DEPENDENT GROWTH IN A CAPITAL-IMPORTING ECONOMY: THE CASE OF PUERTO RICO

LIKE most less developed capitalist economies, Puerto Rico hasrelied heavily on external capital. The long-run implicationsof externally financed growth are explored for Puerto Rico underalternative assumptions about domestic saving behaviour; theextent of external ownership and the gap between productionand income are projected. The 1950-70 pattern of growth impliedthat eventually about 25 per cent of GDP would be repatriatedand 90 per cent or more of the capital stock would be externallyowned. Recent events suggest that this pattern will be difficultto sustain.     

Accounting-Based Stock Price Anomalies: Separating Market Inefficiencies from Risk*

Abstract. We examine six accounting-based stock price anomalies using two sets of tests to determine the extent to which the anomalies (1) represent market mispricing or (2) reflect premia for unidentified risks. Market mispricing is indicated if the anomalous returns are concentrated around subsequent earnings announcements in patterns suggesting that the earnings information causes traders to re-examine their prior (incorrect) beliefs. Mispricing is also indicated if anomalous returns on zero-investment portfolios are positive, period after period. Our results indicate that an anomaly based on earnings momentum probably reflects market mispricing, but that two value-glamour anomalies (based on the book-market ratio and the earnings-price ratio), and two anomalies based on computerized fundamental analyses (from Ou and Penman 1989 and Holthausen and Larcker 1992) are more likely to reflect risk premia than indicated by prior research. Evidence on a sixth anomaly, based on price momentum, is mixed.     

The Share Economy with Efficiency Wages

This paper examines the cyclical implications of share contracts in an efficiency wage model, with wage and share economy firms facing a common labor market constraint. In the efficiency wage context, I find that the share economy will no longer remain at full employment in the face of modest-sized demand shocks. But suitably amended, Weitzman's (1983, 1984, 1985, 1986) conclusions regarding the cyclical employment benefits of share arrangements extend to an efficiency wage model.     

HOW SHOULD BANK REGULATORY AGENCIES BE ORGANIZED?

The U.S. Treasury Department (1991) makes a strong case for consolidating federal bank regulatory authority. However, its proposal to eliminate direct FDIC authority over insured nonmember banks contributes little to this end because deposit insurance requires supervisory oversight. The U.S. Treasury Department (1991) also maintains an independent role for the Federal Reserve. Elimination of neither the insurance agency nor the central bank appears practical. A better approach to regulatory agency consolidation would combine supervision with deposit insurance and central banking in an institutional structure modified somewhat from the present Federal Reserve structure.     

PRUDENCE AND SUCCESS IN POLITICS

The paper considers a repeated election game between an infinitely-lived representative voter and finitely-lived, heterogeneous politicians. The voter's prior belief about the incumbent's competency is updated during the incumbent's first term in office. The voter's problem is to find a rule that simultaneously selects and controls politicians. We show that the simple performance rule, standard in the literature, is justified as a time-consistent rule for a forward-looking voter. The outcome of a large class of perfect equilibria is "strategic caution": incumbent politicians slow down the voter's Bayesian learning by taking only weakly informative actions.     

Net Settlement and Counterparty Risk: Evidence from the Formation of the New York Stock Exchange Clearing House in 1892

The securities settlement literature indicates that centralized settlement can reduce monitoring incentives and lead to excessive risk‐taking and inefficient risk‐sharing. This paper examines broker‐failure rates and counterparty losses surrounding the transition from bilateral to multilateral settlement facilitated by the NYSE. Study results provide evidence that net settlement reduced failures without diminishing risk constraining incentives. The study constructs a controlled comparison of broker failures through data collected from the NYSE and the Consolidated Stock Exchange, which traded identical securities settled under different systems. The results suggest that multilateral settlement is advantageous when financial markets are highly stressed.     

An Exact Solution to a Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem under Transactions Costs

The presence of any friction in financial markets qualitatively changes the nature of the optimization problem faced by an investor. It requires one to either act or do nothing, an issue which, of course, does not arise in frictionless situations. The investor considered here accumulates wealth without consuming until some terminal point in time when he consumes all. His objective is to maximize the expected utility derived from that terminal consumption. We postpone the terminal point far into the future to obtain a stationary portfolio rule. The portfolio policy is in the form of two control barriers between which portfolio proportions are allowed to fluctuate. We show how to calculate them.