Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient Markets

This paper presents the case for and the evidence in favour of passive investment strategies and examines the major criticisms of the technique. I conclude that the evidence strongly supports passive investment management in all markets—small–capitalisation stocks as well as large–capitalisation equities, US markets as well as international markets, and bonds as well as stocks. Recent attacks on the efficient market hypothesis do not weaken the case for indexing.     

论法律不完备性与政府介入期货市场

在期货市场上，法律不完备性问题表现得较为突出，法律对于侵害行为的阻吓作用非常有限、期货市场法律的不完备性，主要取决于期货市场的特点和性质。政府采取相关的监管方式管理期货市场非常必要，监管的介入需要满足标准化和损害（外部性）足够高的条件。政府管理期货市场立法和法院执法的作用不可或缺，但更主要的是采用监管的方式。     

Operations of a Pension Fund after the Asian Crisis: The Thai Experience*

During and after the Asian crisis, institutional investors and pension funds in Asian financial markets have been confronted with a number of difficulties effecting their performance and the way they carry out their role within the national pension system. We analyze these problems by comparing the actual investment policy of an institutional investor with an optimal investment strategy derived from the insights of modern portfolio theory. We also analyze whether the organizational set‐up of a pension fund allows it to adequately perform its role within the pension system. As an example, we examine the operations of the Thai Government Pension Fund (GPF). We find that allowing international investments and reducing restrictions on equity investments while lowering the implicit requirements for investments in government debt would allow the GPF to further diversify its investment risk and to increase its risk‐adjusted return. We also show that some changes in the governance structure of the GPF would lower the occurrence of conflicts of interest for the management and increase the efficiency of the GPF operations.     

Biological Adaptation in Human Societies: a ‘Basic Needs’ Approach

The groundzero premise (so to speak) of the biological sciences is that survival and reproduction is the basic, continuing, inescapable problem for all living organisms; life is at bottom a survival enterprise. It follows that survival is the paradigmatic problem for human societies as well; it is a prerequisite for any other, more exalted objectives. Although the term adaptation is also familiar to social scientists, until recently it has been used only selectively, and often very imprecisely. Here a more rigorous and systematic approach to the concept of adaptation is proposed in terms of basic needs. The concept of basic human needs has a venerable history – tracing back at least to Plato and Aristotle. Yet the development of a formal theory of basic needs has lagged far behind. The reason is that the concept of objective, measurable needs is inconsistent with the theoretical assumptions that have dominated economic and social theory for most of this century, namely, valuerelativism and cultural determinism. Nevertheless, there have been a number of efforts over the past 30 years to develop more universalistic criteria for basic needs, both for use in monitoring social wellbeing (social indicators) and for public policy formulation. Here I will advance a strictly biological approach to perationalizing the concept of basic needs. It is argued that much of our economic and social life (and the motivations behind our revealed preferences and subjective utility assessments), not to mention the actions of modern governments, are either directly or indirectly related to the meeting of our basic survival needs. Furthermore, these needs can be specified to a first approximation and supported empirically to varying degrees, with the obvious caveat that there are major individual and contextual variations in their application. Equally important, complex human societies generate an array of instrumental needs which, as the term implies, serve as intermediaries between our primary needs and the specific economic, cultural and political contexts within which these needs must be satisfied. An explicit framework of Survival Indicators, including a profile of Personal Fitness and an aggregate index of Population Fitness, is briefly elucidated. Finally, it is suggested that a basic needs paradigm could provide an analytical tool (a biologic) for examining more closely the relationship between our social, economic and political behaviors and institutions and their survival consequences, as well as providing a predictive tool of some value.     

农民工子女社会适应状况的障碍分析及对策

进城农民工人口数量的不断增长以及流动方式的变化,催生了农民工子女群体的产生。我国二元社会结构下形成的各种障碍性因素对进城农民工及其子女在生活、就学、就业等方面起着限制、排斥等消极作用。改善进城农民工子女社会适应状况要从改革不合理的制度和政策,改变造成农民工子女不良适应的非制度因素影响,提高和改善农民工及其子女的个人素质等方面努力去做。     

Rationality,foolishness, and adaptive intelligence

Technologies of model‐based rationality are the core technologies of strategic management, having largely replaced earlier technologies that placed greater reliance on traditional practice or on communication either with the stars or with the gods. The technologies used by organizations in their pursuit of intelligence can be imagined to change over time as a result of responding to the successes and failures associated with the technologies. Although technologies of rationality seem clearly to be effective instruments of exploitation in relatively simple situations and to derive their adaptive advantage from those capabilities, their ventures in more complex explorations seem often to lead to huge mistakes and thus unlikely to be sustained by adaptive processes. Whether their survival as instruments of exploratory novelty in complex situations is desirable is a difficult question to answer, but it seems likely that any such survival may require hitchhiking on their successes in simpler worlds. Survival may also be served by the heroism of fools and the blindness of true believers. Their imperviousness to feedback is both the despair of adaptive intelligence and, conceivably, its salvation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter-city travel behaviour adaptation to extreme weather events

Increased attention has been paid to travel behaviour in circumstances of extreme weather conditions that are expected with climate change, and the analyses usually address intra-city travel. There is lack of assessments on inter-city travel which has less redundancy and is more exposed to extreme weather threats. In addition, much of the research has been carried out in developed countries. This paper provides new perspectives by investigating how people adapt their inter-city travel behaviour to flooding impacts in Bangladesh. With an orthogonal design of three flooding scenarios, questionnaire data were collected in 14 coastal and inland areas. Results of the statistical analyses identify the significant impacts of flooding on people’s inter-city travel and reveal significant differences in attitudes and responses to flooding and extreme weather in coastal compared to inland locations. The main factors significantly affecting travel behaviour choice are road disruption, isolation by flood water, and flood frequency. These factors are felt differently in coastal and inland locations. The most common responses are cancelling trips or changing destinations. It is recommended that when making flooding adaptation decisions, it is important to protect road infrastructure and guarantee accessible routes in coastal areas, while offering more flood adaptation education to the inland people.     

组织变革对组织存活的影响研究——基于组织生态学的视角

20世纪以来,科学技术的快速发展,促进了全球经济的增长,给组织带来了发展的机遇,但是市场环境的剧烈动荡,使组织面临巨大的市场挑战和风险。组织为了生存,必须进行变革,但变革的高风险和高成本又反过来影响了组织生存。因此,组织变革与组织存活的关系是一个值得探讨的话题。目前,此问题的研究主要集中在两个视角:适应视角和生态学视角。其中,生态学视角是一种新的分析视角,为组织变革理论的研究提供了重要借鉴。     

Climate change adaptation actions by fish farmers: evidence from the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

This paper examined climate change adaptation strategies in fish farming and the effect of such methods on the profit of fish farmers in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country. Using cross‐sectional data obtained from 420 fish farmers from the region and applying multivariate probit and instrumental variable regressions, the study found that fish farmers have adopted a broad range of strategies to address climate risk and that these have significantly increased farmers’ profit. Our findings indicated important relationships between certain farm, socio‐economic and institutional characteristics and the adaptation actions. The study provides useful insight into factors that potentially encourage the adoption of livelihood‐enhancing climate risk adaptation strategies by fish farmers in the Niger Delta region and similar contexts.