Measuring macroeconomic exposure: The case of Volvo Cars*

Volvo Cars' economic exposure to exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables is estimated using quarterly cash flows as the firm's target variable. We discuss first several issues relating to management's view of the macroeconomic environment, as well as the firm's objective and structure. These issues must be addressed before multiple regression analysis can be implemented with the purpose of estimating exposures. the use of cash flow exposure coefficients for evaluating exposure and choosing currency denomination of liabilities is illustrated, and an out-of-sample analysis of the estimated exposure coefficients is carried out.     

The Equal Bid Principle: An Analysis of the Thirteenth Council Takeover Directive of the European Union

This paper analyzes the economic consequences of a proposal from the EU Commission: The Amended Proposal for a Thirteenth Council Directive on Company Law, Concerning Takeover and Other General Bids (1990). By implementing the Equal Bid Principle, the Directive enforces a potential bidder to extend the same tender offer price to all shareholders. The paper demonstrates that it is likely that the effect of the Equal Bid Principle is directly opposed to the declared goal of protecting the economic interests of shareholders in the target company. Moreover, it tends towards a direction opposite to the declared goal of stimulating corporate acquisitions.     

The New Basel Capital Accord: Making it Effective with Stronger Market Discipline

In January 2001 the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision proposed a new capital adequacy framework to respond to deficiencies in the 1988 Capital Accord on credit risk. The main elements or 'pillars' of the proposal are capital requirements based on the internal risk-ratings of individual banks, expanded and active supervision, and information disclosure requirements to enhance market discipline. We discuss the incentive effects of the proposed regulation. In particular, we argue that it provides incentives for banks to develop new ways to evade the intended consequences of the proposed regulation. Supervision alone cannot prevent banks from 'gaming and manipulation' of risk-weights based on internal ratings. Furthermore, the proposed third pillar to enhance market discipline of banks' risk-taking is too weak to achieve its objective. Market discipline can be strengthened by a requirement that banks issue subordinated debt. We propose a first phase for introducing a requirement for large banks to issue subordinated debt as part of the capital requirement.     

Deposit insurance coverage,ownership, and banks' risk-taking in emerging markets

We ask how deposit insurance systems and ownership of banks affect the degree of market discipline on banks' risk-taking. Market discipline is determined by the extent of explicit deposit insurance, as well as by the credibility of non-insurance of groups of depositors and other creditors. Furthermore, market discipline depends on the ownership structure of banks and the responsiveness of bank managers to market incentives. An expected U-shaped relationship between explicit deposit insurance coverage and banks' risk-taking is influenced by country specific institutional factors, including bank ownership. We analyze specifically how government ownership, foreign ownership and shareholder rights affect the disciplinary effect of partial deposit insurance systems in a cross-section analysis of industrial and emerging market economies, as well as in emerging markets alone. The coverage that maximizes market discipline depends on country-specific characteristics of bank governance. This “risk-minimizing” deposit insurance coverage is compared to the actual coverage in a group of countries in emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Asia.     

OPEC in world financial markets: Oil prices and interest rates

This article examines the relationship between the real rate of interest in world financial markets and the price of oil. If OPEC cannot be viewed as a ‘small’ participant in world financial markets, and should its savings and portfolio behavior differ from that of the rest of the world, then wealth shifts to or from OPEC would affect world interest rates. Subsequently, this paper examines the magnitude of oil price changes required to elicit a significant interest rate change. Our empirical results shed light on OPEC's behavior, which at times may differ from a pure profit maximizing cartel. The short-run price elasticity of the world demand for oil is -0.04 and the long-run elasticity is -0.10. OPEC itself, as expected, faces higher elasticities of -0.08 and -0.36, respectively. The demand elasticity of oil with respect to ‘world’ GNP is 0.8. A major objective of this paper has been to determine the effect of changes in oil prices on world interest rates, and vice versa. Our results imply that only very large oil price increases will have a significant impact on world interest rates. However, oil prices show a non-negligible sensitivity to changes in world interest rates.     

Economic Growth, Inequality, Democratization, and the Environment

We augment the Stokey (1998) model by allowingagents to differ with respect to environmentalquality and income in order to analyze theimpact of income and environmental inequality,and of democratization on aggregate pollution.We find that the impact of a more equal incomedistribution depends on the degree ofdemocracy. In a complete democracy a more equalincome distribution generates, ceterisparibus, less pollution, which is consistentwith indirect empirical evidence, whereas theopposite is the case if democratic rights arehighly restricted. Furthermore, ademocratization is argued to typically lowerboth the income and the environmental qualityof the median voter. In this case, if, inutility terms, the fall in environmentalquality is worse than the fall in consumptionthe median voter decides to tightenenvironmental legislation so that aggregatepollution decreases.     

Heuristic algorithms for a second-best congestion pricing problem

Designing a congestion pricing scheme involves a number of complex decisions. Focusing on the quantitative parts of a congestion pricing system with link tolls, the problem involves finding the number of toll links, the link toll locations and their corresponding toll level and schedule. In this paper, we develop and evaluate methods for finding the most efficient design for a congestion pricing scheme in a road network model with elastic demand. The design efficiency is measured by the net social surplus, which is computed as the difference between the social surplus and the collection costs (i.e. setup and operational costs) of the congestion pricing system. The problem of finding such a scheme is stated as a combinatorial bi-level optimization problem. At the upper level, we maximize the net social surplus and at the lower level we solve a user equilibrium problem with elastic demand, given the toll locations and toll levels, to simulate the user response. We modify a known heuristic procedure for finding the optimal locations and toll levels given a fixed number of tolls to locate, to find the optimal number of toll facilities as well. A new heuristic procedure, based on repeated solutions of a continuous approximation of the combinatorial problem is also presented. Numerical results for two small test networks are presented. Both methods perform satisfactorily on the two networks. Comparing the two methods, we find that the continuous approximation procedure is the one which shows the best results.     

LINGUISTIC STRUCTURES AND ECONOMIC OUTCOMES

Linguistic structures have recently started to attract attention from economists as determinants of economic phenomena. This paper provides the first comprehensive review of this nascent literature and its achievements so far. First, we explore the complex connections between language, culture, thought and behaviour. Then, we summarize the empirical evidence on the relationship between linguistic structures and economic and social outcomes. We follow up with a discussion of data, empirical design and identification. The paper concludes by discussing implications for future research and policy.