Risk sharing through capital gains

Abstract We estimate channels of international risk sharing between European Monetary Union (EMU), European Union, and other OECD countries, 1992–2007. We focus on risk sharing through savings, factor income flows, and capital gains. Risk sharing through factor income and capital gains was close to zero before 1999 but has increased since then. Risk sharing from capital gains, at about 6%, is higher than risk sharing from factor income flows for European Union countries and OECD countries. Risk sharing from factor income flows is higher for euro zone countries, at 14%, reflecting increased international asset and liability holdings in the euro area.     

EFFICIENCY GAINS IN BETA-PRICING MODELS1

Recent literature shows that the risk premium is efficiently estimated in the usual two-pass procedure, estimating betas in the unrestricted model, and then regressing returns on estimated betas. This paper shows that this is not so when allowing for factor unobservability. Imposing the financial theory restriction from the outset leads to a strictly positive efficiency gain in the risk premium estimation. In addition, the role of an associated efficiency gain in the beta estimation is studied in the context of a zero-beta model.     

Danish Evidence of Auditors' Level of Moral Reasoning and Predisposition to Provide Fair Judgements

The community has legislatively conferred on external auditors a special but lucrative responsibility to provide fair and independent opinions about management's preparation of company financial statements. In return, auditors are obliged by professional standards to act with integrity, independently and in the public interest. This study examined 174 auditors' predisposition to provide just and fair judgements, using Kohlberg's theory of developmental moral reasoning, one of the most widely accepted theories in justice psychology. Respondents came from five international audit firms in Copenhagen. Results indicated that auditors with pre-conventional or low level of just reasoning or comprised 64 respondents, the largest group in the sample. The pre-conventional level suggests that people will act in their own self-interest and do the right only to avoid punishment. Pre-conventional auditors have the ability to "do deals", advantageous for business. When faced with an ethical crisis, however, auditors as this level will tend to focus on their own needs at the expense of others. The post-conventional or mid level of just reasoning comprised 59 auditors, second largest group in the sample. This level indicates that these auditors have the predisposition to act fairly on principal, particularly when faced with an ethical crisis. The conventional level or mid-just reasoning consisted of 51 auditors. People with a conventional level of just reasoning believe in law and order, the maintenance of the status quo, however they tend not to be critical of laws, nor authority even if those laws and authority are unjust or evil.     

Obituary

The environmental risk associated with genetically modified organisms (GMO) implies that new approaches to risk assessment, risk management and risk communication are needed. In this paper we discuss the role of the precautionary principle in policy responses to GMO risk. We first discuss application of the criteria in the European Environment Agency report “Late lessons from early warnings: The precautionary principle 1896–2000” to environmental GMO risk, with focus on crop plants. Moreover, we discuss Bayesian analysis in the context of improving the informational basis for decision‐making under uncertainty. Finally, environmental uncertainties are intertwined with economic uncertainties. Providing incentives for improved risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is crucial for enhancing environmental and social responsibility and thereby facilitate implementation of precautionary approaches. We discuss environmental and social screening of companies as an example of how such incentives can be provided.     

MNC strategies and linkage effects in developing countries

The study addresses the implications MNC strategies have for linkage effects in developing countries. Two contrasting MNC strategies, which reflect an integration-responsiveness dichotomy, are scrutinized in terms of their effects on jobs among local linkage partners in developing countries. It is hypothesized that the investments of MNCs pursuing local responsiveness create more jobs among local linkage partners, but imply less job upgrading, when compared to investments undertaken by MNCs following strategies of global integration. The hypotheses are tested on a sample of Danish MNCs with extensive investments in developing countries.     

Asymptotic normality of narrow-band least squares in the stationary fractional cointegration model and volatility forecasting

We consider semiparametric frequency domain analysis of cointegration between long memory processes, i.e. fractional cointegration, allowing derivation of useful long-run relations even among stationary processes. The approach is due to Robinson (1994b. Annals of Statistics 22, 515–539) and uses a degenerating part of the periodogram near the origin to form a narrow-band frequency domain least squares (FDLS) estimator of the cointegrating relation, which is consistent for arbitrary short-run dynamics. We derive the asymptotic distribution theory for the FDLS estimator of the cointegration vector in the stationary long memory case, thus complementing Robinson's consistency result. An application to the relation between the volatility realized in the stock market and the associated implicit volatility derived from option prices is offered.     

Interaction effects in econometrics

We provide practical advice for applied economists regarding robust specification and interpretation of linear regression models with interaction terms. We replicate a number of prominently published results using interaction effects and examine if they are robust to reasonable specification permutations.     

Flexible Adjustment in the Age of Financialisation: The Case of Norway

Norway's “Government Pension Fund” – Global (GPF-G) is large (around $400b), portfolio oriented and transparent. It tries to be ethical and has been mooted as a role model for other SWFs. The way the GPF-G is set up undergirds the US vision of a financialised world economy and it even indirectly supports US warfare in Iraq by buying treasury bills. It is also a leader in ethical investments – more than 20 private funds piggyback any divestment decision the GPF-G makes. Understanding the international implications of the GPF-G does not, however, amount to an explanation of why this vehicle was created. This article puts forward the argument that if we want to understand why and how these diverse behaviours cohere into a larger strategic whole, the fund must be interpreted as the continuation and technocratisation of a long established corporatist tradition of foreign economic policy that Peter Katzenstein more than 25 years ago labelled a strategy of flexible adjustment and domestic compensation.