Are Expected Inflation Rates and Expected Real Rates Negatively Correlated? A Long‐Run Test of the Mundell‐Tobin Hypothesis

Some empirical evidence suggests that the expected real interest and expected inflation rates are negatively correlated. This hypothesis of negative correlation is sometimes known as the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis. In this article we reinvestigate this negative relation from a long‐term point of view using cointegration analysis. The data on the historical interest rate on T‐bills and the inflation rate indicate that the Mundell‐Tobin hypothesis does not hold in the long run for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. We also obtain similar results using the real interest rate on index‐linked gilt traded in the United Kingdom.     

Commodity currencies

This paper looks at real exchange rate behavior by focusing on three OECD economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) where primary commodities constitute a significant share of their exports. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the US dollar price of their commodity exports (generally exogenous to these small economies) has a strong and stable influence on their floating real rates, with the magnitude of the effects consistent with predictions of standard theoretical models. However, after controlling for commodity price shocks, there is still a purchasing power parity puzzle in the residual. The results here are relevant to developing commodity-exporting countries as they liberalize their capital markets and move towards floating exchange rates.     

Modernization in Mainland China:

A bstract . After 1949, mainland China, a developing socialist country, adopted an inward-looking policy with emphasis on self-reliance and economic independence. However, in their drive for economic reform that began in 1978, mainland China drifted to the new doctrine of "taking self-reliance as the principal means and external assistance as a subsidiary." A version of the two-gap model is constructed to test the hypothesis that both domestic capital accumulation and foreign capital inflows affect economic development in mainland China , the latter being an indicator of modernization. Due to insufficient data, pooled cross-section and time-series data for the period 1984–1986 are employed. The quantitative evidence suggests that foreign capital inflows, instead of domestic capital accumulation, have importantly affected the modernization drive of mainland China. The recent political turmoil in mainland China has slowed down foreign capital inflows which in turn may retard its modernization.     

联合基数确定法: 一个激励相容的财务学范本

委托代理制是企业机制设计理论的重要内容，科学界定委托人代理人之间的权利关系，合理分享剩余权，是形成激励相容机制的重要环节，本文介绍的利润基数联合确定法是杭州商学院院长胡祖光教授的国家自然科学基金课题成果，它为解决委托人与代理人之间的信息不对称，激励代理人的自动努力，提供了值得借鉴的财务解决方法，同时，该方案宽泛的约束条件（见两则案例），为不同所有制企业提供了具有弹性的激励方案。     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

中国当前的财政政策及趋势

中国自1998年到2004年间实施的积极财政政策,对保持经济平稳增长,缓解通货紧缩,优化经济结构,促进就业和促进区域经济均衡发展等方面发挥了积极的作用。随着中国宏观经济形势的变化,以及考虑到防范公共风险,积极财政政策应作相应的调整。2005年,中国实施了稳健的财政政策(也就是经济学意义上的中性财政政策),其政策核心是适度减少财政赤字和长期建设国债的规模,并对财政分配结构进行调整。中国未来一段时期特别是“十一五”前期应继续实施稳健的财政政策。     

基于胜任力结构的企业家才能分析

一、企业家才能的相关理论在西方经济学界,人们认为劳动、资本、土地、企业家才能四部分构成了生产要素,在这四种生产要素中企业家才能则是其灵魂性的要素。企业家才能是指企业领导的经营管理和创新能力,包括创新能力、合作精神、敬业精神、竞争意识、冒险精神、自信、判断能力     

民族地区投融资机制的构建与经济可持续发展

金融日益成为现代经济的核心，资本形成对经济增长具有重要作用。民族地区作为一个金融抑制较为严重的地区，在经济社会发展的历史进程中，必须通过投融资机制创新为资本形成创出更为广阔的空间，充分发挥金融对于促进民族地区经济可持续发展的重要作用。     

试论我党新的执政理念的形成和发展

我们党在半个多世纪的执政活动中逐渐形成了一系列成熟而鲜明、凝结着中央几代领导集体和全党智慧、体现马克思主义政党特征及其中华民族核心价值观，并被实践证明完全符合执政规律的执政理念。以中共十六大和新任总书记胡锦涛2003年7月1日讲话为标志，中国的改革发展和执政理念都进入到一个新的阶段。以胡锦涛为总书记的新一届中央领导集体，站在时代和中国发展的高度，先后对“两个务必”、执政为民、科学发展、求真务实、和平崛起等进行了一系列论述，使我党的执政理念实现了一次新的飞跃。     

加快安徽省农业产业化经营发展的思考

农业产业化经营是在新形势下为了解决农业和农村经济发展深层次矛盾,在实践基础上发展起来的新型农业经营方式。发展农业产业化是完善社会主义市场经济体制的客观要求,是生产关系适应生产力发展的产物。农业产业化经营组织模式对农业产业化经营效率有重要影响。本文通过分析安徽省农业产业化的发展状况,结合当前的特殊形势,提出了推动安徽农业产业化发展的对策取向。