Socio-demographics,political attitudes and informal sector employment: A cross-country analysis

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between informal sector employment and micro-level socio-demographic characteristics, political acts and attitudes, and individual norms. Using self-reported individual micro-level data from the World Values Survey for seven developing countries (China, Ecuador, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Yemen), our cross-country regressions and principal component analysis reveal that socio-demographic characteristics of individuals are strong predictors of their informal sector employment. Our estimations further document that individual preferences for an economically strong, interventionist and egalitarian state and confidence in state and political institutions are positively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment, whereas variables associated with confidence in free market institutions and support for competition are negatively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment. We also show that individuals who participate either actively or inactively in peaceful and lawful political processes are significantly less likely to work in the informal sector. Finally, we document that individual norms, such as religiosity and tax morale, are negatively correlated with informal sector employment. Throughout our analysis, instead of having to rely on ad-hoc informality categorizations of third parties, we base our measurement of informal sector employment directly on the self-evaluation of individuals, who have the best information on the degree of their informality.     

“问题富豪”如何凸现中国银行业信贷管理缺陷？

福布斯在中国内地的出名，更多是因其著名的“富豪榜”，但最近的内地富豪中有几位却遇到了不小的“麻烦”。今年在上海举办的《福布斯》论坛中诸多议题之一的中国银行业也备受关注，而这几位遇到不小“麻烦”的富豪给中国的银行业起到了什么警惕作用呢？“问题富豪”反映出中国银行业信贷管理缺陷有哪些？就此，国务院发展研究中心经济研究副所长巴曙松博士特撰此稿。     

“脱媒”与商业银行业务模式转型

扩大直接融资，降低对于以银行贷款为主导的间接融资的依赖，是未来中国金融结构调整的一个基本趋势。近年来，在投资基金、企业债、短期融资券等创新金融工具的冲击厦资本充足监管的约束下，商业银行传统的业务模式正面临着调整。商业银行只有通过提高风险控制能力、开发多样化金融产品、拓展新的收入来源渠道，并借助金融创新应时贷款质量和信用等级的下降等，才能降低“脱媒”所带来的影响。     

社保基金监管的现状、问题与建议

目前,我国已经初步确立社保基金监管体制,取得了明显的成效.但依然存在着局部地区违规操作、管理体制不顺畅和相关法制、监管建设滞后等问题.从世界范围社会保障基金监管实践看,依托完备法律法规体制实施社保基金监管,确立社保基金监管部门、监管结构,赋予执法权威,社保基金监管向专业化、市场化发展成为社保基金监管的共同点.借鉴国际先进管理经验,我国应提高立法层次、建立完善的法律体制;强化监管力量,适当集中,构建主辅分明、多重监管的社保基金监管结构;推进社会保险基金监管的市场化.     

基于战略意图的战略联盟绩效评价指标体系研究

目前理论界对于企业战略联盟绩效评价的研究,大多数都是使用单纯的财务绩效指标对联盟的绩效进行评价。本文提出,联盟的绩效评价首先应当从组成联盟的企业的各自角度出发。其次由于不同的战略联盟的战略意图相差迥异,应当从战略联盟建立的战略意图出发,来设计评价战略联盟绩效的指标体系。首先对战略联盟各种战略意图作了一个系统的分析,然后提出一套基于战略意图的联盟绩效的评价指标体系,并给出了一种定量评价方法。     

企业年金风险监管的主要环节与政策框架

我国企业年金运营模式复杂,年金市场涉及金融机构类型众多,风险监管尤为重要。首先要加强信用风险监管,保证相关利益主体的相对独立性,注重投资风险和运行的公平。监管机构应当加强主动监管,推动协同监管框架的创新尝试,加强监管主体之间以及其自身部门之间的信息沟通,重点监管关联交易及其可能带来的风险。     

POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Formal and real ownership structure of the Polish economy: state-owned versus state-controlled enterprises

This article analyses the difference between the state’s formal and real shares in the Polish economy. We identify two basic types of corporate control exercised by the state over enterprises through ownership (in the case of majority ownership) and non-ownership tools (in the case of minority ownership). Consequently, we distinguish between two types of state enterprises: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state-controlled enterprises (SCEs). In post-communist economies, SCEs mainly originate from so-called reluctant privatisation, in which the transfer of ownership rights takes place without the appropriate transfer of control rights. We discuss the tools of non-ownership control used by the state. Our estimates of the real share of state enterprises in the Polish economy (which include both SOEs and SCEs) show that it is almost two times higher than the formal share (only SOEs). The share of state enterprises is also highest in the group of Poland’s largest and most important firms. We conclude that the real importance of state enterprises in the Polish economy is much higher than might be expected if only the formal share of state ownership is taken into account.     

《上海伙友》述论——兼及店员之生存状态

1920年10月创刊的<上海伙友>周刊,是上海工商友谊会的机关刊物,所载文章形式活泼,体裁多样.该刊主要面向店员发行.初期曾受中共影响,后转而宣传社会改良主义和劳资调和论.透过该刊"店员来信",可以从中看出当时店员复杂艰辛的生存状态.     

Measurement of organizational investments in social capital: The service employee perspective

This paper describes the development and validation of a measure of organizational investments in social capital (OISC). The scale development process is carried out over three stages (item generation, scale purification, scale validation), with two separate data collection phases involving a total of 735 working adults from multiple and diverse service-related workplace settings. As such, the data provide evidence for the face, content, discriminant, convergent and nomological validity, dimensionality and reliability of the OISC measure. The OISC measure is a concise, unidimensional scale that has the potential for significant usage in the development and testing of theory, as well as practical application in retail and other service provision contexts.