Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields

We assess the short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries using a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration. Given the existence of cross-country dependence regarding sovereign yields and its determinants, we resort to simulation and bootstrap methods. Results based on the Common Correlated Effect estimator of Pesaran and on Panel Error Correction Models to sort out short- and long-run fiscal developments show that in addition to common movements in sovereign yields, investors also consider country differences arising from specific factors (inflation, budgetary and current account imbalances, real effective exchange rates, and liquidity).     

Can inflation data improve the real‐time reliability of output gap estimates?

Potential output plays a central role in monetary policy and short‐term macroeconomic policy making. Yet, characterizing the output gap involves a trend‐cycle decomposition, and unobserved component estimates are typically subject to a large uncertainty at the sample end. An important consequence is that output gap estimates can be quite inaccurate in real time, as recently highlighted by Orphanides and van Norden ( 2002 ), and this causes a serious problem for policy makers. For the cases of the US, EU‐11 and two EU countries, we evaluate the benefits of using inflation data for improving the accuracy of real‐time estimates. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The status quo bias and reform of the Common Agricultural Policy: impact of voting rules, the European Commission and external changes

We develop a formal model of EU decision-making on the CommonAgricultural Policy (CAP). The model is used to evaluate underwhat conditions CAP reform occurs and what the influence ofthe European Commission (Commission) is on CAP reform. We findthat the voting and amendment rules in the Council of the EuropeanUnion, the number of policy instruments and external changeshave important impacts on the occurrence and extent of CAP reformand on the influence of the Commission. Stricter voting rulesincrease the status quo bias and reduce Commission influence,whereas stricter amendment rules increase both the status quobias and Commission influence. More significant external changeresults in more reform and more Commission influence.     

Economic burden of chemotherapy-treated recurrent and/or metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck in France: real-world data from the permanent sample of national health insurance beneficiaries

Aims: Overall survival (OS) of patients with recurrent or metastatic (R/M) squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN) is extremely poor. New therapeutic options emerge but need to establish their economic value. The objective was to describe the direct and related costs of R/M SCCHN in France.

Materials and methods: We selected all adult patients treated with chemotherapy for R/M SCCHN between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2014 from the permanent sample of the French national health insurance database (EGB). Data were analyzed from the index date (first chemotherapy) until patients’ death or 31 December 2015. “Treatment period” and “end-of-life” (EoL) (from last chemotherapy until death) were distinguished. Costs included all hospitalizations for SCCHN and ambulatory care. Costs of hospitalized and non-hospitalized adverse events (AEs) were estimated.

Results: Among 267 patients identified, 85% were men, 44% had metastases at the index date and the mean age was 62.0 years (±9.9). The most common tumor location was oropharynx (29%) but 39% of patients had multiple locations. Median OS was 9.3 (95% CI: 7.9–11.8) months for the overall population. The average total direct cost per patient was €49,954, broken down into €32,908 (95% CI: 29,525–36,290) for hospitalizations and €17,047 (14,941–19,152) for ambulatory care. Main cost drivers were drug acquisition and administration (€14,538) during the treatment period (209?days on average) and palliative care (€3,750) during the EoL period (125?days). Regarding related costs, around 12% of patients received disability pensions (€1,397 per patient [624–2,171]) and sick leave payments (€1,592 [888–2,297]). “Metabolism and nutrition disorders” and “Infections and infestations” were the most expensive hospitalized AEs (€1,513 and €1,180 per patient, respectively). Febrile neutropenia was the most expensive non-hospitalized AE (€766 per patient).

Conclusions: This analysis of real-world data confirms the poor prognosis of patients with R/M SCCHN and provides cost data for future economic evaluations.     

Bank Competition and Collateral: Theory and Evidence

We investigate the impact of bank competition on the use of collateral in loan contracts. We analyze asymmetric information about the borrowers’ type in a Salop model in which banks choose between screening the borrower and asking for collateral. We show that the presence of collateral is more likely when bank competition is low. We then test this prediction empirically on a sample of bank loans from 70 countries. We perform logit regressions of the presence of collateral on bank competition, measured by the Lerner index. Our empirical tests corroborate the theoretical predictions that bank competition reduces the presence of collateral. These findings survive several robustness checks.     

Sources of crime in the state of Veracruz: The role of female labor force participation and wage inequality

Abstract

In recent years, crime has become a serious concern in Mexico as its increase has detrimentally affected government institutions and economic growth. There is considerable speculation among policy analysts about the causes of the increase in crime. Whereas some analysts attribute the increase to a rise in income inequality, others believe internal migration and a loss of morals are the roots of criminal behavior. This research shows that at least for the Mexican state of Veracruz, wage inequality and labor force participation have an important impact on crime. When gender is considered, however, the impact is more complicated than it seems. An increase in women's labor force participation decreases the overall number of alleged violent offenders. However, the number of alleged rapists and grievous bodily harm offenders increases as women's wage distribution improves. The results shed light on the gender dimensions of the economics of crime.     

Trade liberalization in the bio‐economy: coping with a new landscape

Multilateral trade liberalization has made little progress over the last period, but preferential agreements have multiplied. Recent economic literature helps understand the current negotiation game. New economic and political conditions, in particular the gaining influence of emerging countries, make a multilateral agreement more difficult. Developed countries have given up many of their bargaining chips in previous rounds of negotiation and their remaining agricultural tariffs are not sufficient for extracting the concessions from emerging countries on services, procurement, and intellectual property that would make an agreement possible. The risk of a more fragmented world calls for a revised negotiation agenda and a change in the status of developing countries. Research issues are outlined in order to help revitalize the Doha negotiation agenda.     

The competitive advantage of cluster firms: the priority of regional network position over extra-regional networks – a study of a French high-tech cluster

This paper extends research on industry clusters by unbundling network from cluster effects and by analysing how network effects drive the performance of cluster firms. The results show that a firm's connectedness in a regional network is positively associated with firm performance. However, we found that for cluster firms, it is even more important to build strong network positions by developing rather exclusive alliance networks. In addition, a weak position within a cluster cannot be compensated for by strong extra-regional networking activities. From this perspective, cluster-specific advantages are firm-specific and the basis for competitive advantage. Regional competitiveness is therefore a non-substitutable pre-condition for the overall performance of cluster firms.