EMERGING EQUITY MARKETS: GROWTH, BENEFITS, AND POLICY CONCERNS

Since the mid-1980s, stock market activity has increased substantiallyin many developing countries. This article first examines themain characteristics of emerging stock markets and illustratesthe evolution of equity prices in these markets during the lastdecade. It then discusses the reasons for the markets' growthand assesses the extent to which they have been affected bydomestic policies and external factors. The authors discussthe likely benefits of these markets, the effects any abruptcorrection in stock prices could have for the economy, and theways in which these markets can be made more efficient.      

Stochastic Volatility for Lévy Processes

Three processes reflecting persistence of volatility are initially formulated by evaluating three Lévy processes at a time change given by the integral of a mean-reverting square root process. The model for the mean-reverting time change is then generalized to include non-Gaussian models that are solutions to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equations driven by one-sided discontinuous Lévy processes permitting correlation with the stock. Positive stock price processes are obtained by exponentiating and mean correcting these processes, or alternatively by stochastically exponentiating these processes. The characteristic functions for the log price can be used to yield option prices via the fast Fourier transform. In general mean-corrected exponentiation performs better than employing the stochastic exponential. It is observed that the mean-corrected exponential model is not a martingale in the filtration in which it is originally defined. This leads us to formulate and investigate the important property of martingale marginals where we seek martingales in altered filtrations consistent with the one-dimensional marginal distributions of the level of the process at each future date.     

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EQUITY COSTS AND RISK PREMIUMS IN THE ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY: 1971–1985

This paper develops a varying parameter econometric model that estimates the cost of equity of individual utility firms from 1971 to 1985. The equity costs estimated in this framework can be analyzed in terms of their statistical precision. The paper also examines, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between the econometric estimates of the equity risk premiums and the risk-free interest rates. The data do not support the hypothesis that risk premiums are independent of interest rates. Also, the relationship appears to vary over time. These results invalidate the risk premium approach in which equity costs are estimated by adding a constant, historical average risk premium to the prevailing interest rates.     

The Effect of SEC-Ordered Suspensions on Returns, Volatility, and Trading Volume

This study evaluates the effect of SEC-ordered suspensions on securities' returns, volatility, and trading volume during 1963–1987. It is found that there is a permanent devaluation of these securities during the suspension. This result, however, is sensitive to the announced reason for the suspension. Both the variance and the trading volume are found to be substantially higher than normal in the presuspension period. This trend continues in the immediate postsuspension period. The variance and volume levels return to more normal levels only at a much later date. We conclude that trading suspensions are not associated with the immediate elimination of unusual market activity.     

Option Pricing With V. G. Martingale Components1

European call options are priced when the uncertainty driving the stock price follows the V. G. stochastic process (Madan and Seneta 1990). the incomplete markets equilibrium change of measure is approximated and identified using the log return mean, variance, and kurtosis. an exact equilibrium interpretation is also provided, allowing inference about relative risk aversion coefficients from option prices. Relative to Black-Scholes, V. G. option values are higher, particularly so for out of the money options with long maturity on stocks with high means, low variances, and high kurtosis.     

Traffic law enforcement in Hyderabad, India

The aim of the study was to understand traffic law enforcement (TLE) carried out by the police to reduce non-compliance with traffic laws on the roads of Hyderabad city in India for 2001-2003. The Traffic Police database of citations issued to drivers who violated traffic laws in Hyderabad was analysed for the years 2001-2003 to describe the TLE activities of the police, to describe and compare the TLE activities for the different types of vehicles and to compare the TLE activities for the 3 years. The violations were classified in five categories - those related to driving, parking, vehicle, document and others; and TLE into safety and other TLE. A total of 646 161 traffic-law violations were registered in 2001, 904 447 in 2002 and 964 275 in 2003 for Hyderabad. Driving and parking violations were the most common violations registered in all 3 years, with parking violations slightly higher in 2001 (43.5%) and driving violations slightly higher in 2002 (35%) and 2003 (36.4%). Auto-rickshaws (three-wheel commercial passenger vehicles) accounted for the highest violations registered in 2001 (41.4%) whereas motorized two-wheelers had the highest registered violations in 2002 (35.5%) and 2003 (33.2%). Safety TLE activity (detecting and registering driving violations) was only one-third of all the TLE activity performed by the police in the 3 years, and disobeying traffic signals was the most common violation registered under safety TLE. Indian rupees 50 (US$1.1) were collected by way of a fine in 87% of the cases registered. Age and gender of the violators were not recorded in the database. These data can be used for planning, monitoring and evaluating TLE in Hyderabad. These can help identify traffic control and human factors that could lead to traffic noncompliance, and help identify priorities for improving road safety. These data indicate a need to enhance the safety TLE activity of the police, to make TLE more visible in Hyderabad, and to assess the effectiveness of the current legal action as deterrence to improve road safety. Recommendations to enhance TLE within the given resources of the police are made. More effort is needed towards systematic collection and analysis of data on TLE in India to facilitate long-term improvements in TLE for safer roads.     

Strategies to fight low-cost rivals

Companies find it challenging and yet strangely reassuring to take on opponents whose strategies, strengths, and weaknesses resemble their own. Their obsession with familiar rivals, however, has blinded them to threats from disruptive, low-cost competitors. Successful price warriors, such as the German retailer Aldi, are changing the nature of competition by employing several tactics: focusing on just one or a few consumer segments, delivering the basic product or providing one benefit better than rivals do, and backing low prices with superefficient operations. Ignoring cutprice rivals is a mistake because they eventually force companies to vacate entire market segments. Price wars are not the answer, either: Slashing prices usually lowers profits for incumbents without driving the low-cost entrants out of business. Companies take various approaches to competing against cut-price players. Some differentiate their products--a strategy that works only in certain circumstances. Others launch low-cost businesses of their own, as many airlines did in the 1990s--a so-called dual strategy that succeeds only if companies can generate synergies between the existing businesses and the new ventures, as the financial service providers HSBC and ING did. Without synergies, corporations are better off trying to transform themselves into low-cost players, a difficult feat that Ryanair accomplished in the 1990s, or into solution providers. There will always be room for both low-cost and value-added players. How much room each will have depends not only on the industry and customers' preferences, but also on the strategies traditional businesses deploy.     

Do Short Sellers Target Firms with Poor Earnings Quality? Evidence from Earnings Restatements

We study the behavior of short sellers around earnings restatements. We find that short sellers accumulate positions in restating firms several months in advance of the restatement and subsequently unwind these positions after the drop in share price induced by the restatement. The increase in short interest is larger for firms with high levels of accruals prior to restatement. We document that heavily shorted firms experience poor subsequent performance and a higher rate of delisting. Overall, these results suggest that the motive for short selling is, at least in part, related to suspect financial reporting and that short sellers pay attention to information being conveyed by accruals.