What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU-15 over the period 1970–2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 61(1):653–670, 1999; Econom Theory 20(3):597–625, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence, European Central Bank, Working Paper 591, 2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (Econ Lett 97(3):185–190, 2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU-15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970–1991 and 1992–2006).     

Modelling Cross-Border Integration: The Role of Borders as a Resource

Cross-border integration is a multifaceted as well as contextually contingent process. While various conceptualisations have been developed, the theoretical foundations of the concept appear insufficient in order to grasp the very significance of such a process of cross-border regionalism. In order to help make sense of the diversity of configurations observed, this article seeks to deconstruct the concept according to the role played by the border as a resource and to develop a theoretical framework based on two contrasted models of cross-border integration. The underlying hypothesis is that cross-border integration does not derive from the mere opening of national borders that it supposedly helps at the same time to remove, but stems from the strategic behaviour of actors who actively mobilise borders as resources. The first model, called ‘geo-economic’, is mainly based on the mobilisation of the border as a differential benefit and aims to generate value out of asymmetric cross-border interactions. In doing so, this process of functional integration is likely to increase cross-border socio-economic disparities and leads to cooperation oriented towards instrumental purposes such as increasing the economic utility of the border or regulating negative externalities. The second model, called ‘territorial project’, emphasises the border resources that involve a convergence of both sides of a border, either through a process of hybridisation/innovation or via the territorial and symbolic recognition borders entail. In this process of place-making that transcends the border, mutual understanding and trust between the actors is seen to be key and the willingness to cooperate essential. Conceived as ideal-types, the two models of cross-border integration are contrasted and to some extent contradictory. They are however not mutually exclusive and different kinds of combinations are examined based on concrete examples.     

Short Sales Constraints, Liquidity and Price Discovery: An Empirical Analysis on the Paris Bourse

In the Paris Bourse some stocks are traded on a spot basis, while others are traded on a monthly settlement basis. The latter are likely to be less subject to leverage and short sales constraints. We empirically analyse the consequences of this difference for the order flow and the return process. Consistent with the theoretical analysis of Diamond and Verrechia (1987), we find that market sell orders are less frequent on the spot market than on the monthly settlement market (although not very significantly) and that the spot market reflects good news (significantly) faster than bad news.     

Sharing Money Creation in a Monetary Union*

How to share money creation among the members of the European Monetary Union? To address this issue, we construct a two‐country New Open‐economy Macroeconomics model of an asymmetric monetary union with an incomplete financial market and home bias in consumption. We consider two sharing rules consistent with the current regulations of the European System of Central Banks. First, each participating National Central Bank supplies half of the European Central Bank determined money creation in the monetary union. Secondly, each National Central Bank adapts the national increase in money demand, under the constraint that the total money creation in the union does not exceed the level determined by the ECB for the whole union. We show that the current sharing rule, which ignores countries’ heterogeneity, is superior in terms of welfare. The key role of the current account is emphasized. It proves an efficient decentralized mechanism for allocation of money.     

Weighted norm inequalities and hedging in incomplete markets

Let be an -valued special semimartingale on a probability space with canonical decomposition . Denote by the space of all random variables , where is a predictable -integrable process such that the stochastic integral is in the space of semimartingales. We investigate under which conditions on the semimartingale the space is closed in , a question which arises naturally in the applications to financial mathematics. Our main results give necessary and/or sufficient conditions for the closedness of in . Most of these conditions deal with BMO-martingales and reverse H?lder inequalities which are equivalent to weighted norm inequalities. By means of these last inequalities, we also extend previous results on the F?llmer-Schweizer decomposition.     

Self-Insurance, Self-Protection and Market Insurance within the Dual Theory of Choice

As demonstrated by Ehrlich and Becker [1972], Expected Utility Theory predicts that market insurance and self-insurance are substitutes, whilst surprisingly, market insurance and self-protection could be complements. This article examines the robustness of this conclusion, as well as its extensions under the Dual Theory of Choice [Yaari, 1987]. In particular, the non-reliability of self-insurance activities, background risk and asymmetric information are considered.     

Testing for convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient in Europe

Without convergence of macroeconomic parameters representative of the nature of adjustment mechanisms, even a common shock to members of a monetary union can lead to different macroeconomic consequences across the union and, eventually, to the need for more or less co-ordinated specific policies. In this paper, we test for the presence of convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient (OLC) among several alternative groupings of European economies. The empirical strategy adopted is based on the evaluation of the time path of rolling regression estimates of the OLC for European countries. We then use a testing procedure suggested by Evans [Evans P (1996) J Econ Dynam Control 20:1027–1049] to investigate the convergence, or non-convergence, of the OLC in several groups of European countries by examining how the cross-country variance of the OLC evolves over time in these groups. A hypothesis of medium-term convergence of the OLC is rejected for most of the European country groups examined.      

Are there pecuniary compensations for working conditions?

In this paper we assess the relative contribution of working conditions to wage determination with an emphasis on differences along the earnings distribution. A survey of British employees in 2001 rich in questions regarding the job post enables us to separate the contribution of working conditions, job attributes and individual characteristics to the process of wage determination. Standard wage equations reveal that covariates such as having “repetitive job” and using generic skills such as “literacy” or “customer handling skills” are associated with significant premiums and penalties. Quantile regressions confirm the presence of penalties to poor working conditions, such as “working to tight deadlines”, that are significant in the middle section of the earnings distribution and robust to the inclusion of a wide range of controls for person, firm and other job characteristics. Counterfactual decompositions at quantiles show that, despite the apparent penalty, there are pecuniary compensations to poor working conditions around the first quartile and the median of the earnings distribution.     

Multigeneration innovation diffusion and intergeneration time: A cautionary note

A recent JAMS article reported the following finding: the longer the time between the launch of two adjacent generations in the same product category, the lower the initial rate of adoption of the later generation but the higher its subsequent rate of growth. This note shows that these results could be a method artifact, since they vanish once one controls for differences in the length of the data series used to compute the initial and subsequent rates of growth. So, for the time being, it is premature to accept these intergeneration effects as genuine. Christophe Van de Bulte (Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University) (vdbulte@wharton.upenn.edu) is an assistant professor of marketing at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He holds an undergraduate degree in applied economics from the University of Antwerp, Belgium, and is a Fellow of the Belgian American Educational Foundation.His research focuses on new product diffusion and on the role of social networks in marketing settings, and has been published in theAmerican Journal of Sociology, theJournal of Marketing, Management Science, Marketing Science, and other journals. He serves on the editorial boards of theJournal of Business-to-Business Marketing andMarketing Science.