Lifecycle‐based donor performance analysis

With charities of all sizes now having the ability to collect and store very large quantities of data about their donors on in‐house database systems, detailed donor performance analyses have an increasingly essential role to play in the effective planning and management of fundraising. If, however, such activities are to support fully the work of fundraisers then it is important that they are undertaken from the perspective of the fundraiser rather than of the specialist data analyst. This paper introduces an approach to donor performance analysis that is founded on what is termed a ‘donor lifecycle model’. The aim of this is to provide a formal analysis methodology that provides end results that can be more easily interpreted by nonspecialists and so more effectively used in support of the efficient planning of fundraising programmes. Copyright © 2000 Henry Stewart Publications     

Asymmetric Adjustment in the City of London Office Market

Earlier estimates of the behavior of the City of London office market are extended by considering a longer time series of data, covering two full cycles, and by explicitly modeling asymmetric space market responses to employment and supply shocks. A long run structural model linking real rental levels, office-based employment and the supply of office space is estimated and then rental adjustment processes are modeled using an error correction model framework. Rental adjustment is seen to be asymmetric, depending both on the direction of the supply and demand shocks and on the state of the space market at the time of the shock. Vacancy adjustment does not display statistically significant asymmetries. There is also a supply adjustment equation. Two three-equation systems, one with symmetric rental adjustment and the other with asymmetric adjustment, are subjected to positive and negative shocks to employment. These illustrate differences in the properties of the two systems.     

The impact of the global economic crisis on sovereign wealth funds

This paper analyses the effects of the recent global economic crisis upon sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Since mid-2007, SWFs have experienced significant portfolio losses, a decline in fund inflows, and enhanced scrutiny from their own governments. SWFs have been utilised for sovereign stabilisation programs and have helped finance troubled Western banks. SWFs and the IMF have also created a set of best practices known as the Santiago Principles. From these developments, many SWFs have moved to relatively shorter investment time horizons and more liquid holdings, revamped their transparency and management, experienced a temporary improvement in their images, begun to hold controlling stakes in major Western corporations, and have improved their coordination with institutional investors and other SWFs. Going forward, these changes, alongside the relatively strong post-crisis asset position held by SWFs in comparison to other asset vehicles, make SWFs well-positioned to play an even more prominent role in global finance.     

HOW CHANGES IN BOND CALL FEATURES AFFECT COUPON RATES

In April 1998, Level 3, a telecommunications company, sold $2 billion of 9.19%, ten-year bonds to finance the building of a fiber-optic network. Like most below-investment-grade issues, as well as many investment-grade issues, the Level 3 issue contained an embedded call option that gave the company the right to repurchase the bonds after five years at par value plus the (semi-annual) coupon rate, with the call price declining to par two years before maturity.
Because issuers must pay for the call provision in the form of a higher coupon rate, the choice of whether or not to include a call option can be a difficult one. And, once management decides to include a call option, it must then decide how to structure the call. The most important call structure decisions are how long to make the call protection period and how to set the call price—both of which can have a significant impact upon the coupon yields required to attract investors. Using a well-known option pricing model, the authors of this article summarize their recent research on how variations in bond call features can be expected to affect par coupon yields of new issues under different market circumstances—circumstances that include market conditions relevant to option valuation such as the shape of the term structure and the volatility of interest rates.     

Agenda formation and accounting standards setting: lessons from the standards setters

There are many studies on lobbying of accounting standards, but the technical agenda of regulators is taken as ‘given’ and why a particular topic was admitted to the agenda is not investigated. Agenda formation is important as control of the agenda determines which topics get regulated and the form of the regulatory response. A few studies have explored agenda formation across regulatory institutions but are largely silent on the role of individual decision makers and technical staff. However, the standards setters have sought to explain their agenda processes. This paper reviews statements by the members of accounting standards setting agencies about their experiences of agenda formation. It identifies insights gained from standard setters and makes some suggestions for future research.     

Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings*

We add health and longevity to a standard model of life‐cycle saving and show that, under plausible assumptions, increases in life expectancy lead to higher savings rates at every age, even when retirement is endogenous. In a stationary population these higher savings rates are offset by increased old age dependency, but during the disequilibrium phase, when longevity is rising, the effect on aggregate savings rates can be substantial. We find empirical support for this effect using a cross‐country panel of national savings rates.     

Non-Parametric Regression Models of Deviations from Othogonality in the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure

Regression tests of the expectations theory of the term structure typically reject the null hypothesis of orthogonality between implied forecast errors and the yield spreads. In the statistical literature on the term structure, these rejections are sometimes attributed to time-varying liquidity premia, and Engle et al . (1987) suggest that the ARCH-M model of time-variation in the liquidity premium may be sufficient to account for rejections of the expectations theory. We use non-parametric (kernel) regression to explore the regression test results on a number of data sets, and find some evidence of a persistent deviation from orthogonality for large absolute values of the spread. Incorporating ARCH-in-mean into models of the term premium indicates that this specification does explain significant time variation in liquidity premia, but the effect does not apepar to be sufficient to account for all of the deviations from orthogonality of forecast errors and spreads.     

卓有成效的技术创新

<正>苹果公司推出的新款iPod音乐 摇放器已被业内公认为是现代技术工 艺和设计创新的绝对典范。这款播放 器从外观、功能甚至使用的便捷性都 成为了美国的专利,然而它能受到如 此广大用户的青睐还是源于它的新颖 独特。