Country size,trade concentration and trade instability: An alternative approach

Zusammenfassung Landesgr?βe, Handelskonzentration und Handelsinstabilit?t: Ein alternativer Ansatz. — Die Verwendung einer modifizierten Version des Gini-Hirschman Konzentrationsindex zeigt in Verbindung mit der geographischen und produktm?βigen Verteilung, daβ die Entwicklungsl?nder als Lieferanten ihrer wesentlichen Exporte eine bedeutendere Rolle spielen als früher angenommen wurde, wenn man haupts?chlich die Gr?βe bestimmter Exporte als Anteile der Gesamtk?ufe der Importl?nder dieser Güter betrachtet. Diese Bedeutung eines Landes als Lieferant von Gütern für seine wichtigsten Handelspartner bringt nicht unbedingt mit sich, daβ es sehr empfindlich gegenüber Exporterl?sschwankungen ist, selbst wenn es — gemessen durch den einfachen Gini-Hirschman-Konzentrationskoeffizienten — relativ hohe produktm?βige und geographische Konzentrationsindizes aufweist. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht auβerdem die Landesgr?βe in Relation zum kombinierten Handelsindex sowie zum Index der Handelsinstabilit?t, der nach der Coppockschen Log-Varianz-Methode ermittelt wird. Der in der Literatur über Handelskonzentration im allgemeinen vernachl?ssigte Importsektor wird ebenfalls im Lichte der genannten Analyse untersucht.

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Résumeé La dimension de pays, la concentration de commerce extérieur et l’instabilité de commerce extérieur: Une approche alternative. — En appliquant une version modifiée des Gini-Hirschman indice de concentration combinant la distribution géographique et de marchandises nous démonstrons que les pays développants sont des offrants plus importants de leurs exportations majeures qu’on croyait auparavant si on considère primairement le volume des exportations spécifiques comme rapport des achats totaux de ces produits spécifiques par les pays importants. La dimension de l’importance d’un pays comme offrant des produits vis-à-vis ses partenaires commerciaux majeurs ne veut pas dire nécessairement qu’il sera fortement sujet à des fluctuations des revenus exportatrices même s’il aurait des indices de concentration géographiques et de marchandises relativement hauts comme mesurés par le simple coéfficient de concentration de Gini-Hirschman. Cet article examine aussi la dimension de pays en relation avec l’indice combiné de commerce et subséquentement avec l’indice d’instabilité de commerce extérieur qui est computé en appliquant la méthode de log-variance de Coppock. Nous analysons aussi le secteur d’importation, qui est généralement ignoré dans la littérature sur la concentration commerciale en jour de l’analyse susdite.

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Resumen Tama?o de un país, concentración del comercio e inestabilidad comercial: una aproximación alternativa. — La utilización de una versión modificada del índice de concentración Gini/Hirschman, en que se combina la distribución geográfica y de productos, muestra que los países en desarrollo son oferentes más importantes de sus principales exportaciones de lo que previamente se creía, si se observa primeramente el tama?o de exportaciones específicas como participación en las compras de estos productos especificos por parte de los países importadores. La magnitud de la importancia de un país como oferente de productos para sus principaìes países compradores no significa necesariamente, que será altamente susceptible a fluctuaciones en los ingresos de exportación, a pesar de que puede tener índices de concentración geográfica y de productos relativamente altos, medidos por medio del indice de concentración simple de Gini/Hirschman. Este estudio también examina el tama?o de países en relación con el íncice de comercio combinado y, a la vez, con el indice de inestabilidad comercial que es computado por medio del método de varianza logarítmica de Coppock. El sector de importaciones, que generalmente ha sido ignorado en la literatura de concentración, también es analizado a la luz del presente análisis.

     

Identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets: Lessons from the founding of the fed

We use the founding of the Federal Reserve to identify the effects of a lender of last resort. We examine stock return and interest rate volatility during September and October, when markets were vulnerable because of financial stringency from the harvest. Stock volatility fell by 40% and interest rate volatility by more than 70% following the monetary regime change. The drop is insignificant if major panic years are omitted from the analysis, however. Because business cycle downturns occurred in the same year as financial crises, our results suggest that the existence of the Federal Reserve reduced liquidity risk.     

From Invention to Innovation: Toward Developing an Integrated Innovation Model for Biotech Firms*

A review of extant literature reveals various theories on innovation, including technology push, market pull, and an organizational approach. All of these theories have been criticized for their lack of integration and inapplicability to today's competitive environment. An integrated view of innovation has emerged that synthesizes the variables in previous approaches. However, the application of this view has been restricted to investigating the innovation processes within the computer and manufacturing industries, whereas the biotechnology industry has been ignored. This is despite biotech managers' well‐acknowledged thirst for innovation and the ability of biotech to shape the way we live. The present article contributes to the literature by applying an integrated approach to the biotech industry, thereby extending understanding of innovation management beyond the traditional field of inquiry. An integrated approach is of particular relevance to biotech companies, given the complexities of managing the industry's long development cycle and intense collaborative activities. In‐depth interviews with eight organizations in Maryland formed the basis for an investigation into the challenges of managing the innovation process in biotechnology firms. The findings revealed that biotech entrepreneurs are ill prepared to lead their organizations through several transformations necessary along the product life cycle because of their fixation on a technology‐push approach and lack of an understanding of integrated innovation. These leaders also lack the commercialization knowledge necessary to push products to markets, resulting in avoidable delays and loss of productivity. The existing research has dispelled myths associated with biotech. Specifically, it suggests biotech entrepreneurs cannot rely solely on inventions but must invest in a timely application of knowledge to organizational and market forces to take full advantage of the innovation potential associated with the industry. This article presents a conceptual framework for applying the integrated innovation model to biotech firms and makes the case for incorporating market‐oriented mechanisms, building and using appropriate organizational capabilities, developing effective collaborations, and creating parallel interactions as major elements in a general strategy toward the success and improved efficiency of biotech companies. The limitations of current research are discussed, and avenues are highlighted for much‐needed future research into the biotech industry.     

Setting the X Factor in Price-Cap Regulation Plans

Despite the popularity of price-cap regulation in practice, the economic literature provides limited guidance on how to determine the X factor, which is the rate at which inflation-adjusted output prices must fall under price-cap plans. We review the relevant basic principles, and then determine how to set the X factor: (1) when only a subset of the firm's products are subject to price-cap regulation, and when product-specific costs and productivity cannot be measured; (2) when changes in regulated prices affect the economy-wide inflation rate; and (3) in the presence of such structural changes as strengthened competitive forces.     

The U.S. immigration debate: what’s all the shouting for?

Potential GDP growth has slowed by 1.3% a year. The main culprit is labor force decline. It follows logically that a more welcoming immigration policy would be responsive to our demographic challenges and thereby complementary to macroeconomic growth. Ironically, anger at immigration has grown in inverse proportion to actual immigration flows. There is little evidence that immigrants have negative impacts on the wages of native-born workers, and increased immigration would likely have a net positive fiscal impact. Based on these economic considerations, the U.S. immigration debate seems driven by much more heat than light.