A short proof of Deb’s Theorem on Schwartz’s rule

Schwartz in (Nous,7, 1972, Definition, 3) introduces a generalization of the Condorcet criterion, which is the classical approach to rational choice in the context of cycles, and he defines the Schwartz set. Deb (J Econ Theory 16:103–110, 1977) shows that the Schwartz set consists of the maximal elements according to the transitive closure of the asymmetric part of a binary relation corresponding to a choice process or representing the decision maker’s preferences. This note provides a short and simple proof of Deb’s theorem on the characterization of the Schwartz set.     

Stock market prediction using evolutionary support vector machines: an application to the ASE20 index

The main motivation for this paper is to introduce a novel hybrid method for the prediction of the directional movement of financial assets with an application to the ASE20 Greek stock index. Specifically, we use an alternative computational methodology named evolutionary support vector machine (ESVM) stock predictor for modeling and trading the ASE20 Greek stock index extending the universe of the examined inputs to include autoregressive inputs and moving averages of the ASE20 index and other four financial indices. The proposed hybrid method consists of a combination of genetic algorithms with support vector machines modified to uncover effective short-term trading models and overcome the limitations of existing methods. For comparison purposes, the trading performance of the ESVM stock predictor is benchmarked with four traditional strategies (a naïve strategy, a buy and hold strategy, a moving average convergence/divergence and an autoregressive moving average model), and a multilayer perceptron neural network model. As it turns out, the proposed methodology produces a higher trading performance, even during the financial crisis period, in terms of annualized return and information ratio, while providing information about the relationship between the ASE20 index and DAX30, NIKKEI225, FTSE100 and S&P500 indices.     

Volatility and error transmission spillover effects: Evidence from three European financial regions

This study uses the multivariate GARCH-BEKK modelling approach to examine the transmission of news (both volatility and error) between portfolios of cross-listed equities within three European financial regions, that is, the Scandinavian (Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway), the Germanic (Austria, Switzerland and Germany) and the French area (Brussels, France, Italy, Holland and Spain). We find that the Finnish and Danish portfolios of cross-listed equities are the main transmitters of volatility relative to the Swedish and Norwegian portfolios of cross-listed equities. On the other hand, the Swiss portfolio of cross-listed equities is the major exporter of volatility and error to the other portfolios of cross-listed equities in the Germanic stock market area. Finally, the Paris, Amsterdam and Brussels stock exchanges are the major exporters of volatility and error to the portfolios of cross-listed equities traded on the Milan and Madrid stock exchanges.     

Asset price volatility and government revenue

This paper investigates the effect of commercial, residential property and equity price volatility on the variability of cyclically adjusted government revenue. We find significant evidence that asset price volatility increases the variability of government revenue. A 1% increase in equity price volatility increases government revenue variability by 0.37–0.44%. An increase in residential property price volatility increases revenue volatility by about 0.15–0.22%, whereas this effect diminishes to 0.11% in case of commercial property price. This evidence reflects the automatic increase of government revenue variability due to asset price movements and supports arguments in favour of adjusting fiscal variables for both business cycle and asset price changes. However, we also find evidence that equity price variability increases revenue variability even when government revenue is adjusted for both economic and asset price cycles, indicating the presence of more complicated dynamics between fiscal variables and asset price changes.     

Fiscal policy and asset price volatility

This paper investigates the relationship between volatility of different asset prices and the volatility of various indicators of fiscal policy (primary balance, spending and revenue). We find evidence that asset price volatility affects the volatility of fiscal policy stance in a positive and significant way. The effect comes primarily through residential property and equity price volatility on government revenue and spending. Increased volatility in commercial property prices is associated with increased variability of government revenue. Output growth volatility is the dominant determinant of revenue and primary balance variability, whereas bad budgetary conditions and the size of the public sector are the most significant determinants of spending variability. Trade openness leads to greater variability of government spending, revenue and primary balance to GDP ratios.     

Investigating the Types of Value and Cost of Green Brands: Proposition of a Conceptual Framework

This conceptual article applies the customer value (CV) concept in the context of green marketing aiming to provide insights on the factors that motivate and/or hinder the development of consumer–green brand relationships. The article draws upon existing literature on the streams of CV, relationship marketing and environmental behaviour and synthesises relevant findings to propose an integrated conceptual framework entailing all identified types of value and cost, psychographic characteristics, as well as dimensions of relationship quality (RQ) and loyalty. Furthermore, it addresses existing questions on the links among constructs and proposes several relationships that may lead to a better understanding of consumer behaviour towards green brands. Through the here-proposed conceptual model, the article initiates the process of empirically examining the consumer adoption of and relationship development with green brands. The CV framework adopted here may provide practitioners with knowledge on the value and sacrifice factors, as well as the dimensions of RQ that are the most important in targeting green consumers and designing relationship marketing strategies. The article also fulfils an identified gap in the literature, as it is the first that brings together and applies research findings from CV and relationship marketing fields in the green marketing context and proposes an integrated approach to understanding consumer–green brands relationships.     

Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates

We explore the role of evolving beliefs regarding the structure of the macroeconomy in improving our understanding of the term structure of interest rates within the context of a simple macro-finance model. Using quarterly vintages of real-time data and survey forecasts for the United States over the past 40 years, we show that a recursively estimated VAR on real GDP growth, inflation and the nominal short-term interest rate generates predictions that are more consistent with survey forecasts than a benchmark fixed-coefficient counterpart. We then estimate a simple term structure model under the assumption that investor risk attitude is driven by near-term expectations of the three state variables. When we allow for evolving beliefs about the macroeconomy, the resulting term structure model provides a better fit to the cross section of yields than the benchmark model, especially at longer maturities, and exhibits better performance in out-of-sample predictions of future yield movements.     

An investor sentiment barometer — Greek Implied Volatility Index (GRIV)

In this paper, we propose a new measure of Greek equity market volatility based on the prices of FTSE/ATHEX-20 index options. Greek Implied Volatility Index is calculated using the model-free methodology that involves option prices summations and is independent from the Black and Scholes pricing formula. The specific method is applied for the first time in a peripheral and illiquid market as the Athens Exchange.The empirical findings of this paper show that the proposed volatility index includes information about future realized volatility beyond that contained in past volatility. In addition, our analysis indicates that there is a statistically significant negative and asymmetric contemporaneous relationship between the returns of the implied volatility index and the underlying equity index. Finally, the volatility transmission effects on the Greek stock exchange from two leading markets, namely the New York Stock Exchange and the Deutsche Börse, are tested and documented.     

Monetary policy and asset prices

The purpose of this paper is study the effect of monetary policy on asset prices. We study the properties of a monetary model in which a real asset is valued for its rate of return and for its liquidity. We show that money is essential if and only if real assets are scarce, in the precise sense that their supply is not sufficient to satisfy the demand for liquidity. Our model generates a clear connection between asset prices and monetary policy. When money grows at a higher rate, inflation is higher and the return on money decreases. In equilibrium, no arbitrage amounts to equating the real return of both objects. Therefore, the price of the asset increases in order to lower its real return. This negative relationship between inflation and asset returns is in the spirit of research in finance initiated in the early 1980s.     

OPTIMIZING PRODUCTION IN THE GREEK ECONOMY: EXPLORING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SOLID WASTE VIA INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS

We explore an input–output based framework for optimizing production in the Greek economy, under constraints relating to energy use, final demand, greenhouse gas emissions and solid waste. Using empirical data, we consider the effects on the maximum attainable gross value of production when imposing various pollution abatement targets. Our results quantify those effects as well as the magnitude of economic sacrifices required to achieve environmental goals, in a series of policy scenarios of practical importance. Because air pollution and solid waste are not produced independently of one another, we identify the settings in which it is meaningful to institute a separate policy for mitigating each pollutant, versus those in which only one pollutant needs to be actively addressed. The scenarios considered here represent a range of options that could be available to policy makers, depending on the country's international commitments and the effects on economic and environmental variables.