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947.
In this article, we propose a model selection approach for testing structural breaks in a semiparametric panel varying coefficient
model. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the proposed model selection approach performs well in finite sample settings. Applying
the method to an empirical data, we find evidence of structural breaks in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) health expenditure data by allowing for income elasticity to be state (income)-dependent. The relationship between
health expenditure and income is subject to two types of structural changes: smooth changes over income and structural breaks
in the time dimension. The findings hold for both foreign exchange rate-converted and Purchasing Power Parity-converted expenditure
and GDP. 相似文献
948.
The time-varying natural rate of interest and output and the implied medium-term inflation target for the US economy are estimated
over the period 1983–2005. The estimation is conducted within the New Keynesian framework using Bayesian and Kalman-filter
estimation techniques. With the model-consistent estimate of the output gap, we get a small weight on the backward-looking
component of the New Keynesian Phillips curve—similar to what is obtained in studies which use labor share of income as a
driver for inflation (e.g., Galí, Eur Econ Rev 45(7):1237–1270, 2001; Eur Econ Rev 47(4):759–760, 2003). The turning points
of the business cycle are nevertheless broadly consistent with those of CBO/NBER. We find considerable variation in the natural
rate of interest while the inflation target has been close to 2% over the last decade. 相似文献
949.
Andreas Steiner 《Empirical Economics》2011,40(1):165-176
This article investigates empirically the determinants of central banks’ reserve holdings for a large panel data set of developing
and transition countries covering the period from 1975 to 2003. It estimates both a static and a dynamic relationship and
applies estimators for homogeneous and heterogeneous panel data. Thereby, it examines the extent to which conclusions of panel
data studies on the determinants of international reserve holdings are robust to the inclusion of dynamics as well as to the
consideration of heterogeneity across countries. The results show that the neglect of dynamics and heterogeneity in country
behaviour may lead to misleading inferences. Independently of the chosen estimation method, the findings suggest that trade
openness and external debt are robust determinants of the level of reserves. Central banks take precautionary measures against
the downside of the increasing international economic integration. 相似文献
950.
This study investigates the increase in the labour force participation rate of women. We estimate a binary age–period–cohort
model for a sample of Dutch women born between 1925 and 1986. The results indicate that the increasing level of education
and the diminishing negative effect of children have played an important role. Moreover, we find important unobserved cohort
effects for pre-1955 generations, which is in line with results of studies on social norms. It is shown that the growth in
female participation is likely to slow down in the near future, as such cohort effects are not relevant for younger generations. 相似文献