中国长期护理保险不同筹资模式研究

在人口老龄化和失能化程度加深、长期护理保险试点地区制度碎片化和差异化的背景下,探究不同筹资模式对于建立覆盖全民、城乡统筹的长期护理保险具有重要意义.文章利用多期微观跟踪调查数据,刻画了中国老年人健康状态转换的规律,并基于"七普"数据和年龄移算法,测算了2020-2040年失能老年群体的规模和结构.文章进一步基于社会保险精算平衡理论,构建了筹资模式为现收现付制和三种混合制下的动态精算模型,模拟了城镇职工和城乡居民长期护理保险未来20年的均衡费率和缴费额.研究发现,在相同的筹资模式下,城镇职工长期护理保险的均衡费率低于城乡居民,但缴费额高于城乡居民.均衡费率较低的城镇职工长期护理保险更适合采用具有一定积累功能的混合制,以应对人口失能化高峰时期可能出现的支出缺口;城乡居民长期护理保险则更适合采用现收现付制,现阶段各筹资主体的缴费压力较小,且制度运行成本较低,在推广初期比较容易被接受.文章的研究丰富了我国社会长期护理保险的精算研究,对于正在推广的长期护理保险试点的筹资体制建设具有重要意义.     

The Paradox of Openness: How Product and Patenting Experience Affect R&D Sourcing in China?

External R&D sourcing may help firms compete in an environment characterized by rapid technological changes. Yet, prior studies have produced conflicting findings on how a firm's technological experience affects the extent to which the firm engages in external R&D sourcing. Although many highlight that firms with extensive technological experience are equipped with more technological knowledge, collaborative skills, and absorptive capacity, encouraging greater levels of external R&D, others suggest the opposite due to potential exchange hazards and partnership conflicts. Adopting an external partner's perspective, the current study reconsiders this “paradox of openness” by analyzing how a focal firm's product experience and patenting experience affect an external partner's tendency to provide external R&D services to the focal firm. Specifically, this study explore how a focal firm's knowledge protectiveness and tacitness embedded in its product and patenting experience influences the external partners' motivation for knowledge transfer. This study predicts that a firm's product experience increases the focal firm's external R&D sourcing because it provides high levels of knowledge tacitness and external openness and can encourage external partners to share and exchange knowledge with the focal firm. In contrast, a firm's patenting experience decreases the focal firm's external R&D sourcing because it denotes knowledge explicitness and protectiveness and may discourage external partners to share and exchange knowledge with the focal firm. This study further predicts that patenting experience has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between product experience and external R&D sourcing. Using a data set of 575 high‐tech firms in China, this study finds support for our predictions. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the knowledge‐based view and technology entrepreneurship in emerging markets.     

基于工作过程的高职《航运业务操作》课程开发实践

基于工作过程课程开发思路,在航运企业人才需求及职业岗位调研基础上,根据典型岗位工作内容选取《航运业务操作》课程内容,根据航运企业业务流程优化课程内容,采用适合高职学生特点的教学方法和手段,进行教学实施并不断优化,着重培养高职学生的职业能力。     

供应链中需求风险和汇率风险的传导及节点企业价值评价

基于批发价合同构建了一个三级供应链模型,用单位业绩风险表征供应链节点企业每单位期望业绩所承担的风险,讨论了需求风险和汇率风险对供应链节点企业的单位业绩风险的影响。从风险厌恶型投资者的角度,以均值-方差模型为基础,讨论了风险厌恶型投资者对供应链各节点企业的价值评价。均衡结果表明:在供应链节点企业中,制造商的单位业绩风险最大,零售商(供应商)的单位业绩风险与反应(决策)灵活性反向变动;供应链节点企业的单位业绩风险随着需求波动程度和汇率波动程度的增大而增大;在供应链节点企业中,风险厌恶型投资者对制造商的单位业绩效用评价最小,对零售商(供应商)的单位业绩效用评价与反应(决策)灵活性程度同向变动。研究结果从理论上表明:一方面,供应链中的需求风险和汇率风险可通过引致供应链中各节点企业运作决策(变量)波动而在节点企业间传导;另一方面,供应链节点企业的单位业绩风险与风险厌恶型投资者对节点企业的价值评价相关,即供应链节点企业的单位业绩风险越大,则风险厌恶型投资者对节点企业的单位业绩效用评价越小。     

Range has it: decoding the information content of forecast ranges

Range forecasts have emerged as the predominant form of management forecasts, but prior research has overlooked the information conveyed by forecast ranges. This study fills this void by examining the information content of the extent to which managers’ forecast ranges overlap with the range of individual analysts’ pre-existing estimates (i.e., overlap). We expect managers to signal their superior private information by issuing low-overlap forecasts. We predict and find that, compared with high-overlap forecasts, low-overlap forecasts are associated with stronger market reactions and higher accuracy of management forecasts relative to analyst estimates. Moreover, when responding to low-overlap management forecasts, analysts with prior estimates out of management forecast ranges are more likely to revise into the management forecast range, less likely to revise toward the consensus, and more likely to improve in revised forecast accuracy. Our findings suggest that investors and analysts view low-overlap management forecasts as signals of superior private information.     

推进房产税改革,促进房地产业健康发展

房价的高企,带来了房地产业的繁荣,也带来了贫富差距扩大、资源浪费等社会问题。文章通过分析房产税在房地产业健康发展中的作用,评述了我国沪渝两市房产税改革试点尚存在的问题及原因,提出了推进房产税改革的建议:完善房产税税制设计;加快房地产信息管理建设;建立健全房地产评估机构;完善配套政策,化解改革阻力。     

The Relationship between Political Tensions,Trade and Capital Flows in ASEAN Plus Three

We estimate the effects of political tension on trade and capital flows in ASEAN Plus Three countries in the framework of a gravity model. We quantify political tension through text‐parsing software reading daily Reuters’ articles from 1990 to 2013 and exclude Brunei and Laos due to sparsity of news coverage. Regarding bilateral trade, we find that political conflict, measured by negative reports in Reuters’ articles, seems to only affect bilateral trade between countries that are not both members of the World Trade Organization (WTO). For these countries, a 1 per cent rise in the tension score results in a 0.05 per cent decline in trade. There is weaker evidence that improvement in bilateral relationship, measured by positive reports in Reuters’ articles, is associated with more trade. As for capital flows, while long‐term capital flows, measured by foreign direct investment, appear to be unaffected by short‐term tensions, both a non‐democratic government and a history of war negatively affect FDI.     

Toward Sustainable Livelihoods: Investigating the Drivers of Purchase Behavior for Green Products

Green consumption involves comprehensive concerns that address the broad scope of sustainability, ecosystem balance, profit‐generation and people. Identifying the factors that influence consumers' purchase behavior enables manufacturers to understand consumers' decision‐making processes and can help them develop more environmentally beneficial products. However, scholars have recently found that a gap exists between environmental concern and consumers' actual purchase behavior. The purpose of this paper is to use cognitive behavior theory to investigate the drivers of green consumption behavior and the missing link in the concern–behavior gap. After collecting 375 valid questionnaires, this study validated the proposed conceptual model using structural equation modeling. The revised model indicates that environmental involvement, informational utility, green advertising skepticism and green trust are antecedent variables of consumer attitudes toward green products. Additionally, this study also provides a possible explanation of and remedies for the concern–behavior gap. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Exploring the roles of self-concept and future memory at consumer events: the application of an extended Mehrabian–Russell model

This study aimed to extend Mehrabian and Russell’s stimulus–organism–response (S-O-R) framework to consumer events. Physical environment and staff interaction were evaluated as stimuli which impact event attendees’ self-concept and memory (organism), and lead to behavioral intention (response). Data were collected from the surveys completed by 449 attendees of Armada event. The findings confirmed the impact of physical environment on self-concept and memory, as well as the mediation effect of memory between self-concept and behavioral intention. The study is a pioneer in the application of an extended S-O-R framework with the inclusion of memory.     

What makes a motorsports event enjoyable? The case of Macau Grand Prix

This article aims to identify the key product attributes that make a motorsport event enjoyable. Using data collected in the 2010 Macau Grand Prix, a factor analysis was conducted on 15 variables that spectators were asked of their level of agreement to how these elements constitute an enjoyable event. The analysis returned four major variables of a product that spectators believe will make an enjoyable motorsport event, specifically, event amenities, event aesthetics, event ambience, and event tickets. This study contributes to the understanding of event product attributes.