The irrelevant-menu affect on valuation

Three experiments are designed to test if the level of irrelevant prizes in the menu has a positive (assimilation) or negative (contrast) effect on the perceived valuation of target objects. Familiar field prizes and binary lotteries over such prizes are placed within “more-expensive” and “less-expensive” menus. Subjects fill-in a sequence of binary choice problems to reveal their preference between given cash and a designated prize from the menu. Between-subject comparisons reveal that the prize-level in the menu positively affects perceived valuations in spite of procedural attempts to rule out menu-dependent preferences and prohibit experimenter bias. The effect also shows within-subject in auction experiments: the price that subjects are willing to pay for given monetary lotteries significantly increases with the average payoff in the irrelevant-menu. The bias finally manifests even when subjects are led to choose the target lottery, independently, from the underlying menu.     

Discussion of “The Role of Volatility in Forecasting”

Review of Accounting Studies -     

Relative valuation of U.S. insurance companies

This study examines the accuracy of relative valuation methods in the U.S. insurance industry, using price as a proxy for intrinsic value. The approaches differ in terms of the fundamentals used, the adjustments made to the fundamentals, the use of conditioning variables, and the selection of comparables. Selected findings include the following. First, over the last decade, book value multiples have performed significantly better than earnings multiples in valuing insurance companies. Second, inconsistent with the practice of many analysts, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income from book value worsens rather than improves valuation accuracy. Third, as expected, using income before special items, instead of reported income, improves valuation accuracy, but, surprisingly, excluding realized investment gains and losses does not. An exception to this latter result occurred during the financial crisis, likely due to an increase in “gains trading.” Fourth, conditioning the price-to-book ratio on return on equity significantly improves the valuation accuracy of book value multiples. Finally, while valuations based on analysts’ earnings forecasts outperform those based on reported earnings or book value, the gap between the valuation performance of forecasted EPS and the conditional price-to-book approach was relatively small during the last decade.     

The Information Value of Bond Ratings

We test whether bond ratings contain pricing-relevant information by examining security price reactions to Moody's refinement of its rating system, which was not accompanied by any fundamental change in issuers' risks, was not preceded by any announcement, and was carried simultaneously for all bonds. We find that rating information does not affect firm value, but that debt value increases (decreases) and equity value falls (rises) when Moody's announces better- (worse-) than-expected ratings. We also find that when Moody's announces better- (worse-) than-expected ratings, the volatilities implied by prices of options on the fine-rated issuers' shares decline (rise).     

Stock Return Predictability and Asset Pricing Models

This article develops an asset allocation framework that incorporatesprior beliefs about the extent of stock return predictabilityexplained by asset pricing models. We find that when prior beliefsallow even minor deviations from pricing model implications,the resulting asset allocations depart considerably from andsubstantially outperform allocations dictated by either theunderlying models or the sample evidence on return predictability.Under a wide range of beliefs about model pricing abilities,asset allocations based on conditional models outperform theirunconditional counterparts that exclude return predictability.     

Equity Valuation Using Multiples

We examine the valuation performance of a comprehensive list of value drivers and find that multiples derived from forward earnings explain stock prices remarkably well: pricing errors are within 15 percent of stock prices for about half our sample. In terms of relative performance, the following general rankings are observed consistently each year: forward earnings measures are followed by historical earnings measures, cash flow measures and book value of equity are tied for third, and sales performs the worst. Curiously, performance declines when we consider more complex measures of intrinsic value based on short-cut residual income models. Contrary to the popular view that different industries have different "best" multiples, these overall rankings are observed consistently for almost all industries examined. Since we require analysts' earnings and growth forecasts and positive values for all measures, our results may not be representative of the many firm-years excluded from our sample.     

Properties of the utility function: A market-based analysis

Using US market data, this paper sheds new empirical light on properties of the utility function. In particular, employing theoretical relations between Stochastic Discount Factors, state prices, and state probabilities, we are successful in recovering the following four functions: (i) Absolute Risk Aversion (ARA); (ii) Absolute Risk Tolerance (ART); (iii) Absolute Prudence (AP); and (iv) Absolute Temperance (AT). Our statistical analysis points out, unequivocally, that the ARA function is decreasing and convex, the ART function is convex, AT is greater than ARA, and the AP function is not decreasing. These empirical results are analyzed in light of established theory concerning, inter-alia, precautionary saving and prudence as well as the way risk attitudes are affected by the presence of “background risks” and by investors’ investment horizon.     

Credit ratings and the cross-section of stock returns

Low credit risk firms realize higher returns than high credit risk firms. This is puzzling because investors seem to pay a premium for bearing credit risk. The credit risk effect manifests itself due to the poor performance of low-rated stocks (which account for 4.2% of total market capitalization) during periods of financial distress. Around rating downgrades, low-rated firms experience considerable negative returns amid strong institutional selling, whereas returns do not differ across credit risk groups in stable or improving credit conditions. The evidence for the credit risk effect points towards mispricing generated by retail investors and sustained by illiquidity and short sell constraints.     

Hedge funds,managerial skill,and macroeconomic variables

This paper evaluates hedge fund performance through portfolio strategies that incorporate predictability based on macroeconomic variables. Incorporating predictability substantially improves out-of-sample performance for the entire universe of hedge funds as well as for various investment styles. While we also allow for predictability in fund risk loadings and benchmark returns, the major source of investment profitability is predictability in managerial skills. In particular, long-only strategies that incorporate predictability in managerial skills outperform their Fung and Hsieh (2004) benchmarks by over 17% per year. The economic value of predictability obtains for different rebalancing horizons and alternative benchmark models. It is also robust to adjustments for backfill bias, incubation bias, illiquidity, fund termination, and style composition.