How ICT affects economic growth in the Euro area during the economic crisis

NETNOMICS: Economic Research and Electronic Networking - The financial and economic crisis in Europe highlighted issues related to the competitiveness of member states, as well as the importance of...     

Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage,business and consumer loan portfolios

This paper uses dynamic panel data methods to examine the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Greek banking sector, separately for each loan category (consumer loans, business loans and mortgages). The study is motivated by the hypothesis that both macroeconomic and bank-specific variables have an effect on loan quality and that these effects vary between different loan categories. The results show that, for all loan categories, NPLs in the Greek banking system can be explained mainly by macroeconomic variables (GDP, unemployment, interest rates, public debt) and management quality. Differences in the quantitative impact of macroeconomic factors among loan categories are evident, with non-performing mortgages being the least responsive to changes in the macroeconomic conditions.     

The recent reform of European governance: A critical review

This paper investigates whether the recent EU governance reform is a step in the right direction and discusses its ability to restore European financial stability. The authors argue that the reform appears incapable of dealing with the factors responsible for the sovereign debt crisis, and they stress the need for financial sector reforms and sound fiscal policies. To that end, the adoption of national fiscal rules seems capable of dealing with the profligacy of governments and tackling the problem of deficit bias. Regarding the introduction of the new Excessive Imbalance Procedure, this article argues that EU authorities should adopt a symmetric approach instead of the one currently being pursued.     

Leading indicators of non-performing loans in Greece: the information content of macro-, micro- and bank-specific variables

We examine the information content of a unique set of macroeconomic, bank-specific, market and credit registry variables as regards their ability to forecast non-performing loans using a panel data set of nine Greek banks. We distinguish between business, consumer and mortgage loans and investigate their differences with respect to their optimal predictors. The quasi-AIM approach (Carson et al. in Int J Forecast 27:923–941, 2010) is utilized in order to take into account heterogeneity across banks and minimize estimation uncertainty. In addition, we calculate a number of forecasting measures in order to take into account the policy makers’ preferences. We find that market variables, specifically the supermarket sales, confidence indices for the services and construction sector and the business sentiment index represent good forecasting variables for most categories of NPLs. In addition, industrial production is the optimal predictor for consumer NPLs and imports for business NPLs. Finally, bank-specific variables represent top-performing leading indicators for business NPLs. Our results have significant implications for stress-testing credit risk in a top-down manner and for supervisory and macro-prudential policy design.     

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities,forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.     

How transparency affects investment-linked insurance products

Investment-linked insurance products exhibit a series of advantages versus direct investments, such as accumulation of retirement funds, tax benefits, and waiver of premiums in the case of disability. However, they are perceived as more complex and difficult compared to plain investments. Consequently, there is a need for disclosures, so that retail investors - insured can make well-informed decisions. Such disclosures have so far been uncoordinated. The EU has identified the need for uniform transparency rules in the packaged retail and insurance-based investment products market. The EU made an effort to enhance protection for investors - insured via a regulation effective in 2017. Such an effort is expected to restore retail investor confidence lost in the aftermath of the crisis. In this paper we attempt to quantify the effect of the existing transparency rules in the various member states to have an indication of what to expect as soon as the new uniform rules are implemented. We use customer satisfaction and trust so as to measure the effect of transparency. We find that increased transparency positively affects both measures.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU: The Role of Bilateral Trade and FDI

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of business cycle (BC) synchronization across 21 (old and new) countries of the enlarged European Union (EU). It utilizes international data to evaluate the linkages among bilateral trade in goods, bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and BC co‐movements. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the relationship using the latest available data (sample range: 1998–2011), and thus taking into account the European sovereign debt crisis period. It also examines the role of FDI, which though increasingly important in the flows of international production factors, is currently neglected by the literature. Preliminary results show that FDI has no direct effect on BC synchronization while international trade helps to synchronize BCs but only before the recent financial crisis (pre‐2008) and only for the traditional EU countries.     

Die Voraussetzungen der Handelsbilanzsanierung durch Inlandserzeugung von bisher eingeführten und von bisher nicht ausgeführten Gütern

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Decentralization of Pareto optima in economies with public projects,nonessential private goods and convex costs

Summary In the theory of economies with public goods one usually considers the case in which private goods are essential, i.e., each agent receives a fixed minimum level of utility if he consumes no private goods, irrespective of the public goods consumed. This paper develops the second welfare theorem for economies with public projects and possibly inessential private goods. As a corollary we also derive conditions under which valuation equilibria exist.hank Dolf Talman and an anonymous referee for many useful remarks and annotations of a previous draft of this paper.