Random Profits and Duality

Dual production specifications derived under certainty are typically randomized for econometric purposes with ad hoc error specifications. This article shows that such approaches can cause integrability conditions to fail. In particular, if errors in input demands represent errors in optimization that affect output, then typical dual approaches do not yield congruent supplies and demands.     

Determinants of International Insurers' Participation in Foreign Non-Life Markets

Mirroring the trend in the broader marketplace, the global insurance industry is steadily moving toward increased liberalization and deregulation. This study seeks to develop the first empirical model that examines the importance of foreign market characteristics as they relate to the participation of international insurers in the non‐life business of those countries. The analysis reveals that market structure is an important factor in determining whether international insurers participate in a given foreign market. In addition, for markets that are not competitive, removing trade barriers would significantly improve the desirability of those countries as host markets. The results also suggest that countries with higher gross domestic product tend to attract more involvement from international insurers. While this research focuses on the markets of industrialized countries, the findings will provide significant implications for those emerging markets that have not yet collected relevant data on a number of the variables included in this study.     

Trading volatility spreads: a test of index option market efficiency

If returns on two assets share common volatility components, the prices of options on the assets should be interdependent and the implied volatility spread should mean revert. We first demonstrate, using the canonical correlation method, that there is a common component in the volatilities of the returns on S&P 100 and S&P 500 indices. We then exploit this commonality by trading on the volatility spread between tick-by-tick OEX and SPX call options listed on the CBOE. Our vega-delta-neutral strategies generated significant profits, even after transaction costs are taken into account. The results suggest that the two options markets are not jointly efficient.     

Which approach to accounting for employee stock options best reflects market pricing?

We use a residual income valuation framework to compare equity valuation implications of four approaches to employee stock options (ESOs) accounting: APB 25 “recognize nothing”, SFAS 123 (revised) “recognize ESO expense”, FASB Exposure Draft “recognize and expense ESO asset” and “recognize ESO asset and liability”. Theoretical analysis shows only grant date recognition of an asset and liability, and subsequent marking-to-market of the liability, results in accounting numbers that capture the dilution effects of ESOs on current shareholder value. Out-of-sample equity market value prediction tests and in-sample comparisons of model explanatory power also support the “recognize ESO asset and liability” method.     

Why Small Firms Export: Another Look

This article examines what factors motivate small firms to export. Specifically, this study looks at firms with 200 or fewer employees, dividing the sample into two groups: firms with 25 or fewer employees and firms with more than 25 employees. The results suggest that firms with 25 or fewer employees export for two main reasons: the firm has a unique product, and it has a technological advantage over competitors. Firms with more than 25 employees export for the above two reasons, plus two additional reasons: to achieve economies of scale and to avoid losing out on foreign opportunities. Due to the limitations of the size and scope of this research, future research should include additional SIC categories as well as firms outside California.     

International Differences in GAAP and the Pricing of Earnings

This study investigates the information content of two alternative accounting earnings measures constructed under U.K. and U.S. GAAP. The analysis is based on the 20-F SEC filings by U.K. domiciled companies having ADRs listed in the U.S. The research design involves testing the association between U.K. stock returns and alternative accounting numbers. The evidence suggests that, for the sample examined, U.K. GAAP earnings changes have incremental information content after controlling for U.S. GAAP earnings changes, but that earnings levels measured under U.S. GAAP have some independent incremental information content after controlling for U.K. GAAP earnings. The results are consistent with GAAP adjustments having a significant transitory component. The empirical results display explanatory power which is broadly consistent with previous work and the GAAP earnings adjustments add marginally to the ability of earnings to explain returns.     

The effect of large audit firm mergers on audit pricing in the UK

This paper examines the effects on UK audit market concentration and pricing of mergers between the large audit firms and the demise of Andersen. Based on data over the period 1985–2002, it appears that mergers contributed to a rise in concentration ratios to levels that suggest concern about the potential for monopoly pricing. The high concentration ratios have not improved the level of price competition in the UK audit market. Our pooled models suggest that concentration ratios are associated with higher audit fees. The evidence suggests that the effects of mergers between big firms on brand name fee premium and on price competition vary depending on the particular circumstances. The brand name premium is strongest for the largest quartile of companies prior to the mergers. After the Big Six mergers, the premium increases for average‐sized companies but falls for the smallest and largest companies. Following the PricewaterhouseCoopers merger, the premium increases for below median‐sized clients but decreases for above‐median sized clients. For the Deloitte‐Andersen transaction, the premium falls for the smallest and largest companies but increases for those in the second quartile. Our results provide evidence that auditees are likely to pay higher fees if their auditor merges with a larger counterpart. We attribute merger‐related fee hikes to product differentiation, rather than anti‐competitive pricing.     

Non-linear Dependence in Stock Returns: Does Trading Frequency Matter?

The UK has a quote-driven pure dealer market structure that is very different from order driven markets such as the NYSE and Japanese markets. This paper investigates non-linear dependence in stock returns for an exhaustive sample of UK stocks for a 21 year period. The results are analysed on the basis of trading frequency. It is found that non-linear dependence is highly significant in all cases for both individual stocks and stock portfolios formed on the basis of trading frequency. The non-linear dependence is primarily over a one day interval, although statistically significant non-linear dependence exists consistently even up to five trading days. Most of the non-linear dependence is in the form of ARCH-type conditional heteroskedasticity. However, statistically significant non-linearity in addition to an EGARCH(1,1) dependence also appears to be present. This additional non-linearity is greater for individual stocks than for portfolios and greater for smaller, less-liquid portfolios. Non-linear dependence does not appear to be caused by non-stationarity in underlying economic fundamentals or by non-linearity in the conditional mean. However, low dimensional chaos is not generally supported. The limited evidence on chaotic behaviour is stronger for portfolios with long price adjustment delays across component stocks. The main results are consistent with US studies on stock indices, suggesting that the process generating non-linear dependence is not dependent on market microstructure characteristics.     

Board Monitoring and Earnings Management: Do Outside Directors Influence Abnormal Accruals?

Abstract:   This paper examines whether the incidence of earnings management by UK firms depends on board monitoring. We focus on two aspects of board monitoring: the role of outside board members and the audit committee. Results indicate that the likelihood of managers making income‐increasing abnormal accruals to avoid reporting losses and earnings reductions is negatively related to the proportion of outsiders on the board. We also find that the chance of abnormal accruals being large enough to turn a loss into a profit or to ensure that profit does not decline is significantly lower for firms with a high proportion of outside board members. In contrast, we find little evidence that outside directors influence income‐decreasing abnormal accruals when pre‐managed earnings are high. We find no evidence that the presence of an audit committee directly affects the extent of income‐increasing manipulations to meet or exceed these thresholds. Neither do audit committees appear to have a direct effect on the degree of downward manipulation, when pre‐managed earnings exceed thresholds by a large margin. Our findings suggest that boards contribute towards the integrity of financial statements, as predicted by agency theory.