Nea presidential address: Economics programs at historically black colleges and universities

Conclusion If we wish to increase the number of students taking economics courses, the number of students majoring in economics and the number of students who want to learn more economics after they finish the required courses we must offer courses that students can understand, courses that answer questions that students either already know to be important or can be convinced are important.     

Vertical Networks and US Auto Parts Exports: Is Japan Different?

In a model where upstream network insiders conduct relationship-specific investment, downstream firms have an incentive to transact within networks. Evidence from US auto parts exports to 26 auto-producing countries supports key predictions of the model. Greater production scale for assemblers lowers imported parts per car. Vertical networks matter in two ways. First, although Japan's average import levels are not unusually low, non-Japanese suppliers have relatively low market penetration for parts categories where vertical keiretsu are prominent in Japan. Second, US-owned assembly abroad and foreign-owned parts production in the US both stimulate parts exports.     

Innovation Dynamics in OECD Countries: Challenges for German Enterprises

This paper considers the innovation dynamics in OECD countries since the beginning of the 1990s. Special attention is given to German firms that had the exceptional opportunity and burden to develop an innovative regime in the former GDR. The economic slump in the new decade had everywhere a negative impact on the propensity of companies to invest in new innovative products and processes. Among the OECD countries leading in innovation, Europe is loosing strength, although R&D has doubtlessly become more important in the innovation process of the manufacturing sector, but in particular in the service sector. The EU and some member countries have recognized this and formulated an ambitious objective: R&D expenditure is to be increased to 3% of GDP by 2010. Despite this joint target, countries differ in many respects. Export-oriented countries in high technology products suffer less from a weak economic momentum in their domestic markets. A further distinction needs to be made between the industry and the service sector. Industrial innovators focus more on the world market. After the trade diversion of West German high technology from international markets to the absorbing East German markets was over, in the second half of the 1990s, Germany has managed to get slightly ahead of Japan as an exporter of R&D-intensive goods and in international patent activities. However, the foreign trade success that the German technology sector enjoyed is mainly based on the automobile sector. Increasing problems in the long term are the decline in the number of qualified manpower entering the labour market. It will exacerbate the shortage of qualified staff in innovating companies.This is an updated and completely revised version of an earlier contribution to the Symposium on Entrepreneurship – Innovation – Marketing, Benchmarking the Technological Competitiveness of German Enterprises in Times of low Growth, Karlsruhe, October 2003.     

An alcohol fuels programme: Will it solve surplus grain production?

Long-run responses in the US agricultural sector to large alcohol programmes are examined. Potential domestic and export markets for grain by-products from alcohol production are calculated. The analyses consider the grain by-products from both wet and dry milling processing technologies. Results of these analyses indicate much smaller price responses and very different policy implications than previous studies. These different results are critical in the consideration of utilizing alcohol programmes to boost grain prices, as well as in the consideration of the economics of alcohol programmes to provide an alternative fuel.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF ASSET INCOME AMONG THE ELDERLY*

This paper focuses on the income patterns among the elderly. The life cycle hypothesis suggests that income and assets will decline after retirement. Data from the 1980 U.S. decennial census confirms that total income declines for succeeding elderly cohorts. The census data, however, shows that income from assets for elderly cohorts increases until the cohort aged 85 years and older. This pattern is similar for different sex-marital groups. Recent research that has addressed the issue of savings among the elderly is summarized and four possible explanations for the increase in income from assets found in the decennial census are discussed. We conclude by suggesting the implications of this data for the life cycle theory and public policy.     

Escalation bias: Does it extend to marketing?

Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are doing poorly over those doing well. We tested this implication in a marketing context by conducting experiments on advertising and product-design decisions. Each situation was varied to reflect either a long-term or a short-term decision. Besides these four conditions, we conducted three replications. We found little evidence of escalation bias by 365 subjects in the seven experimental comparisons. J. Scott Armstrong has been a professor at The Wharton School since 1968. During this time he has also been a visiting professor in Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, and Argentina. He is a founder and past editor of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting. In addition to forecasting, he has published research on strategic planning, the scientific method, social responsibility, and survey research methods. holds an M.Sc. (Technology Management) and B.Comm. (Marketing) from the University of Saskatchewan, Canada. Nicole’s dissertation research focuses on the internationalization process of software developers. In particular, she examines “deviations” in international linkage development by small firms, with a focus on marketing management issues. Her other research interests relate to entrepreneurial growth, the marketing/manufacturing interface, and strategic planning processes. Barbara Safranek worked as a marketing consultant in Japan and was then co-president of the Friends of Japan (Tokyo, Japan) for three years. Currently she is vice-president of Japanese Equities-Sales at S.G. Warburg & Co.