 and the Growth Rates Model. It produces solutions that provide noticeably higher tourist expenditure with less instability of international tourism demand than the status quo. Theoretical contributions and practical implications for tourism policy makers and destination marketers are discussed.     

Global Financial/Economic Crisis and Tourist Arrival Forecasts for Hong Kong

This paper examines the impact of the global financial/economic crisis on the demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents of 10 major source markets for the period 2009–2012. To capture the influence of this crisis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ADLM) is used to calculate the demand elasticities, and four scenarios (ranging from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic) are created to examine the possible impacts of changes in source market income levels and the price of tourism on the demand for Hong Kong tourism in these markets. The demand elasticities reveal that the economic conditions in the source markets are the most significant determinants of demand for Hong Kong tourism. In the most pessimistic scenario, total tourist arrivals to Hong Kong are projected to reach 27.6 million in 2009 and 26.0 million in 2012, whereas in the most optimistic scenario, these numbers are 30.7 million in 2009 and 33 million in 2012. In all of the scenarios, tourist arrivals from the long-haul markets are expected to suffer more losses relative to the short-haul markets during the 2009–2012 forecasting period. The forecasts also indicate that the market shares of the source markets will change slightly over this period, with Mainland China, Taiwan and Japan constituting the dominant markets for Hong Kong tourism.     

The segmentation of canary island tourism markets by expenditure: implications for tourism policy

The Canary Islands have an indisputable comparative and competitive edge within the European Union as regards their tourism products. The present study takes a segmented market approach to study the Canary Islands tourism market, featuring a range of tourism products, each of which satisfies to a greater or lesser extent the needs of one segment of demand. It has two objectives: firstly, to ascertain which segments of demand are currently acquired at destination and secondly, to identify within these segments the niches associated with the highest expenditure. This will enable us to draw up guideliness for a regional policy on product innovation that focuses on these niches and thus generates higher levels of local development.     

Modeling Japanese Tourism Demand for Asian Destinations: A Dynamic AIDS Approach

This paper investigates the expenditure allocation of Japanese international tourism in its five major Asian destinations, China, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. The dynamic of linear approximation the almost ideal demand system is used to determine the long-run equilibrium while the short-run dynamics are represented by an error correction mechanism. The empirical results indicate that the changes in market shares of Japanese outbound tourism are significantly influenced by the changes in tourists' expenditure, rather than the changes in relative tourism prices. The results show that Japan expenditure rises, the market share of Taiwan and Thailand declines, while Korea benefits. In addition, price competitiveness is important for Japanese demand for Korea, but is relatively unimportant for the other destinations.     

A Microeconomics Analysis of the Per Diem Expenditure of British Travellers

The aim of this paper is to analyse factors that affect expenditure patterns of British travellers. It is the first study which focuses solely on this market. Using an original questionnaire, data are collected and a sample of 1178 is retained. To obtain robust estimates, the data are analysed using quantile regression technique. The study shows that income length of stay, employment status and types of accommodation used are important factors affecting per diem expenditure. The study contributes to the literature by investigating an additional dimension of demand determinant by analysing the effect of variables related to the home country. Transfer cost in the UK is found to be significant in determining total tourism expenditure abroad.     

云南旅游"二次创业"的市场分析和对策

本文通过对"十五"和2006年云南旅游市场发展的分析和研究,认为云南旅游市场已进入快速发展的成长期,并呈现出旅游客源市场多元化发展、旅游者消费水平不断攀高、旅游消费结构趋向合理、旅游目的地市场形成梯度、旅游市场形象更加鲜明等特点.针对云南旅游面临日趋激烈的市场竞争,云南在旅游"二次创业"发展中,必须立足自身发展的实际,抓住对内对外开放的有利时机,以旅游消费需求为导向,以培育旅游精品为重点,以旅游诚信建设为目标,以创新旅游促销为手段,以区域旅游合作为契机,以推进科技应用为动力,全面推进国际国内旅游市场的开发和拓展.     

International tourism demand and the business cycle

The focus of this study is on presenting causes and hypotheses for the existence of asymmetric income and price effects on tourism demand across business cycles. The theoretical assumptions were tested by analyzing tourism import demand in different source markets, drawing on econometric models that provide for the magnitudes of price and income effects either to vary depending on the phase of the business cycle or to remain stable across the business cycles. The major outcome of this study is that the general assumption in most of the tourism demand studies—i.e. that the income effects are symmetric—should not be expected to be automatically true for every source market.     

出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同

根据微观经济学的需求理论，结合相关研究进展，文章构建了包括基本经济因素（收入和相对价格）、对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征、突发事件等变量在内的出境旅游需求模型，以74个国家/地区1995—2013年的数据为样本，分析了发达经济体和发展中经济体出境旅游需求影响因素的总体特征与异同。结果表明，收入和价格是影响出境旅游需求的决定性因素，对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征及突发事件等其他因素对出境旅游需求同样具有一定的影响。其中，收入、价格以及产业发展水平对发展中经济体出境旅游需求的影响作用相对更大，而对外开放度和人口统计特征（就业水平、年龄结构和受教育水平）对发达经济体出境旅游需求的影响更加显著。     

中国城市居民旅游需求差异分析

旅游需求分析是旅游开发的基础。旅游需求差异分析有利于认识旅游市场特征。本文认为差异问题可以转化为分类问题，于是利用人工神经网络的Kohonen网络对中国39个城市居民的旅游需求分类，然后考虑了收入、旅游消费占收入的比例、区域旅游供给强度和交通条件4个因素，对各个类型的城市居民旅游需求特征信息进行了进一步的分析。得到的认识是：(1)从出游率和消费两方面衡量中国城市阃居民的旅游需求的确存在类型差别，并且在不同程度上与人均收入有相关关系。(2)人均收入与旅游需求存在相关性，但是不同地区(城市)的人均收入只影响其部分旅游需求。     

Market shares analysis: The Case of French Tourism Demand

This paper examines the magnitudes and determinants of changes in destinations’ shares of a major tourist origin market. The Almost Ideal Demand System model is used to quantify the responsiveness of French tourism demand in Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom to changes in relative prices, exchange rates, tourists’ expenditure budget, and external events. The results indicate that effective price competitiveness is a key variable driving changes in market shares. Policymakers who wish to maintain their shares of the French market should pay particular attention to tourism pricing policies, as well as to improving the tourism offer.     

黄山风景区国际旅游市场时空演替特征研究

本文运用市场竞争态和亲景度分析方法,从时空动态视角综合分析1993-2004年黄山风景区国际旅游市场演替的绝对和相对特征.指出黄山风景区具有发展优势或潜力的客源市场主要集中于亚洲国家,处于市场竞争优势状态且亲景度较高的日本、美国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡是黄山风景区的五大重点国际客源市场.针对各主要客源市场变化特征,提出进一步开拓黄山风景区国际旅游市场的建议.     

成都国际旅游营销的市场细分与定位研究

城市国际旅游市场营销必须建立在科学的需求分析预测基础上,才能确保后续管理活动的正确和高效.本文基于对海外10个国家和旅居国内4城市的外籍人士的问卷调研,聚类分析出成都市国际旅游客源的5大细分市场,阐明了各目标市场的类型特征及其相应的产品结构性开发,并就成都实际提出了整合旅游营销传播的市场定位体系.     

Persistent homology in tourism: Unlocking the possibilities

Marketing a destination is costly so efficiency of promotion expenditure is critical; identifying improved techniques to achieve this will be of great value. Clustering techniques have sought to identify target markets but are widely criticised for the biases they induce. Persistent Homology identifies key tourist groupings with similar behaviours without the prejudice of the functional forms inherent in most regression models. It further produces more focused, and therefore easily promoted to, markets. Consequently Persistent Homology can highlight obtainable promotion opportunities that otherwise would be missed. This paper provides an example of its application to identify the highest, and lowest, spenders amongst tourists visiting the United Kingdom. We further provide an intuitive theoretical background highlighting the inherent value of the methodology for tourism research. Potential for impact in applications to other aspects of tourism practice is also great as we signpost therein.     

Managing tourism emissions through optimizing the tourism demand mix: Concept and analysis

Carbon mitigation strategies are an urgent and overdue tourism industry imperative. The tourism response to climate action has been to engage businesses in technology adoption, and to encourage more sustainable visitor behaviour. These strategies however are insufficient to mitigate the soaring carbon footprint of tourism. Building upon the concepts of optimization and eco-efficiency, we put forward a novel carbon mitigation approach, which seeks to pro-actively determine, foster, and develop a long-term tourist market portfolio. This can be achieved through intervening and reconfiguring the demand mix with the fundamental aim of promoting low carbon travel markets. The concept and the analytical framework that quantitatively inform optimization of the desired market mix are presented. Combining the “de-growth” and “optimization” strategies, it is demonstrated that in the case study of Taiwan, great potential exists to reduce emissions and sustain economic yields. The implications for tourism destination managers and wider industry stakeholders are discussed.     

ASEAN’s intra-regional tourism demand to Thailand

This paper presents an overview of intra-regional tourism in ASEAN at the beginning of the challenging times that will come with the constitution of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Thailand is chosen as the destination country and the other nine countries are selected as origin. After presenting ASEAN’s intra-regional tourism, the study develops a model of long-run demand. The coefficients are estimated by a time-varying parameters method considering the potential presence of structural breaks, and its implication. The results present and discuss the implications of income, own price, and cross price elasticities. As concluding recommendations, this study suggests that while the region should take advantage of the expansion of the Asian markets due to economic growth and liberalization of ASEAN since 2016, it should use different policies in each origin market.     

Shifting patterns and determinants of Asia-pacific tourism to Australia, 1990–2010

Australia is an increasingly important international holiday destination. Especially travel demand from Asia-Pacific countries has increased, which has led Australian policy-makers to believe the Asia-Pacific region will remain the largest growth market for holiday tourists. This article first presents an overview of the evolution and shifting geographical patterns of Asia-Pacific tourism to Australia between 1990 and 2010, and relies on this to explore the major determinants underlying these changes using a bootstrapped loglinear multiple regression analysis. Results indicate that income (GDP per capita) remains the most important factor explaining tourism demand, albeit that the Australian holiday market is becoming increasingly mature. Distance, as a proxy for travel costs, has large negative elasticity that has slightly increased over time as the effects of air transport liberalization have been off-set by oil prices’. The paper is concluded with an outlook on some possible opportunities and challenges for future tourism demand to Australia.     

旅游者中位年龄的几个市场指示意义

年龄是旅游市场细分理论中一个重要的社会—人口学变量,不同的年龄结构对细分市场的旅游行为有着重要的影响。然而,在刻画旅游者年龄结构时,无论是在业界实践还是学界研究中,被普遍采用但标准各异的旅游者年龄"上中下"分组模式却不可避免地制约了相关研究成果之间纵向或横向的比较与验证,需要发展一条可以沟通联系的纽带。文章试图将中位年龄作为这种可能的纽带引入我国旅游市场研究领域,基于国家旅游局公开发布的旅游者年龄统计数据,提出了旅游市场类型的中位年龄划分标准,并在此基础上进一步探讨了旅游者中位年龄在指示市场结构类型、市场环境波动和市场发展分化方面的后效价值,以期为旅游市场营销与管理提供一定的理论依据。     

从宗教景区上市透视宗教文化资本化

旅游市场竞争日趋激烈,上市成为提升景区发展力和竞争力的重要途径。在资本前景的诱惑下,诸多宗教型景区萌发上市冲动,而引发突破社会伦理的热议。文章围绕宗教景区上市背后的宗教文化资本化的话题,以宗教社会学、马克斯·韦伯的现代性等为理论基础,从宗教存在逻辑与资本逻辑间张力角度,分析旅游语境下的宗教文化资本化现象。结论认为,包括旅游资本在内的现代资本为宗教的发展提供支撑资源,但资本的理性、世俗性与宗教的感性、神圣性间存在不可调和的张力。单纯市场化的宗教旅游发展模式会消解宗教赖以存在的根基,因此不是宗教旅游发展的最佳选择。鉴于宗教旅游的准公共物品属性,现代非营利性组织的运营模式为宗教旅游的发展提供有益借鉴。     

Are all tourism markets equal? Linkages between market-based tourism demand,quality of life,and economic development in Hong Kong

Tourism markets are heterogeneous, and their performance and effects can be better understood when considered separately. This paper investigates the linkages between tourism demand from several markets and quality of life, using Hong Kong as a case of study. The literature has, initially only considered a unilateral relationship running from aggregate tourism development to residents' quality of life, and a bilateral connection has only recently been recognized. The study contributes to the literature by considering a market-segmented (mainland China, Japan, the U.S., and other markets) approach to tourism demand, using a relatively underemphasized objectively-based method, and by providing building blocks for theoretical propositions. The methodology consists of unit root and cointegration testing, together with the application of the Three-Stage Least Squares method with the Seemingly Unrelated Regression approach on time-series data. The identified market-based differences can help academia and industry in better understanding the diverse markets and building a competitive edge.