Testing the restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis

The nature and form of the restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis are examined in a variety of models with expectations and the properties of appropriate test statistics are analyzed with Monte Carlo evidence. Specifically, we consider the implications of lagged variables, simultaneous equations, and future period expectations upon the number and functional form of the rational expectations restrictions. Two asymptotically equivalent test statistics — a likelihood ratio and a Wald test — are available for implementing a test of these restrictions. Monte Carlo evidence is offered to provide a comparison between the properties of the alternative test statistics in small samples.     

Coping with poverty in international assistance policy: An evaluation of spatially integrated investment strategies

International assistance agencies have turned increasingly to integrated rural development policies in an attempt to ameliorate the inequitable distribution of economic growth plaguing Third World nations since World War II. This paper reviews the functionally and spatially integrated investment strategies of the World Bank, USAID and the United Nations, outlines their objectives, perceptions of the problem, basic assumptions and programmes, and evaluates them in terms of potential difficulties for implementation. Those factors crucial to making integrated development policies operational — knowledge of human ecosystems in rural areas, analytical ability, operational procedures, arrangements for local participation, subsistence systems indicators and administrative capacity of local and national governments — are discussed and assessed.     

Wages,Health Insurance and Pension Plans: The Relationship Between Employee Compensation and Small Business Owner Income

Small business owners claim that their ability to provide higher wages and more frequent employee health insurance and pension benefits is severely constrained by the profitability of their firms. This paper examines the proposition that employee wage levels, provision of employee health insurance, and sponsorship of an employee pension plan are associated with small business owner income. A large trade-association survey supplies the data for the inquiry. Regression analysis (OLS and logistic) demonstrates that all three forms of employee compensation are tied to business owner income. Further, the business owner income variable "washes out" the generally accepted relationship between size of business and wages, though not the relationships between size of the business and the presence of health insurance nor between the size of business and the presence of pension benefits. The regressions also indicate that unit costs of health insurance and pension benefits are higher for those employing 10 or fewer and 20 or fewer respectively compared the other small businesses.     

Raising rivals' costs: The entry of an upstream monopolist into downstream markets

A regulated upstream monopolist provides an input to firms in a downstream market. If the monopolist enters the downstream market, a natural concern is that it will act so as to raise its downstream rivals' costs. An offsetting incentive is that a higher downstream price will reduce demand for the input, which reduces the monopolist's profit. Conditions under which one incentive dominates the other are derived. The monopolist may desire to lower its downstream rivals' costs rather than raise them. These findings suggest that regulatory policy towards such downstream entry should not focus exclusively on the ability to discriminate.     

Informed Trading Around Earnings Announcements: Another Look

This study is an empirical test of the Easley, O'Hara, and Srinivas (1998) multimarket sequential trade model of stock and option markets. We employ two approaches to determine the information content of signed stock and option trades executed around quarterly earnings announcements. The first approach expands the vector autoregression (VAR) technique of Hasbrouck (1991a) to include signed option trade volumes and inter‐trade durations. Estimates from the VAR models provide insight into whether both equity and option trades are viewed as informative by the equity specialist. The second approach focuses on the information content of the earnings releases to determine whether signed equity and option trades executed prior to the announcements are informed. Results indicate that although informed traders prefer to transact in both markets around earnings announcements, option market transactions contain no incremental information.