The process of applied technology forecasting : A study of executive analysis, anticipation, and planning

The objective of this research is a study of technology forecasting not only as a discipline but also as an executive responsibility by applying the information processing theory to this task. A protocol analysis from Ericsson and Simon, modified for this study, was used for the analysis of interview data of top executives from the magnetic resonance imaging industry and their superconducting magnet suppliers, when they had to face a specific technological event. The technological event is the breakthrough discovery of ceramic superconducting materials in 1986, and the fast technological progress that followed between 1987 and 1989. This paper illustrates the processes through which senior executives collect information, process it, and develop plans and predictions in the context of “hard” uncertainty. We use cognitive and strategic decision-making research to develop a normative typology of executive decision making in similar contexts.     

Distinguishing Errors in Measurement from Errors in Optimization

Typical econometric production practices under duality ignore the source of disturbances. We show that, depending on the source, a different approach to estimation is required. The typical approach applies under errors in factor input measurement rather than errors in optimization. An approach to the identification of disturbance sources is suggested. We find credible evidence in U.S. agriculture of errors in optimization compared to errors of measurement, and thus reject the typical specification.