Worker Flows and Job Flows in Danish Manufacturing, 1980-91

We map turnover of workers and jobs in Danish manufacturing over the 1980 to 1991 period, using information about all individual manufacturing plants. We examine the relation between worker flows and job flows and we study separations from and hires to existing jobs ('replacement hiring') in detail. Our results reveal large heterogeneity among workers as well as plants, even adjusting for the level of job flows. The cyclical properties of worker reallocation point to worker flow dynamics being driven by workers quitting in upturns to find better jobs, rather than by plants upgrading the labour force in recessions.     

Structural Change in OECD Export Specialisation Patterns: de-specialisation and ‘stickiness’

This paper examines whether the OECD countries are characterised by a high degree of stability of their export specialisation patterns at the country level or not. Furthermore, we test whether the countries have become more or less specialised. In this context we distinguish between specialisation (or de-specialisation) in trade patterns on the one hand, and divergence (or, on the contrary, convergence) on the other. A specialisation process refers to a process in which specialisation intra-country becomes more dispersed (and counter-wise for de-specialisation). In contrast, a divergence process refers to a process in which countries become more different in terms of specialisation in a particular sector, across countries (and counter-wise for convergence). We examine the sensitivity for the level of aggregation, and we apply a period of nearly three decades from 1965 to 1992. Twenty OECD countries are considered. The intra-country results show that the national specialisation patterns are rather sticky, although there is a tendency for countries to de-specialise in the medium to long term. The sector-wise results display convergence both in terms of β-and σ-convergence. In conclusion, we discuss the results (de-specialisation in particular) in the context of economic integration, and furthermore we contrast the findings with similar exercises conducted on structural change in technological specialisation.     

Life‐Cycle Patterns of Interest‐Rate Mark‐Ups in Small‐Firm Finance*

We derive empirical implications from a theoretical model of bank–borrower relationships. The interest‐rate mark‐ups of banks are predicted to follow a life‐cycle pattern over the age of the borrowing firms. Because of endogenous bank monitoring by competing banks, borrowing firms initially face a low mark‐up, and thereafter an increasing mark‐up as a result of informational lock‐in, until it falls for older firms when the lock‐in is resolved. By applying a large sample of predominantly small unlisted firms and a new measure of asymmetric information, we find that firms with significant asymmetric‐information problems have a more pronounced life‐cycle pattern of interest‐rate mark‐ups. Additionally, we examine the effects of concentrated banking markets on interest‐rate mark‐ups. The results indicate that the life cycle of mark‐ups is mainly driven by asymmetric‐information problems and not by concentration. However, we find evidence that bank market concentration matters for older firms ? 2 Correction added after online publication on 20^th February 2012; the original text read ‘However, we find evidence that bank market concentration for older firms’, omitting the word ‘matters’.
     

Arab socialism in Egypt

The characteristic feature of ‘Arab socialism’, as practised in Egypt, is public ownership of the modern sectors, including finance and trade. Efficiency, in these sectors, and perhaps in agriculture, however, has suffered. Despite some improvement in distribution, following confiscation of larger businesses and rural estates, Egyptian society cannot be considered egalitarian. Egypt's system of agrarian co-operatives is perhaps the only feature of Arab socialism worth imitating.     

Market segmentation,advertising and the concept of communication systems

In this paper, attempts have been made to: (1) examine some of the underlying causes of the difficulties in which the advertising industry finds itself; and (2) to propose a basis for a reconceptualization of the role and function of that industry. The basis proposition is that the advertising industry has failed to evolve strategically because it has become locked into ways of thinking about communication and market segmentation which are inadequate and limiting in some crucial ways. By way of an alternative mode of thinking, it is proposed that natural market segments arise from the manner in which people establish and maintain ways of knowing and acting. Since they do so basically in communication with others, the concept of communication system is proposed as a means of identifying such natural market segments. By segmenting markets into various functioning communication systems (as distinct from purely statistical categorizations) and by formulating advertising strategies accordingly, advertisers are more likely to be able to communicate effectively and less likely to find themselves accused of misleading or irrelevant advertising.     

What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview

This paper takes stock of megaproject management, an emerging and hugely costly field of study, by first answering the question of how large megaprojects are by measuring them in the units of mega, giga, and tera, and concluding with how we are presently entering a new “tera era” of trillion‐dollar projects. Second, total global megaproject spending is assessed, at US$6 to US$9 trillion annually, or 8% of the total global gross domestic product (GDP), which denotes the biggest investment boom in human history. Third, four “sublimes”—political, technological, economic, and aesthetic—are identified and used to explain the increased size and frequency of megaprojects. Fourth, the “iron law of megaprojects” is laid out and documented: Over budget, over time, over and over again. Moreover, the “break–fix model” of megaproject management is introduced as an explanation of the iron law. Fifth, Albert O. Hirschman's theory of the “Hiding Hand” is revisited and critiqued as unfounded and corrupting for megaproject thinking in both the academy and policy. Sixth, it is shown how megaprojects are systematically subject to “survival of the unfittest,” which explains why the worst projects get built rather than the best. Finally, it is argued that the conventional way of managing megaprojects has reached a “tension point,” in which tradition is being challenged and reform is emerging.     

Debt Crises and Risk‐Sharing: The Role of Markets versus Sovereigns

Using a variance decomposition of shocks to gross domestic product (GDP), we quantify the role of international factor income, international transfers, and saving in achieving risk‐sharing during the recent European crisis. We focus on the subperiods 1990–2007, 2008–2009, and 2010 and consider separately the European countries hit by the sovereign debt crisis in 2010. We decompose risk‐sharing from saving into contributions from government and private saving, and show that fiscal austerity programs played an important role in hindering risk‐sharing during the sovereign debt crisis.     

丹麦的福利政策

丹麦的福利政策已经成为与市场经济、技术和社会可能协调发展的一个范例 ,与此同时 ,这一政策能够确保社会成员的高度平等 ,也使得社会福利政策能更好地关注儿童、老年人及卫生事业。这一政策同时能够确保丹麦人享有较高的生活水平 ,也能够确保丹麦经济的持续发展。《丹麦福利政策的历史》一文阐释了形成这一政策的关键原因是核心人物在制定这一政策方面所表现出的高度一致 ,即初期主要是工人、农民的意愿 ,但随后各主要党派对创造平等的生活水平作为目标都形成了政治共识。因此 ,与其它国家相比 ,丹麦的福利政策能够将占GDP比重较高的税…     

The riot as politics

Conclusion Two independent tests with a total of 36 large and medium-sized non-southern cities have demonstrated support for a political explanation of the major riots of the 1960s. It is argued that politically interested and motivated segments of the black community were disaffected because of the failure of government to respond to their demands. Their participation turned minor disorders into major uprisings. An alternative hypothesis, that public policy response generates increased expectations and ultimately greater violence, has been rejected. However, the findings rest upon the riot experience of a small number of cities in the 1960s. It seems very unlikely that the public policies of these cities would have much impact on the expectations of their black citizens and thus the rationale of the alternative hypothesis is undermined. The public policies of other governments, at other times, might have more influence on the expectations of their citizens. Additional research would be required to identify circumstances under which public policy response might lead to increased expectations, disaffection, and ultimately greater violence.