Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on global trade flows in gauging international trade developments. We employ a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) trade model, augmented with value-added bilateral trade linkages, that allows for quantifying the effects of economy-specific uncertainty shocks on exports and imports of individual economies. We find substantial spatial propagation in the temporal dynamics of international transmission of shocks amidst the manifestations of cross-border global value chains (GVCs) with China’s accession into the WTO. We provide evidence for the significance of EPU of China and the United States, particularly the latter, in influencing global trade flows. Our results show that while the US impacts can largely be attributed to its indirect trade linkages with other economies, the impacts of China can be relegated more to its direct GVC linkages. The findings have implications on trade protectionist inclinations of the current-term US government and the ongoing efforts of China’s policymakers in steering macroeconomic rebalancing for sustainable growth.     

War and socialism: why eastern Europe fell behind between 1950 and 1989†

This article reconsiders the relative growth performance of centrally planned economies in the broader context of postwar growth in Europe. It reports a new dataset of revised estimates for investment rates in eastern European countries between 1950 and 1989. Complemented with data on other growth determinants, this evidence is used to re‐evaluate the socialist growth record in a conditional convergence framework with a panel of 24 European countries. After controlling for relative backwardness, investment rates, and improvements in human capital, the findings show that centrally planned economies underperformed due to their relative inefficiency only after the postwar golden age. In the 1950s and 1960s, eastern Europe was falling behind mainly due to relatively low levels of investment and weak reconstruction dynamics. Both are explained, in part, by the lack of labour‐supply flexibility that, in turn, resulted from the comparatively much larger negative impact of the war on population growth in eastern Europe.     

Sectoral analysis of foreign direct investment and growth in the developed countries

Empirical studies on foreign direct investment (FDI) and growth in developed countries have yielded conflicting results using cross-country regressions. We use sectoral data for a group of six country members of the OECD. Our paper is the first to identify the sector-specific impact of FDI on growth in the developed countries. Our results show that FDI has positive, or no statistically discernible, effect on economic growth directly and through its interaction with labor. Moreover, we find the effects seem to be very different across countries and economic sectors.     

Facts-up-front: should food companies follow the FDA or industry label format? The effects of combining virtue and vice information on consumer evaluations

This research examines consumers’ processing of Facts-up-front food labels as implemented by the Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA). Facts-up-front labels include both positive (virtues) and negative (vices) nutritional icons. The processing and relative efficacy of Facts-up-front labels are compared to the original FDA proposal of front-of-pack labels which only included vices. The results suggest heuristic processing of these labels, whereby consumers consider the nutritional icons on the front-of-pack labels similar to affective stimuli. The addition of virtues alongside vices on the label has a compensatory effect, i.e., the food item is evaluated as healthier when there are both virtues and vices on the label compared to when there are only vices. Such heuristic processing of Facts-up-front labels that allows nutritional virtues to compensate for nutritional vices has the potential for consumers evaluating harmful foods as relatively “healthy” thus compromising consumer well-being. These findings illustrate the importance of empirically testing changes to nutritional labels before large scale implementation. Since consumers process front-of-pack labels heuristically and not cognitively, it is not surprising that nutritional literacy does not moderate the effects of label design on healthiness evaluations. Furthermore, the order of the negative and positive information on Facts-up-front labels also has no effect.

     

Earnings Management by Non‐profit Organisations: Evidence from UK Charities

Informed by stakeholder theory and resource dependence theory, this paper investigates whether UK charities are engaged in earnings management practices. Based on a sample of 1414 charities over a five‐year period (2008–2012) the study firstly finds that UK charities use discretionary accruals to drive their financial results towards a zero surplus/deficit; this result also reveals that the distribution of reported earnings around zero is prevalent amongst UK charities. In addition, in contrast to prior findings, the empirical results point to a significant association between leverage and earnings management behaviour by charities. Lastly, this study finds that the practice of earnings management is influenced by non‐profit organisational size.     

Does SEC FRR No. 48 disclosure communicate risk management effectiveness?

We hypothesize that the quality of market risk disclosure mandated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Financial Reporting Release No. 48 (FRR No. 48) provides useful information for assessing risk management effectiveness. Measuring risk disclosure quality as the degree of modification, we find that higher-than-expected disclosure modification is associated with lower future cash flow volatility. On average, an increase in risk disclosure modification from the lowest to the highest decile is associated with a 5.34 percent decrease in cash flow volatility. Given the significant impact of cash flow volatility on firm value and capital investment, our results highlight the importance of market risk disclosures and should be of interest to investors and analysts.     

A NEW COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE FREE‐FLOATING AND CURRENCY BOARD REGIMES IN HONG KONG

This study aims to compare the performance of free‐floating and currency board regimes for Hong Kong by examining historical data of the two on the output growth and inflation rate. Structural vector autoregression has been applied in the empirical analysis. Without making a strong assumption of unit variance in the residual matrix, this study applies a more natural approach proposed by Cecchetti and Rich to recover the structural parameters. The study has further investigated the recovery of the economy under a demand shock under different exchange rate regimes, in order to provide some evidence to answer why Hong Kong's recovery process after the Asian financial crisis is relatively longer than that in other economies with a managed floating exchange rate regime. New evidence in this study indicates that output recovers much faster in a flexible exchange rate regime than in a fixed exchange rate regime after an aggregate demand shock. Furthermore, this study has applied a more robust method in the counterfactual analysis when comparing the two regimes. New evidence in this study suggests that a free‐floating regime may generate much smaller output variance in Hong Kong and deliver higher output and price levels to Hong Kong.     

Inequality and Saving: Further Evidence from Integrated Economies

Renewed attention to inequality and saving has arisen owing to their pronounced implications for global imbalances and financial crises. We show that the relationship between saving and inequality is negative if savers' funds are borrowed by spending households for consumption as in the USA, but positive if saving is allocated through financial systems to investing firms for production as in China. This theoretical result is largely consistent with empirical evidence found from these two increasingly integrated economies and other related countries by estimating panel‐data models. The policy implication is that inequality must be reduced in order to increase saving in the USA and other Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries and to boost consumption in China and other parts of emerging Asia.