Should We Worry about Government Debt? Thoughts on Australia's COVID-19 Response

No. While the COVID-19 crisis has required a dramatic increase in debt-financed government spending, in the current conditions the benefits from this debt are unusually high and the costs unusually low. While conditions can change, the Australian Government can right now hedge against these risks by lengthening the maturity structure of government debt, even at the cost of a modest increase in its current servicing costs.     

Economic evaluation for the US of nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine versus FOLFIRINOX versus gemcitabine in the treatment of metastatic pancreas cancer

Background: Nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine (NAB-P?+?GEM) and FOLFIRINOX have shown superior efficacy over gemcitabine (GEM) in the treatment of metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDA). Although the incremental clinical benefits are modest, both treatments represent significant advances in the treatment of a high-mortality cancer. In this independent economic evaluation for the US, the aim was to estimate the comparative cost-utility and cost-effectiveness of these three regimens from the payer perspective.

Methods: In the absence of a direct treatment comparison in a single clinical trial, the Bucher indirect comparison method was used to estimate the comparative efficacy of each regimen. A Markov model evaluated life years (LY) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained with NAB-P?+?GEM and FOLFIRINOX over GEM, expressed as incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER) and cost-utility ratios (ICUR). All costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%/year. The impact of parameter uncertainty on the model was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

Results: NAB-P?+?GEM was associated with differentials of +0.180 LY and +0.127 QALY gained over GEM at an incremental total cost of $25,965; yielding an ICER of $144,096/LY and ICUR of $204,369/QALY gained. FOLFIRINOX was associated with differentials of +0.368 LY and +0.249 QALY gained over GEM at an incremental total cost of $93,045; yielding an ICER of $253,162/LY and ICUR of $372,813/QALY gained. In indirect comparison, the overall survival hazard ratio (OS HR) for NAB-P?+?GEM vs FOLFIRINOX was 0.79 (95%CI?=?0.59–1.05), indicating no superiority in OS of either regimen. FOLFIRINOX had an ICER of $358,067/LY and an ICUR of $547,480/QALY gained over NAB-P?+?GEM. Tornado diagrams identified variation in the OS HR, but no other parameters, to impact the NAB-P?+?GEM and FOLFIRINOX ICURs.

Conclusions: In the absence of a statistically significant difference in OS between NAB-P?+?GEM and FOLFIRINOX, this US analysis indicates that the greater economic benefit in terms of cost-savings and incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratios favors NAB-P?+?GEM over FOLFIRINOX.     

Migrant workers and involuntary non‐permanent jobs: agencies as new IR actors?

Using Quarterly Labour Force Survey data this article illustrates the involuntary crowding of migrants from Central and Eastern Europe into non‐permanent work when moving to the United Kingdom. The role of agencies in mediating this relationship is examined, as is their new role as actors in industrial relations systems.     

Customers’ savings rate and share of wallet: the moderating role of religion and ethnicity/immigrant generation vis-à-vis attitude as mediator

This study explores the role of attitude toward money, religion and ethnicity in the relationship between income and consumer behavior. The three-country (Australia, Canada and China) study sampled 755 consumers and uses structural equation modeling and multivariate analysis to test for mediating effects of attitude toward money and moderating effects of religion and ethnicity/immigrant generation. Religion is found to be a moderating variable for savings rate and share of wallet, while ethnicity/immigrant generation only moderates the association between income and savings rate. We also demonstrate the interaction effects of religion and ethnicity/immigrant generation with income as determinants of savings rate and share of wallet. This research provides the foundation for modeling savings rate and share of wallet, incorporating attitude, religion, and ethnicity/immigrant generation, as well as income, demonstrating the need to include other factors (i.e. demographic factors in addition to attitudinal/satisfaction measures) to better identify, understand and strategically target consumer segments with potential for profitability and growth.     

Wealth Effects of Seasoned Equity Offerings: A Meta‐Analysis

We use meta‐analysis to review studies on announcement effects associated with seasoned equity offerings. Our sample includes 199 studies from 38 leading finance journals and Social Sciences Research Network working papers. The studies cover different countries, but the US is particularly well‐represented with 131 studies. We find a statistically significant mean cumulative abnormal return of −0.98%. Abnormal returns are more negative for equity issues by US companies and for non‐US rights issues and are less negative for private placements. In addition, wealth effects are more negative when the proceeds are used for debt reduction, when the SEO is issued shortly after IPO, and for issues by nondividend‐paying companies and industrial companies. We identify important avenues for future research.     

Utopian community football? Sport,hope and belongingness in the lives of refugees and asylum seekers

Refugees and asylum seekers have become increasingly demonised as part of anti-migrant sentiment leading to social exclusion. Sport has been utilised as a tool for social cohesion though evidence as to its efficacy in such a task is limited. Based on a three-year research programme exploring the role of football in the lives of refugees and asylum seekers in the U.K., this paper examines the concept of belonging, provides evidence for the role of community-based sport in social development and concludes with a call for practitioners to maximise their belief in concrete utopian ideals without losing the inherent critical approach needed to positively develop the industry in which they work.     

An Investigation of Gen-Y's Online Hotel Information Search: The Case of Hong Kong

The Internet has made searching for hotel room information and making online reservations common practices among hotel guests. Despite constantly changing consumer behavior and widespread application of online hotel information sources, limited studies have been conducted to examine the online sources used frequently by customers and the related attributes of such sources. As such, drawing from an online questionnaire survey with 205 respondents, findings in this study indicate that there are no socio-demographic effects on future purchase intention of Generation (Gen) Y travelers. Moreover, websites of suppliers (e.g. official websites of hotels), travel intermediaries (e.g. Hotels.com), and social media (e.g. TripAdvisor) are the three major types of websites used by Gen Y hotel guests. Travel intermediary websites are often used to search for hotel information, whereas social media websites are used to make reservations. Based on these findings, implications for hotel managers are discussed.     

The Impact of a Rising Dollar on the U.S. Economy

Since June 2014, the dollar has strengthened dramatically. The effects of such a rise—and its likely continuation—on the U.S. economy are many, complex, and often obscure and could affect a number of business decisions. In this paper, the authors investigate the impact of a 10 percent rise in the value of the dollar against all other currencies through the use of a macroeconometric model. They examine direct effects and the full range of indirect effects and find that through a number of negative feedback the indirect effects will significantly offset the direct effects on GDP, interest rates, and many other macroeconomic variables—including the value of the dollar itself.     

Recent Developments at the CMA: 2016–2017

We discuss three interesting cases that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has dealt with over the past year. First, we cover the ICE/Trayport vertical merger, which was prohibited by the CMA. Second, we discuss the CMA’s recent market investigation into the UK energy sector. The CMA arrived at the unexpected finding that markets with homogeneous products, multiple players and low entry barriers can still lead to significant competition concerns. Finally, we discuss the CMA’s work in relation to retail most favoured nation clauses, and include econometric results showing the impact of these clauses on platforms’ commission fees .