A Typology of International New Ventures: Empirical Evidence from High‐Technology Industries

We examine determinants of different types of International New Ventures (INVs), namely Export Start‐up, Geographically Focused Start‐up, Multinational Trader, and Global Start‐up. Whereas this typology of INVs has been widely accepted in the literature, empirical testing of the determinants of INV types is largely missing. Our arguments build on the International New Venture Theory (INVT). Hypotheses generated from our framework are tested on 195 German high‐tech enterprises. Results show that growth orientation, prior international experience, knowledge intensity, product differentiation, and learning orientation distinguish significantly between the different INV types.     

The case of the ECB: Better to lean against the wind than to fight a hurricane

In the light of the recent financial crisis, the ECB has announced a slight shift in the reading of its monetary policy strategy and acknowledges that the case for a “leaning against the wind” strategy has strengthened. This implies that now, more than ever, the ECB is willing to dampen asset bubbles in the early stage of their formation. This article explains what the ECB can learn from historical asset bubbles in EU eurozone member countries. The empirical analysis indicates that asset bubbles in some member countries are mostly followed by asset bubbles in further member countries, which supports the ECB’s current reading of its monetary policy strategy.     

Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding

We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is, forecasters seem to intentionally scatter their forecasts around a consensus forecast. We further show that cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts with regard to anti-herding transmits onto cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecast accuracy. Specifically, we document that forecasters who herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who anti-herd.     

The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).     

Empirical Evaluation of Fair Use Flat Rate Strategies for Mobile Internet

The fair use flat rate is a promising tariff concept for the mobile telecommunication industry. Similar to classical flat rates it allows unlimited usage at a fixed monthly fee. Contrary to classical flat rates it limits the access speed once a certain usage threshold is exceeded. Due to the current global roll-out of the LTE (Long Term Evolution) technology and the related economic changes for telecommunication providers, the application of fair use flat rates needs a reassessment. We therefore propose a simulation model to evaluate different pricing strategies and their contribution margin impact. The key input element of the model is provided by so-called discrete choice experiments that allow the estimation of customer preferences.     

A note on introducing a "zero‐line" of welfare as an escape route from Arrow's theorem

Since Sen's insightful analysis of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, Arrow's theorem is often interpreted as a consequence of the exclusion of interpersonal information from Arrow's framework. Interpersonal comparability of either welfare levels or welfare units is known to be sufficient for circumventing Arrow's impossibility result. But it is less well known whether one of these types of comparability is also necessary or whether Arrow's conditions can already be satisfied in much narrower informational frameworks. This note explores such a framework: the assumption of (ONC + 0), ordinal measurability of welfare with the additional measurability of a "zero‐line", is shown to point towards new, albeit limited, escape routes from Arrow's theorem. Some existence and classification results are established, using the condition that social orderings be transitive as well as the condition that social orderings be quasi‐transitive.     

Ruin Problems for Phase-Type(2) Risk Processes

In this paper we consider a risk process in which claim inter-arrival times have a phase-type(2) distribution, a distribution with a density satisfying a second order linear differential equation. We consider some ruin related problems. In particular, we consider the compound geometric representation of the infinite time survival probability, as well as the (defective) distributions of the surplus immediately prior to ruin and of the deficit at ruin. We also consider explicit solutions for the infinite time ruin probability in the case where the individual claim amount distribution is phase-type.     

A Note on Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates: Evidence of Anti‐herding

Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or anti‐herding behavior of exchange‐rate forecasters can be detected in the cross‐section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange‐rate forecasts are consistent with herding (anti‐herding) if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. Our empirical findings provide strong evidence of anti‐herding of emerging market exchange‐rate forecasters.